HockeyRebuilding Battle of Ontario looks promising

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(Frank Gunn/Canadian Press)

This Week's Work: Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators (Saturday, CBC, CBCSports.ca, 7 p.m. ET)

The Script

Toronto is hanging in the playoff race by a thread, five points back of eighth spot in the East, while Ottawa is 14th, 17 points out and 12 behind the Leafs.

Yet fans of the teams seem more excited about what they're seeing now than at any point in the season. Perhaps because, while they can't guarantee a playoff spot, both can legitimately offer hope.

So while the Leafs cling to the "faint hope" clause and the Sens' housecleaning seems nearing an end, it's an interesting night to assess which team is further ahead in the rebuild.

The signing of Craig Anderson has given Senator fans cause to wonder if all they really needed was a goaltender. A moot point since the changes have already been made, but Anderson has been brilliant and now must show a consistency that hasn't marked his career. If he stumbles, it's likely Robin Lehner is next in line.

Toronto, through injury, accelerated the development of James Reimer and now hope, after so little pro experience, that he's ready to stay in place as a No. 1 netminder. The starter job will be his in the fall, and it will be interesting to see if the Leafs hedge their bets, possibly getting an experienced backup or keep Jonas Gustavsson in the mix, who has become the forgotten goalie for Toronto this season .

The Senators still have veteran defencemen Sergei Gonchar, Filip Kuba, Chris Phillips and Matt Carkner under contract for next season, but they'll want to give Erik Karlsson most of the ice time, and may try to find room for at least one or two of Brian Lee,  Patrick Wiercioch, David Rundblad and Jared Cowen. There appears to be riches on the blue-line with time to let a couple of them mature in the minors.

The Leafs' future defence is already playing. Four defenders are 25 or under, and Dion Phaneuf, Keith Aulie, Luke Schenn and Carl Gunnarsson could be locked in for the future. Mike Komisarek is signed long-term and Jake Gardner will get a chance to make the team next season. There probably won't be room for others, as changes to the defence have already been made.

Up front, Ottawa has something the Leafs sorely lack. Jason Spezza often gets the blame for everything wrong with the Senators, but he's a No. 1 centre who, at times, is brilliant in the job.  

Daniel Alfredsson and Milan Michalek give the Sens other legitimate top-six forwards, and then it's the audition of the college boys.

College signings Erik Condra, Colin Greening, Bobby Butler and now Stephane da Costa all offer hope for a quick transition from the days of Mike Fisher and Alex Kovalev, but it's too soon to trumpet success.  

Remember, the Leafs signed Tyler Bozak, Viktor Stalberg and Christian Hanson out of college recently, and only Bozak is still with the team -- and he got the job by acclimation.  

The Senator collegians are older and a little more seasoned, but they still must withstand a test of time.

Toronto has a line of Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin and Clarke MacArthur that can be its first or at worst a solid second. They'll need a centre, likely from outside the organization, to play with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul, and have lots of cap space and draft picks to get even more help up front.

Between these two teams, they'll finish the season with 17 players who weren't around at the outset. Short-term, you'd probably give Ottawa an edge based on experience, but down the road it's a toss-up and the rebuilding Battle of Ontario looks promising.

In the Spotlight

If the teams have a spelling bee, take the Senators. If there's a disputed word take Francis Lessard! With the latest additions, Ottawa has eight players from U.S. colleges and three of the last four have graduated. Colin Greening (Cornell), Bobby Butler (UNH), and Erik Condra (Notre Dame) all played a full four years before coming to Ottawa, so they're approaching their mid-twenties and are a little more worldly than most rookies.

The most interesting one out of the bunch is Greening, whose path to the NHL started in Newfoundland, went to Upper Canada College in Toronto with a stop in Nanaimo (BCHL) before he became the captain and an honours student at Cornell.  

Upper Canada College is noted more for chief justices (seven) and premiers (four) than hockey players, so it is fitting that Greening should play in Ottawa, where he's now one of hundreds of highly-educated graduates hoping to be a full-time Senator.

On the Hot Stove

Toronto GM Brian Burke has already said that Ron Wilson will be back to coach the Leafs next season. The team's second half would suggest he deserves the chance, but if they don't clean up defensive play and special teams (see stat pack below) they'll have trouble getting a lot better. Wilson would probably suggest good goaltending will look after some of that, but James Reimer has yet to score on the power play.

In Ottawa, Cory Clouston might not survive the election, since it's perceived his inability to connect with veteran players was paramount to his party's collapse. Then again, he's shown in the past that he's structured and can teach -- and some of the players who knew everything already are either gone or going.

But don't take the over on the number of days he has remaining.

Outtakes

Since his most recent recall from the minors, Toronto's Nazem Kadri has fit nicely on the left wing with journeymen Darryl Boyce and Joey Crabb. He seems better for not trying to show he can dangle with top-line players, yet his shootout goal in Boston highlighted his skill, which is the most promising aspect of his future.

Of the seven players on the Senators who spent most of this season in Binghamton of the AHL, the best season has belonged to Condra at 11 goals and 27 assists, but he's only slightly ahead of the other college grads. Greening has 14 goals and 23 assists and Butler  has 22 goals and 11 assists.

From the Stat Pack

On their impressive run since the all star break, the Leafs have been much better 5-on-5 (61 goals-for, 47 goals-against since Feb. 1), but not appreciably better on the power play or penalty kill.

Whether an indictment of talent, coaching, or both, goals-against and special teams have to be better than they've been in the past three seasons if the Leafs are going to improve from here.

Season             Goals against rank        PP       PK

2008-09                        30                     16        30

2009-10                        29                     30        30

2010-11                        25                     24        26

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