HockeyKovalchuk biggest free-agent name, plus 30 thoughts

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He is the most unique free agent ever. Already with 338 goals at the age of 27, Ilya Kovalchuk has a chance to become one of the greatest scorers in NHL history. And, as more and more good young players choose to sign long-term extensions with their teams, it's possible Kovalchuk will be the biggest game-breaker to hit the market for a long time.

There is no one available this year - or potentially next year - with his ability to impact a game.

Undoubtedly that will be agent Jay Grossman's pitch (he declined to comment for this blog). But, the biggest issue in finding a new home will be a sticker shock. Kovalchuk reportedly turned down offers of $70 million US (over seven years) and $101 million (over 12) in Atlanta, which eliminates many teams who have the cap space, but not the will, to go there.

"He's not going to get that," one GM said. "I don't even see a team offering $8 million a year for eight years."

All it takes is one team to prove everyone wrong. The ironic thing is that Kovalchuk can do a lot to change the criticism about him if he signs for less than was available in Atlanta and makes an impact with his new team. His detractors say all he cares about is money. His supporters say he burns to prove he's a winner. This will be the best chance of his career to prove it.

"Unfortunately for him, he's entering the free-agent system at the worst time," said another executive. "There's more money committed to players than ever before. That's why you're seeing so many buyouts."

From talking to a few different people around the league, Kovalchuk's preference appears to be this: A bigger market, a long-term deal (one that's front-loaded for cap relief) and some good players to play with.

The Favourite

Los Angeles.

Most front-office types believe that if Kovalchuk remains in the NHL, it will be in LA.

"LA is the one sun belt franchise where a marquee player makes a difference," said our executive. "Shaquille O'Neal, Manny Ramirez. LA loves that star power." There is a belief the only players who really sell tickets in the NHL are Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin, so this would test that theory.

There are reports that Kings GM Dean Lombardi doesn't really want to go in this direction; that the Kovalchuk pursuit is the brainchild of CEO Tim Leiweke. This would not be the first time Leiweke's been accused of this. I was once told a story that Teemu Selanne was ready to sign with the Kings in 2005, only to be turned down in favour of Valeri Bure. It was claimed that Leiweke was more interested in Bure, because of wife Candace Cameron, the onetime Full House star.

I actually mentioned this in a 30 Thoughts column, only to be contacted by Kings PR man extraordinaire Mike Altieri, who wondered if I was under the influence of mind-altering drugs.
Whatever the case, you can make a real good hockey argument for Lombardi signing Kovalchuk.

The executive quoted above, also based in the Western Conference, sees a fit.
"The Kings need that type of player," he said, adding that with Kovalchuk, the result of their first-round series against Vancouver may have been different. "Plus, they've come a very long way, and there will be pressure on them to continue to move forward."

The Kings decided against trading for him last season because they felt their group, which showed special chemistry, deserved a chance to show what it could do before being broken up. Maybe adding without subtracting makes him a better fit.

The Incumbent

New Jersey.

"Russian players are really comfortable about playing in the New York/New Jersey area," said the Western Conference exec and there's no reason to believe Kovalchuk is any exception.
Lou Lamoriello tried hard to get a deal done before free agency began, but it was the player's desire to hit the market. Sources say he declined to trade Kovalchuk's rights, either, as a sign of how much the Devils want to keep him. And, apparently, Martin Brodeur is lobbying hard, too.

New Jersey is a team in transition, a miserable group at the end of last season. It appears as if there is going to be some kind of a change in philosophy. Signing him would rejuvenate a team that appears stale and has lost three consecutive first-round series. The major question: can the Devils afford both Kovalchuk and Zach Parise?

The Wild Card

St. Petersburg (KHL).

With a salary cap and extensions coming for Drew Doughty and possibly Jack Johnson, Lombardi can't totally open the vault. But, the KHL will.

"I think he'll go to Russia for a year," said one GM. One source said he'd heard there was a four-year deal worth $40 million in place with SKA St. Petersburg, but Kovalchuk must accept it by July 4. I don't believe that's true, simply because if he does decide to go home, the KHL will pay him a fortune even if he shows up in pajamas before the first game of the season.

However, salary-wise he'll do better in Russia than North America, especially with no escrow and a 13 per cent tax rate.

Personally, I believe he goes to Russia as a last resort.

Are they telling the truth?

Rangers, Toronto, St. Louis. Wasn't expecting to include any of these teams, but they were mentioned a couple of times, so I created this cover-my-bum category (This is a win-win for me, because I can say, "Hey, I didn't think it would happen," if it doesn't. Or, "I told you it was a possibility," if it does).

St. Louis is very intriguing. The Blues were in on the Kovalchuk trade sweepstakes until the very end, and almost got him. Sources say the team isn't as interested now ("that ship has sailed" was one quote I heard), even with $30 million in cap room. There are some important extensions coming up in the next two years, and ownership is restructuring.

The Rangers are telling anyone willing to listen that they won't be heavily involved in free agency. Problem: no one believes them. Why not? They missed the playoffs and they badly need someone to play with Marian Gaborik. John Tortorella also has great success with skilled offensive players.

I know, I know, cap space. But, as another GM says, "for him, I wouldn't be surprised if they buried guys in the minors."

I was shocked at how many execs believe Toronto will make a run. In the past year, Brian Burke cleared out Nik Antropov and Alexei Ponikarovsky because he felt they were guys who were happy with a 5-2 loss, as long as they got both goals. Kovalchuk certainly has battled that reputation. The rationale from outside? Some form of: Toronto's in trouble, needs offence and some excitement. Sure it's speculation, but these guys are smarter than I am. Maybe Burke fools us all.

Team I wrongly thought might be a fit

Anaheim.

A GM: "They won't sign him."

Me: "Why not?"

GM: "Because Randy Carlyle will kill him."

For some reason, I feel the need to note this conversation was not with Brian Burke.

The (very) dark horse

Washington.

Would George McPhee do it? Copy the Detroit/Hossa model and make Kovalchuk a one-year offer? At least one other team thinks so, and another GM who knows McPhee well says he could see the Capitals trying. A third wasn't so sure: "You think he'd choose Kovalchuk over a defenceman and a goalie?" (McPhee did tell The Washington Post Wednesday morning he preferred a centre, and was not interested in adding to the blue-line or in net).

"One thing, though," said one exec, "Hossa and Kovalchuk are very different people. Hossa would take a one-year deal to win. I'm not sure Kovalchuk would."

And, as noted above, a long-term deal is his preference. In a few days, we'll know Kovalchuk's choice. Choose wisely, young man. This will be a major step in defining your legacy.

30 thoughts

Things change so quickly, so forgive me if any go out of date when you read them:

1. There are a few players who amaze and astonish teammates with their commitment to fitness. Gary Roberts was one. Zdeno Chara and Pavel Datsyuk are two others. There was also Rod (The Bod) Brind'Amour. Another thing I really respected: Played 20 years and always carried that "People question how good I am" chip on the shoulder. Never, ever cheated anyone out of his best effort, even when his level dropped.

2. Some draft notes: Several GMs say that to be successful, you must have the conviction to grab the player you want even if it seems early. See: Columbus, Islanders, Atlanta.

3. One exec, on Steve Yzerman's selection of Brett Connolly, "If I was a first-year GM, I wouldn't have the guts to do that."

4. Florida's Erik Gudbranson is described as "18 going on 35." Not surprised then that Dale Tallon drafted him. Does that remind you of anyone else Tallon's selected? Like, maybe the guy who lifted the Stanley Cup this year?

5. I know some Rangers fans reached for the cyanide when New York took Dylan McIlrath, but a couple of scouts really raved about him. Said one, "A lot of teams were really coy about him; he was a bit of a secret. I think that was on purpose. It was no surprise to us. He might be better than every defenceman in this draft, even Gudbranson."

6. As much as other teams liked the pick, though, they were surprised by the Bobby Sanguinetti trade. Just felt it was too early to give up on him.

7. Loved the Dan Ellis pickup by Montreal. Not sure he will sign, because he wants to get a No. 1 shot, but that's the right idea. Would be a perfect complement for Carey Price.

8. In a lot of ways, Martin Biron is also a perfect fit for Montreal. Badly wants to play there. Always smiling and friendly. Will fill reporters' notebooks so other players can relax. If I was Pierre Gauthier, though, I'd be worried fans will be calling for him to start before the first sliced drive at the Canadiens' golf tournament in September.

9. So, how many No. 1 goalie jobs are open to free agents? I count two (Tampa Bay, San Jose) and three possibilities where a newcomer might eventually take it (Atlanta, Montreal, Philadelphia, even with Michael Leighton re-signing). Washington is going to go with Michal Neuvirth/Semyon Varlamov. Is there a surprise out there? A team that takes an inexpensive option? Columbus? Edmonton? Maybe even Detroit? (The Red Wings grabbed Ty Conklin out of nowhere, remember).

10. But, if that's the list, you've got to think Marty Turco turns down Philly for only one team - the Sharks. But, who does Nabokov say no for? I realize this is sugarplum fairy thinking, but he's 34 and has made more than $30 million in his career. Take the $2 million and try to win a Cup.

11. Rick Dudley admits the Thrashers are in win-now mode. If Nabokov is after the cash, is he counting on them and their $30 million in cap space? You learn never to be surprised in this business, but, if he wants to stay in the NHL and make $6 million, I don't see where it's going to be.

12. The Flyers have a history of playing "Back to the Future" in goal. If they go to July 1, will Antero Niittymaki be considered? Maybe even Robert Esche, who they tried to bring back from Russia late in the season? He badly wanted to return. Might even be the backup.

13.  Chris Mason was on Yzerman's radar for Team Canada as the fourth goalie, in case one of the top three got hurt prior to the event.

14. If Sergei Kostitsyn is ever going to get it, it's going to be around an effort-driven, no b-s team like Nashville. If it doesn't work for him there, he's finished. And he'll have no one to blame but himself.

15. Here's why the Marc Savard-to-Toronto rumours don't make a lot of sense to me: If you're Peter Chiarelli, why help the Maple Leafs when you've got their first-round pick next year? Maybe Savard costs you a couple of spots. Meanwhile, if you're Brian Burke, do you really want to help the Bruins?

16. A rebuttal from another GM on the question about Chiarelli: "You have to worry about your team first. If getting him off your roster is that important to you, you do it, even if it helps someone else."

17. It's been reported that Savard must submit a list of five teams he will accept a trade to on July 1. That's not true. He has a full no-trade clause until July 1, 2011 - when it becomes limited. Right now, he's only agreed to go to Toronto and Ottawa.

18. Dany Heatley was ripped for signing a no-trade contract, demanding to leave and then blocking one deal. I get that. No problem. So, why is it ok for Marc Savard to sign a cap-friendly extension with similar protection, only to be asked to waive six months later? That's not right. The Game 7 aftermath, where Savard was fingered as the too-many-men culprit, must be a huge factor in all of this.

19. Here's the word on Keith Ballard from two of his ex-employers. The good: outstanding teammate, no negative agendas, extremely competitive. The concern: Can he play first-pair minutes? "Two years ago, behind Jay Bouwmeester, he had an excellent season," said one. "But, this year, he struggled against the best players in the East every night." Will Vancouver be happy with him as a second-pair guy?

20. When a restricted free agent gets signed this quickly in the off-season, it really says something. By putting Joe Pavelski on the same priority level as Patrick Marleau (and ahead of Evgeni Nabokov), Doug Wilson is telling his young star, "You're very important to us." That, as much as anything else the Sharks could do, will stick with their future captain.

21. The Rangers clearly want to make the same commitment with Marc Staal, but sounds like it's not going to be as easy. Among the toughest negotiations are those with defensive defencemen, although Staal did have eight goals last year.

22. If you're wondering about offer sheets (Staal, Bobby Ryan, maybe James Neal), remember this: teams must have their original draft picks to try this. So, Toronto, with no first-round pick next season, cannot acquire another one and use it as part of an offer sheet.

23. Steve Tambellini has put what's best for the Oilers ahead of his own friendships. When I asked him about Pat Quinn back in April, he agonized about even discussing it. Judging from Quinn's reaction to the switch, it's damaged a once-close relationship. Quinn never saw it coming, but GMs are paid to make painful decisions.

24. Daryl Katz didn't make the pick, but he was very involved in the Oilers' decision-making process. This pick is so crucial to re-invigorating the franchise, and the owner wanted to know what was going on.

25. During the GM meetings at the Stanley Cup, former Red Wings assistant and KHL head coach Barry Smith argued that the NHL should embrace certain things about that league. One of his points was that, instead of burying a player in the minors (and paying him), you send him to Russia, where those owners would pay. I think you'll see a couple of teams try that. Best example: Calgary and Ales Kotalik.

26. Kotalik, by the way, was not put on unconditional waivers, so he cannot be bought out (that may change Wednesday). If he's not in the KHL, do you risk putting him and a potentially bad attitude with your AHL prospects? Some teams will avoid that under any circumstances.

27. GMs cannot afford to be sentimental in a cap world. That's why you can't blame Joe Nieuwendyk for not offering a contract to Mike Modano. Nieuwendyk's got a great spin-doctor, or whoever came up with the idea of comparing Modano to Emmitt Smith.

28. If Modano does decide to play elsewhere, I hope two things happen: he's honest with himself about what his role can be, and the team signing him is honest about it, too. This is a career that should not end badly.

29. The Red Wings admit they are looking for an enforcer, but can anyone see a more mismatched coach/player pairing than Mike Babcock and Derek Boogaard? I know Boogaard trains with Pavel Datsyuk, but still...

30. Paul Holmgren's been ripped for giving up Ryan Parent for the rights to Dan Hamhuis, but I disagree. It's worked three times for the Flyers already (Jeremy Roenick, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell). Maybe there's debate because he gave up a player, not a pick, but how can you fault him for aggressively pursuing one of the best available bodies?

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