HockeyNothing's clear when it comes to Winnipeg

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Fans hold up signs as the Phoenix Coyotes warmup before an NHL game against the Anaheim Ducks earlier this season. According to a report in The Arizona Republic, the financially-troubled Coyotes have lost $40 million US this season. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

If there's one thing we've learned about Winnipeg, Phoenix or Atlanta, it's anyone who claims they know what's going to happen is kidding themselves, and you.

All I can say is this: When the Winnipeg rumours surfaced last season, plenty of people who know a helluva lot more than I do said such discussion was premature. Now, those same people believe that while relocation is not the NHL's preferred option, there is a realization the time is coming.

On Sunday, The Arizona Republic reported the Coyotes have lost $40 million US this season. That would push Matthew's Hulsizer's purchase price to $210 million. Of course, Hulsizer might not be able to close the deal because Glendale's about to become Lawsuit City in its battle with corporate watchdog The Goldwater Institute.

"No offence to the Coyotes," said one source, "but who would really want to get into the middle of that?"

The team's on- and off-ice employees deserve much better, but the NHL's other owners want closure. You'll remember, Glendale pledged to fund $25 million in losses for this season, but the newspaper's figure beats that, significantly. And now, we've got another five-alarm blaze in Georgia.

Like any Canadian, I'd love to see the Jets (and Nordiques) return. However, there are some legitimate questions to ask. Winnipeggers won't like this, but there is some significant skepticism despite their passion. The NHL's done several detailed analyses of the market. (I'm aware of two, apparently, there were more.) According to a couple of sources, the league estimates revenues of approximately $70 million per season. That would be lowest among Canadian teams.

Ask several financial wizards if you can survive in the NHL with $70 million (plus any additional monies from a very successful MTS Centre), and many of the answers are negative. Luckily for Winnipeg, the only ones that matter belong to the prospective owners, Mark Chipman and the Thomson family.

"Anyone who thinks they are committing $170 million to this without believing they can make it work is wrong. They know what they're doing," says one Manitoba supporter. (That figure is the purchase price for the Winnipeg group.)

The good news is that $70 million in revenues would double Phoenix's totals and be approximately $20 million more than Atlanta's. And, even though the Jets would be a revenue-sharing team, other owners would find that much more palatable than funding losses.

The feel-good story in the NHL right now is Buffalo. The Sabres are re-energized by an owner who walked in, teared up at the sight of Gilbert Perreault and pledged to build a champion. In Chipman and the Thomsons, the Jets have that passion and financial power.

That's the difference between Winnipeg and Phoenix, which has a prospective owner who is drowning in legal quicksand. That's the difference between Winnipeg and Atlanta, in an emergency search for investors. Gary Bettman's proven over and over again that only a fool underestimates him in hopeless-looking situations.

But, across the NHL, a northern wind is blowing.

30 THOUGHTS
 
1. I was going to write about how, if Columbus made the playoffs, Rick Nash deserves the Hart Trophy. However, the Blue Jackets' West Coast trip probably killed that. So, here's another one: If New Jersey completes the miracle run, how deserving will Ilya Kovalchuk be?

2. A couple of scouts have said there are four players who could go first overall in this draft, depending on a team's needs. "Picking fourth could be just as good as picking first," one said. Looks like there are five teams (OTT, EDM, NYI, COL, FLA) in contention.

3. The players: Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, Adam Larsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

4. Kurtis Foster told a fantastic story about the only time he saw Steven Stamkos get upset. In the final game of last season, Stamkos was at 50 goals with Tampa leading Florida 2-1. Late in the third, Bryan McCabe took a penalty, which Foster negated with a cross-check at 19:41. Stamkos gave him the stink-eye all the way to the box, but the Panthers pulled the goalie to go for the equalizer. That allowed him to score an empty-netter for number 51, and a share of the Rocket Richard with Sidney Crosby. "I had felt so bad about taking the penalty but it ended up working in the end," wrote Foster in an email.

5. As Peewees, Stamkos played on Toronto's Young Canadiens with PK Subban. There was a third future NHLer on that team: Vancouver's Chris Tanev. Tanev's father, Mike, took the calculated risk of pulling Chris out of minor hockey for two years in favour of high-school play. Chris hit a growth spurt and ended up at the Rochester Institute of Technology where the Canucks fought to sign him after a great freshman year. Mike Tanev is trying the same process with Chris's brother, Brandon.

6. Steve Yzerman received much praise for acquiring Simon Gagne, but the real key was unloading Matt Walker, who has two more years with a $1.7 million cap hit. Same for Dan Ellis, who had another year at $1.5 million. Those moves provide more flexibility to extend Stamkos, although a lot of work remains on that one.

7. Tough to handicap the coaching situation while the GM position is still unknown, but Kurt Kleinendorst should be considered in Ottawa. His AHL call-ups are playing so well, and many of them will be in the NHL full-time next season.

8. Marty Turco on Jonathan Toews: "He's what you see from outside, and more. All he cares about is the team. He knows what we need and he brings it every shift."

9. Patrick Sharp was named as one of the city's 50 most beautiful people by Chicago Magazine. "Don't tell my teammates you're going to show it," he said. 'I've taken enough abuse." Then he added, "Toews got a spread in a different edition, but at least I can tell him mine was for my looks."

10. Blackhawks broadcaster Troy Murray had some really good insight into Chicago's recent successes. One of the reasons the team was so dominant last year was that it spent so little time in its zone. That makes the minutes much easier on defencemen. The recent line changes brought similar results. It's going to be very important going forward, because Corey Crawford's one flaw is he doesn't play the puck very well.

11. Taylor Hall won't win Rookie of the Year. But, if you polled 30 NHL coaches/GMs, I'd bet the majority would pick him as the rookie they'd want.

12. Understand Tom Renney wants to set the bar high in Edmonton, but premature playoff talk is exactly what got Brian Burke in trouble in Toronto. Fans understand these are big-time rebuilds. If it happens, great. If not, as long as you're competing hard, that's OK. You have to be patient.

13. James Reimer's tutor was Andy Nowicki, who was with Los Angeles before the Red Deer Rebels. Nowicki taught Reimer "The 5 Rs" to deal with goals against. In order (Nowicki's comments included), Review: "Your mind is a TV set tuned to the goaltender channel," think why the puck went in. Release Negative: "Grab the water bottle, take a short skate, breathe or use self-talk." Reload: "Get back into your proper position." Refocus: "Check who is out there. Is the left-winger a left shot? Is there a right shot on the right wing?" Finally, Relentless Energy: "Be positive. Your body language is noticed by the team."

14. Nowicki also grades goals against by three criteria: "Tough to Stop," "Decent Goal But Stoppable" and "Bad Goal."

15. All of the Maple Leaf fans have noticed this, but Reimer is going to have to work long-term on holding his glove hand higher. Teams are beginning to shoot at that area, and if NHLers have the time, they'll hit the spot.

16. Asked Nikolai Kulemin (24 goals) if it would mean anything to pass Alexander Ovechkin (25). "I don't care about that ... unless he scores 50 or 60."

17. About a decade ago, I witnessed an argument between then-Rangers coach John Muckler and a couple of the team's beat reporters about former New York first-round pick Manny Malhotra. They wanted to know why Malhotra wasn't getting first-line minutes. Muckler argued he was a third-line centre, and will be "a good one." Retroactively, he won that argument.

18. Dan Bylsma and Dave Tippett finished first and third, respectively, as "coaches you'd most like to play for" in the CBC/NHLPA player poll. Zbynek Michalek has played for both. "They are very positive. When you make a mistake, they correct it before getting angry at you ... They won't yell at you until you do it five or six times," he laughed.

19. Michalek said he'd never seen Bylsma really get angry, but said penalties late in games are guaranteed to drive Tippett crazy. We talked the morning after Radim Vrbata took one that led to Jamie Benn's winner in a 3-2 Phoenix defeat. "That kind of penalty," I asked? "Yes," Michalek smiled.

20. Sometime before his career is over, Kris Letang is going to win a Norris or two. One of the reasons he's improved is that he takes things a lot more seriously, but Bylsma adds, "He's only halfway to where he can be."

21. One opposing coach says Milan Lucic is having a big year because he's not running around as much. "Look at the hit totals," he said. Lucic is on-pace for 180 this season. Last year, his 82-game prorated total was 241. In 2008-09, he had 262. 

22. There are some good things going on with the Islanders: 19 points in their last 14 games, developing Michael Grabner, really impressive work from their two goaltending gurus (Mike Dunham and Sudarshan Maharaj). Jack Capuano is earning the full-time job. The organization must recognize all the craziness is completely overshadowing that.

23. Meanwhile, the Islanders can extend John Tavares this summer. Extremely curious to see if he does it. He could finish Top 20 in scoring and is really coming on.

24. Antti Niemi's new contract (four years, $15.2 million) will have an interesting effect on the goaltender's market. You have to expect Ilya Bryzgalov will shoot higher than that, and if you're Ottawa, what does it mean for Craig Anderson? "He's got a new lease on life," according to one coach.

25. But others warn there will be more cost-efficient alternatives if someone aims too high. Dwayne Roloson (assuming Tampa does not re-sign him beforehand) is obvious. Another interesting one could be Tomas Vokoun. Depending on what Florida does, would Vokoun go to the right situation for a little less money?

26. Before the season, when I asked around for examples of AHL players ready to make an impact, Manitoba GM Craig Heisinger suggested Matt Calvert. No one else picked him. Nice call.

27. Yesterday, Devils coach Jacques Lemaire told reporters he could no longer ignore Brian Rolston in the shootout because the forward basically stood up and stared at him. Reminded me of a story Craig Hartsburg told about the famous 2007 world junior shootout between Canada and the U.S. Hartsburg said he could tell who wanted to shoot - and who didn't - by their body language. The two who really wanted it? Toews, who scored three times, and Andrew Cogliano, who went one-for-one.

28. Update: Merrimack College centre Stephane Da Costa - the jewel of the NCAA's free-agent class - returned from a knee injury Friday with a three-point night as the Warriors beat Providence 6-1. He was rested Saturday, but will appear in the Hockey East playoffs this weekend. At least 20 teams have scouted him.

29. We overreact to bad weeks by good teams. Yes, that was an absolute eight-day stinker from the Flyers. But it should take more than four games to list an 85-point team as critical. Vancouver was worried about the Canucks on Friday and they conquered Southern California on the weekend.

30. Honest question: What did Two and a Half Men producer Oren Koules find harder, owning the Lightning or controlling Charlie Sheen?

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