HockeyPens, Caps are class of the East, but watch out for ...

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They are surrounded by players happy to accept their roles. Ray Shero adds any missing pieces at the deadline.
And, Marc-Andre Fleury badly wants to make the Olympic Team. Do not underestimate how much of an impact that had on his playoff performance.

Why I’m wrong: The obvious first reason would be a Stanley Cup hangover. The Penguins may be young, but they’re not immature. Unless some players didn’t fully recover from injury, I can’t imagine this being a huge factor.

However, losing Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi hurts, bigtime. This was their shutdown pair, two hardworking defencemen who fit the system perfectly. They were also huge parts of the team off the ice – Gill for keeping the room loose, Scuderi for what I’m told is a ridiculously high pain threshold. Who replaces them?

Jay McKee is a nice fit if he can stay healthy, but it’s time for Kris Letang to make a major step forward. His development will be a crucial part of any repeat attempt.

Of course, if Crosby’s groin injury is worse than they’re letting on, that’s the biggest problem of all.

THE NUMBER ONE CONTENDER ...

WASHINGTON

Why I’m right: There is no one else who can score the kinds of goals Alexander Ovechkin does. The Capitals are a structurally difficult opponent, with Bruce Boudreau allowing his offensive lines to play one way and his checking lines a completely different style. “I’ve never seen a team do that before,” one coach said after playing them last year.

Mike Knuble is a perfect addition, a team-first guy who will go to the tough areas to score. Plus, he’s a conditioning maniac on a team where some players could be more committed to fitness. (Then again, so could broadcasters.)
A lot of good, young players added the experience of two tough seven-game series. No one will benefit more than Semyon Varlamov, emotionally spent by the time he was lit up by Pittsburgh in Game 7.

And, with all their flair, Washington has one of the East’s best checking lines: Matt Bradley/Dave Steckel/Brooks Laich.

Why I’m wrong: Chris Pronger would have been a perfect fit for this team, and I completely understand why George McPhee took a run at him. Washington has several good, solid defenceman, but no one who can change a game at both ends of the ice like he does. The other major Eastern contenders all have at least one guy like that.

The Capitals biggest problem last year was discipline. If more of them were committed to playing two ways, or taking fewer dumb penalties (cough, Alexander Semin, cough) or in better shape, they could have beaten Pittsburgh. Undisciplined teams don’t win championships.

Of course, there’s the goaltending. No doubt, Varlamov has a higher ceiling than Jose Theodore. However, a goalie on this team can’t be just good. The way the Capitals play, you have to be great because their key players are high-risk, high-reward. Is Varlamov ready to be great?

THE OTHER POWERS ...

BOSTON

Why I’m right: Physically punishing, disciplined team with a high level of commitment. Loaded with hard-working players on and off the ice (led by fitness freak Zdeno Chara), the Bruins rarely take a night off. Consistency is such a hard thing to find in the NHL.

(My favourite Chara fitness story: He loves cycling. While in Ottawa, Daniel Alfredsson asked to go for a ride with him. Next day, Bryan Murray – then the coach – asks Chara how it went. Said Chara, "He’s a wuss. He gave up after four hours.")

Tim Thomas won’t be satisfied with his Vezina Trophy and huge new contract. “There will always be someone who thinks you’ll fail,” he said.

And, Marc Savard’s shoulder carries a bigger chip than ever. Not invited to the Olympic camp. An unrestricted free agent after this season. This creative passer is going to have a huge year.

With all of his extra draft picks, Peter Chiarelli is in prime trading position.

Why I’m wrong: As aggravating as Phil Kessel could be, the fact is his 36 goals were not replaced. No one left behind has his combination of speed and skill. The Bruins need younger (Lucic, Wheeler, Krejci, Bergeron) and slightly older (Ryder, Sturm) players to reach that total. It would be nice if Sturm could stay healthy for a season.
Truth is, this is a huge year for Bergeron. He just turned 24, but with Savard a potential goner, the organization needs to know if he can be a number one centre. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be.

And, they have to find a way to get Chara more rest in the regular season. The last two years, he’s looked either injured or exhausted by the second round of the playoffs.

PHILADELPHIA

Why I’m right: Pronger, although by the time I write about Anaheim, I’m going to be sick of hearing his name, too. He makes every team he plays for significantly better. Matt Carle instantly improves, and gives the Flyers two real good defensive pairs. (Kimmo Timomen/Braydon Coburn won’t be much of a relief for opposing attackers.)

John Stevens adopted a strategy Ken Hitchcock used to win a Stanley Cup in Dallas: keeping duos together instead of worrying about linking three men on a line. For example, Mike Modano always played with Jere Lehtinen. For now, it’s Mike Richards/Simon Gagne, Jeff Carter/Scott Hartnell, Daniel Briere/Claude Giroux. Giroux is going to be an impact player and Mike Babcock compared Richards to Henrik Zetterberg. It’s time for Briere to step up, though.
The Flyers have everything: skill, edge, toughness, youth, experience. Well, almost everything.

Why I’m wrong: How many more Stanley Cup banners would hang in Philly if the Flyers had better goaltending? People who support Emery say he's a changed man. We'll see. Unlike Varlamov in Washington, Emery doesn’t have to be great. He has to be Chris Osgood, because the Flyers are very good defensively. If he falters, can Brian Boucher be more than a short-term fix?

The interesting thing about signing Emery is that Paul Holmgren asked his players to be less visible off-ice. Eight of them lived right downtown, and there were opportunities for debauchery. They didn’t party on the same level as the Montreal Canadiens, but a few pictures ended up on the internet (don’t crash Google, it’s nothing exciting).

Oh, and I’m also wrong if Daniel Carcillo fights someone with the Flyers leading 3-0 in Game 6 of a series.

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