Why I’m right: Cory Clouston is Coach of the Year. It’s funny, but when I called around after his hiring, there were plenty of people who didn’t like him. He’s worked hard to improve his sociability level, but is still intense and driven. His family stays in B.C. during the season, so it’s 100 per cent hockey for him. Clouston preaches structure and the Senators really bought into his message. They’ve finally found the right guy behind the bench.
The Senators have, according to those who’ve played there and left, a weird dressing room vibe. They’d better hope trading Dany Heatley eliminates that problem.
Nick Foligno grows into a legit scoring threat. Alexei Kovalev gives the Senators 65 games instead of 40. And Pascal Leclaire finally ends Ottawa’s Great Goalie Search.
Why I’m wrong: Chris Campoli doesn’t improve puck movement from the blue-line. This was the biggest reason why Ottawa was Flop City early in the season. Clouston’s system improved things, but Campoli must help Filip Kuba. The Islanders quietly questioned his character when Campoli was traded. He’ll get plenty of opportunity to prove them wrong.
Jonathan Cheechoo and Milan Michalek fail to re-discover their consistent scoring touch and the Senators are once again a one-line team.
So many people who know sports better than I do always warn about teams who go on winning streaks when their season is over. It’s very hard to judge how good they really are. But I’ll take my chances with Ottawa.
HARD TO SEE THEM IMPROVING ...
CAROLINA
Why I’m right: Because improvement this year means getting to the Stanley Cup Final, and contenders around them made significant moves. The Hurricanes did not have such financial flexibility.
Rod Brind’Amour and Erik Cole are willing, but unable. Others are unreliable in key spots: Jussi Jokinen, Sergei Samsonov and Joni Pitkanen. Carolina has only two elite players.
Because any time they have playoff success, it’s always followed by disaster.
Why I’m wrong: Jim Rutherford does a really smart thing with this organization. If he’s going to go down in flames, it’s with guys he knows. He fires Peter Laviolette and brings back Paul Maurice. Maurice gets them to the East Final. He also re-acquires Cole and Matt Cullen. Struggling elsewhere, they energize the dressing room and re-ignite their careers. This year, he’s doing it again with Aaron Ward. All three of them won Stanley Cups in Carolina.
Rutherford’s not the dumb poker player waiting for an inside straight on the river.
Tom Kostopoulos and Stephane Yelle are the greasy guys this team needed.
And those two elite players? Two of the best.
I HONESTLY HAVE NO CLUE ...
MONTREAL
Why I’m right: On the first day of Grade 10 chemistry, I set fire to a sink because I had no idea what I was mixing. Same thing could happen here.
There are so many questions. This notebook would be longer than a Tolstoy novel if I asked them all. So let’s go with the most pertinent ones:
How serious is Carey Price? It’s OK to have a sense of humour, and Price is very funny. He has a chance to be great, but he must be much more focused. He can’t be worried about the crowd reaction. He can’t be worried about extraneous stuff. If he doesn’t deliver to his potential this year, what do you do if you’re Bob Gainey? Price will be a restricted free agent.
Will this team grow up? On-ice, they meekly folded in the playoffs. Off it, too many players took too much advantage of the nightlife. And, will the new arrivals be able to handle to intensity of Montreal?
Is this the right mix? Better hope so, because your top three forwards are signed for five years, eating more than $18 million between them.
Why I’m wrong: Jacques Martin may not be very exciting when it comes to sound bites or coaching style (no matter what he says), but he will do for Montreal what he did for Ottawa. Now, the Canadiens are not as bad as the Senators when Martin arrived, but things are definitely worse than anyone predicted.
Gainey was aggravated by his team’s inability to check last year, and, under Martin, it will certainly do that. Martin sent a great message by demoting Sergei Kostitsyn to Hamilton on Sunday night, a couple of days after snapping at the winger for butchering a drill in practice. Since joining the London Knights as a junior, Kostitsyn’s rep isn’t pretty: tremendous talent, terrible work ethic, not very accountable. Maybe this will jolt him, and everyone else.
Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Hal Gill and Travis Moen own five Cup rings between them. (Gomez has two.) If you’re going to change your culture, do it with winners.
ON THE RISE ...
TORONTO
Why I’m right: For the first time in a long time, the Maple Leafs aren’t stale. Last year, fans were bored. The team played hard, but the city yawned. No one cared that they missed the playoffs and, every week, scalpers complained about the lack of interest.
When was the last time Toronto had a group of young players to be excited about? Stalberg, Bozak and Kadri join Luke Schenn as a legit base for the future. (And, it was absolutely the right move to send Kadri to London.) That creates legit competition for jobs.
Despite the uncertainty of the Kessel trade, a lot of GMs liked it for Toronto.
Last year, the returning players didn’t like Ron Wilson, and the feeling was mutual. There is now a degree of understanding. He will still push, but they feel he has a more open mind about them.
At the very least, franchise founder Conn Smythe would love them. These guys can definitely beat you in the alley. As for the ice, well, I’m not convinced they make the playoffs this year. But, they’re going in the right direction.
Why I’m wrong: If Red Wing prospect Johan Ryno roofs the puck on a third-period 2-on-0, Jonas Gustavsson doesn’t get a standing ovation on Saturday night. Instead, Ryno shot it into Gustavsson’s pads and a goaltending controversy was born.
Vesa Toskala threw gasoline on the fire by giving up seven to Buffalo last night, one more reason for Swedes and Finns to fight. This league is all about goaltending. Toskala lacks confidence, and the rookie has exactly three periods of preseason experience. He is far from a sure thing. (For the record, Wilson said Toskala will start the opener.)
Kessel and Wilson collide just like Kessel and Claude Julien, and it costs him in the eyes of teammates.
The Maple Leafs find out it’s harder to win when opposing teams take you seriously.
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