HockeyMaple Leafs have little margin for error now

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(Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press)

Read up on the latest tidbits and trends as Hockey Night in Canada's play-by-play voice Jim Hughson takes you behind the scenes and into Saturday's featured game.

This Week's Work: Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs (Saturday, CBC, CBCSports.ca, 7 p.m. ET, 4 p.m. PT)

The script

Thursday conspired against the Toronto Maple Leafs. At about the same time the Leafs were falling 3-2 at home to the Philadelphia Flyers, Brad Boyes scored in overtime to give Buffalo a come-from-behind 4-3 win in Boston.

So instead of being two points back of the Sabres and playing to pull even, the Leafs are now six back and playing to stay in the race.

Such are the swings and perils of March hockey in the NHL.

Toronto's margin for error is now significantly reduced. The Leafs will need at least 22 points from their final 14 games for a shot at eighth spot in the East.

They were 6-3-5 over their last 14 games. Duplicating that won't be easy -- it also won't be enough. They'll likely need at least 10 wins.

Buffalo, meantime, looks at first blush like one of the Eastern Conference stragglers that might make the playoffs or might miss them, and if they do get in they'll be fodder for the first-place Flyers anyway.

But the Sabres might actually be this year's Flyers -- better than the seventh or eighth seed they're likely to be.

The Sabres, remember, were awful to start the season. They lost their first seven home games, and had just two wins in their first 13 overall. But since Dec. 1 only five teams in the league have a better record, and only two in the Eastern Conference -- Boston and Philadelphia. The Sabres beat them both the last time they met them.

Buffalo is spreading scoring around just enough, Tyler Myers has found last year's game, Ryan Miller is steady as ever in goal and everyone is as giddy as can be about new owner Terry Pegula, who's already given the team Boyes and a new carpet in the dressing room.

The lineup doesn't look like much, but it's well-coached and seldom outworked. Pretty soon, even Lindy Ruff might have reason to smile.

In the spotlight

On the heels of a remarkable 41-win Vezina Trophy season, it's easy to view this one as a letdown for Ryan Miller. Upon further examination though, he hasn't changed much.

Like the rest of the team, Miller got off to a slow start, winning just three of his first 10 starts, but since then he's steadily recaptured his game. He plays a lot, is playing well, and he almost always beats the Leafs.

The great fear about Miller is shared by a lot of teams who rely on just one goalie. He plays too much and might wear out. The Sabres have only four wins from a backup goaltender, and none from Patrick Lalime, who doesn't even play anymore. Jonas Enroth has all four backup victories but he barely plays either.

Miller has had only two nights off since Nov. 26. In other words, he's played in 42 of the last 44 games. He might be six-foot-two and 125 pounds by the end of the season.

Nonetheless, despite suffering a rare loss to the Leafs when last they met, check out these gaudy numbers against Toronto and the Northeast Division.

Miller vs. Leafs: 24-9-0, 2.18 GAA, .931 SV%

Miller at Air Canada Centre: 11-4-0, 2.25 GAA, .927 SV%

Miller vs Northeast: 11-4-1, 2.16 GAA, .931 SV%

On the Hot Stove

Whether it's prospect Joe Colborne or Nazem Kadri, or someone from outside like, say, Brad Richards, the Leaf game cries out for a number one centre. Especially when they lose to the Flyers, who have four centres who'd likely have top billing on most teams.

Henrik Sedin is the assist leader among centres with 63, Sidney Crosby hasn't played in two and a half months and has 34, while the Maple Leafs' top two centres combined have 39 -- and Mikhail Grabovski has 25 of those.

Phil Kessel seems at his best when he can give-and-go, but if he gives and doesn't get the puck back he goes solo and soon the scoring just dries up.

The last time he went four games without a goal the slump stretched to 14 games. If that happens again, the Leafs are surely done -- and we all know they are kind of crispy as it is.

Outtakes

Brad Boyes will be back in his hometown of Toronto with the Sabres, his fourth NHL team.

Well, actually it's his fifth, but he never played a game for his first team.

Toronto drafted Boyes as a first-rounder from the Erie Otters, but traded him to San Jose with Alyn McCauley for Owen Nolan before he ever played a game.

The Leafs got 26 goals in just over a season from Nolan in their rent-a-player days, while Boyes went from the Sharks to Boston and on to St Louis before being traded to the Sabres at the deadline this season.

Right now he's a useful point-per-game man, playing centre primarily with Tyler Ennis and an assortment of right wingers.

Bonus outtake

There have been 167 coaching changes in the NHL since Lindy Ruff got the job in Buffalo.

From the stat pack

Because they've been outside the playoff pack for much of the season, few noticed how well Buffalo has played since the year became 2011.

Top teams since Jan. 1 (as of March 10)

Vancouver: 32-9-6, .745

Philadelphia: 27-13-2, .667

San Jose: 28-14-3, .656

Boston: 26-12-7, .656

Calgary: 26-13-5, .641

Buffalo: 24-13-5, .631

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