HockeyWho's above water, and who's treading water?

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Alex Tanguay, Stephane Veilleux, Matt Walker, Kurtis Foster – all will play important roles.

Armed with his no-trade, Vincent Lecavalier doesn’t have to worry about his future. He’ll outlast anyone involved in the organization’s ownership gong show.

Steven Stamkos continues his improvement.

Rick Tocchet hired a terrific assistant coach in Rick Wilson. A Stanley Cup winner in Dallas, Wilson is going to make this team better.

Why I’m wrong: Mike Smith isn’t completely recovered from his concussion.

The ownership craziness isn’t resolved by 2010. It will take a long time for the fan base – and some players/employees – to have faith in anyone associated with the current group.

Steve Downie actually plays on the first line.

TREADING WATER ...

There are three teams in this section, and all are in the dreaded middle. They aren’t serious contenders, but they aren’t terrible. If you’re a Brian Burke acolyte, you’ve heard him say that this is the worst place to be.

NEW YORK RANGERS

Why I’m right: The Rangers strategy is completely different than that of the best NHL teams. Those teams spend most of their cash on guys they drafted and developed, adding a key free agent at a crucial time. Here, it’s the reverse. They give huge deals to Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Marian Gaborik and Wade Redden. Yes, they took care of Henrik Lundqvist – and wisely so – but they go play hardball with Brandon Dubinsky. Wonder what Marc Staal (restricted after this season) thought about that.

Matt Gilroy can’t make the jump from the NCAA, where he was a 25-year-old against younger players.

John Tortorella self-combusts after 50 games with Gaborik, Sean Avery and Round II of Vaclav Prospal.

Why I’m wrong: Evgeny Grachev, Michael Del Zotto, Artem Anisimov and Bobby Sanguinetti all make an impact in the next few years.

Tortorella lights a fire under the current roster. “He will never get mad at you if you do what he expects,” one of his former players said. “He understands that some guys are stars and some guys aren’t. He tells you to play to what you are. It’s when you start doing things that don’t fit your talents or job description that he goes crazy.”Obviously, that approach worked once before. There are enough attack-minded players to thrive under his system.

Gaborik stays healthy, not a popular bet among Minnesota gamblers.

NEW JERSEY

Why I’m right: No team in the NHL lost more this decade without getting anything in return. Scott Stevens, Scott Niedermayer and Joe Nieuwendyk are going to the Hall of Fame. Bobby Holik, Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta were very valuable players in their system. No one can overcome that, not even the Devils, who – I believe – spend more money on scouting than anyone else. The organization is struggling to find its on-ice identity as a result.

Patrik Elias’ days as an A-level player appear to be over, with four years left on his contract.

It’s sacrilegious, but Martin Brodeur may not be one of the league’s five best goalies. (Although, for one game, I’d probably take him.)

Jacques Lemaire hasn’t been successful since the post-lockout changes.

Why I’m wrong: Brodeur is well aware people are questioning his success after Scott Clemmensen’s career year, and shoves our skepticism where the sun don’t shine.

Like Jim Rutherford in Carolina, Lou Lamoriello’s “Back to the Future” philosophy works. Brodeur and Brian Rolston like playing for Lemaire, who coached the Devils to their first Cup. Lamoriello used to control everything in the organization, including the business side. That’s no longer his responsibility. Maybe it makes a difference.

At least one of their top Swedish prospects – Mattias Tedenby, Jacob Josefson, Nicklas Bergfors – eventually lightens the load on Zach Parise.

BUFFALO

Why I’m right: The Sabres weren’t hit as hard as New Jersey, but simply aren’t the same team since losing Briere and Drury. After letting his two biggest stars walk, owner Tom Golisano promised he would sign Ryan Miller and Jason Pominville. He delivered.

It’s not working.

They may make the playoffs, and no one would want to face Miller, but, as a group, they don’t frighten you. Here’s the concern: The seven highest-paid players (and nine of the top 11) don’t come off the books for at least two years.

There are other GMs who feel for Darcy Regier, saying he’s the victim of an organization cutting costs everywhere it can. For example, the Sabres were one of the best drafting teams in the NHL. Three years ago, Golisano gutted the scouting department, believing you could learn as much about players watching video as opposed to seeing them in person.

It cost them Larry Carriere (now in Washington) and Don Luce (Philadelphia). Both were big losses, especially since they are now helping conference opponents.

Why I’m wrong: Their two best players (Miller and Thomas Vanek) are under contract for five more years.
Lindy Ruff sounds pretty excited about this team, and he knows a little more than I do. The Sabres are fast, and only going to get quicker if Nathan Gerbe and Tim Kennedy make an impact.

Opponents raved about Tyler Myers, a big (pardon the pun) part of the future – even if that future is not now.
Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman, once the league most underrated shutdown pair, are both free agents after this year. Almost $5.5 million would come off the cap, giving Regier a little flexibility.

The Sabres skill players discover some edge.

SUDDENLY THERE’S HOPE ...

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Why I’m right: Guess.

John Tavares instantly gives Islanders fans a reason to be excited. From the blueline in, he’s going to be very dangerous. I love the way the organization is shielding him. They’re not putting his face all over Long Island with the words “SAVIOUR” across his forehead in giant type.

And, it’s not only that they are surrounding him with veterans, but younger players who recently survived Year One. Josh Bailey and Kyle Okposo, for example. Garth Snow thinks their experiences are as critical as Doug Weight's.

The returnees feel the Islanders weren’t competitive without Rick DiPietro last year. That won’t be a problem with Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron. As for DiPietro return, you’ve got a better chance of finding out Megan Fox’s phone number.

Why I’m wrong: By the time the Islanders are really ready to make noise, how many of the current players will be around? There are some top-six forwards, for sure. But the defence and goaltending are thin across the organization. That’s a must-build.

Where will this franchise be by then? Charles Wang received a rough ride during his most recent pitch for a new arena, with media reports suggesting he was unprepared. There will come a time this team needs to recruit a key free agent, a final piece of the puzzle. Not sure it can be done there.

Then again, is Kansas City going to be a hot destination?

IN TROUBLE ...

ATLANTA

Why I’m right: The success of this season depends on one thing, and one thing only – determining Ilya Kovalchuk’s future. The Thrashers have two choices. They can either sign him, or make a great trade. There is no other option. Trading him might be difficult, because some of the Russian players are convinced that if he’s not playing in Atlanta next season, he’s going home. The KHL may offer him Moscow in an attempt at legitimacy.

It’s a tough one for Don Waddell. He’s publicly optimistic. But he has to be.

I’m not sure Nik Antropov can keep up with Kovalchuk. An online fan vote picked Rich Peverley to play with number 17. He was a good waiver pickup, but, really, the number one centre?

Goaltending is a mess, with Kari Lehtonen injured and no one else emphatically taking the job. Maybe the four contenders can play at the same time.

Why I’m wrong: If Waddell decided to trade Kovalchuk, he could add a few really good pieces to a roster with legit young talent. Tobias Enstrom and Bryan Little are already impact players. Zach Bogosian and Evander Kane are going to be.

The defence could be pretty good. Pavel Kubina got a raw deal in Toronto.

Rick Dudley was a great hire.

FLORIDA

Why I’m right: The Phoenix fiasco took all the headlines, but Florida’s ownership mess is just as bad. By all accounts, owner Alan Cohen doesn’t want anything to do with this anymore, and one potential transaction has already been vetoed.

That group was reportedly going to hire Neil Smith as GM. Meanwhile, Bill Torrey interviewed Doug Risebrough for that job in front of media covering the draft. Randy Sexton is probably going to keep the position until someone buys them.

As a result, there’s some organizational paralysis. The Panthers could have been a bidder for Phil Kessel – they have young assets to trade – but a big financial commitment was not feasible.

They missed the playoffs and lost Jay Bouwmeester for nothing.

Peter DeBoer and Tomas Vokoun aren’t “exchanging Christmas cards,” as the coach said earlier this month.

Why I’m wrong: If Vokoun does his usual early season sputter, Scott Clemmensen can save October.
David Booth, one of the franchise’s cornerstone players, decided to stay, which lessened the pain of Bouwmeester’s defection a bit.

Michael Frolik has a chance to be something special. This franchise does draft pretty well. But, it’s difficult to be optimistic about the Panthers until new ownership is found. The last thing the league needs is another team in trouble. And, word is, this could be pretty bad.

Home: NHLPA unrest | Page 2: Pens, Caps are class | Page 3: Canadian wild cards | Page 4: Treading water

TOMORROW: The West.

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