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Western Conference predictions...Page 3

September 30, 2009 12:14 AM | Posted by   Elliotte Friedman  

Each week, Hockey Night in Canada's Elliotte Friedman brings you his take on the world of sports. Click, peruse, debate, comment.

NO MORE EASY NIGHTS...

ST. LOUIS

Why I'm right: It's easy to go from outhouse to (nearer) the penthouse, which is what both St. Louis and Columbus did last season. What's harder is finding the consistency to stay there, especially in a tough division. Will all of the players who took strides stay at that level?

What's unusual about the Blues rise is that it occurred despite serious injuries to important people. Paul Kariya played 15 games, Eric Brewer 28 and Andy McDonald 46. Erik Johnson never played at all. Brewer will be late to start the season, but will plugging all of them back into the lineup ruin the chemistry?

Johnson's injury prevents him from fulfilling his enormous potential.

Why I'm wrong: I don't put a ton of faith on the preseason, but, by all accounts, this team looked really good. They've got two legit scoring lines, especially if Kariya can stay healthy. Versatility is critical in the cap world and both Keith Tkachuk and David Backes are productive whether in the middle or on the wing.

Roman Polak becomes even more of a defensive-zone beast.

Ty Conklin is a perfect fit. Chris Mason couldn't hold onto the No. 1 job in Nashville. If that happens again, they have a great insurance policy.

COLUMBUS

Why I'm right: Top centre Derick Brassard has exactly 48 games of NHL experience. The organization is all-in on him, giving him a four-year, $12.8-million US extension during the summer.

The Blue Jackets feel they must overpay to attract free-agent talent (Mike Commodore, Samuel Pahlsson and Antoine Vermette’s extension). Since they do not have the budget to be a cap team, they can't be wrong about any of these signings. Commodore was a good omen last season.

Has Steve Mason set himself an impossible standard to follow? (Funny stat: Backup Mathieu Garon makes more than he does. Mason was such a low pick that he doesn't have an entry-level bonus package.)

Why I'm wrong: Scott Howson already has his biggest victory of the season, getting Rick Nash's name on a long-term deal. With The Franchise in place through the Obama presidency, there is reason to believe anything can be accomplished.

The Blue Jackets are a deeper team than they’ve ever been. If Nash or Mason gets hurt, that's trouble - as it would be for any team. But they can now handle secondary injuries, which hadn't been the case.

Nikita Filatov actually does earn Ken Hitchcock's trust.

ON THE RISE...

MINNESOTA

Why I'm right: The Wild needed a philosophical facelift. They'd become a bit stale on and off the ice. Not only did their players complain about the style, so did opponents. "It was boring to play against them," one said.

Chuck Fletcher got a head coach who interested several other teams because Todd Richards is a highly respected hockey mind.

Brent Burns recovers from a disappointing season to make the Canadian Olympic team.

Why I'm wrong: The Wild traded one supremely talented but frustrating and injury-prone player (Marian Gaborik) for another (Martin Havlat).

Jacques Lemaire played that style because he knew this team couldn't win with a different one.

Pierre Marc-Bouchard's concussion symptoms don't go away, and Richards can't find a No. 2 centre.

HARD TO SEE THEM IMPROVING...

NASHVILLE

Why I'm right: The Predators had trouble scoring goals last year – 24th in the NHL – and really didn't fix things. They took a run at Phil Kessel but weren't willing to pay Toronto money, so he wasn't interested. (My guess is their bid topped out at $4.8M-ish/year.)

David Poile was hoping a few of his young players would force him to make difficult decisions, but Colin Wilson couldn't stay healthy and the GM felt it necessary to bring in Francis Bouillon for the blue-line.

Steve Sullivan's comeback attempt fails, which would be disappointing because he's worked so hard to get back.

Why I'm wrong: Never, ever underestimate David Poile and Barry Trotz. These guys do unbelievable work with zero margin for error. There is not a GM/head coach combination doing a better job than these two.

Poile has some room in the budget to spend and plenty of prospects to trade, if that's what he wishes to do. He is extremely conservative.

Shea Weber wins the Norris Trophy. It would be the first of two or three for him.

IN TROUBLE...

COLORADO

Why I'm right: This is the only five-star lock I've got. The Avalanche adopted the Russians' World War II strategy – a scorched-earth policy. The highlight of the season is going to be Joe Sakic's jersey retirement on opening night.

If I was a fan, the biggest problem I'd see moving forward is that the organization is not considered strong in goal. Craig Anderson did have a good run in Florida last season, but he's never been a No. 1. None of their best prospects in net are, either. When you're trying to rebuild, you must have goaltending. It's the most important position in the league and nothing is more crushing for a team of young players than consistently losing because the netminding is bad.

Why I'm wrong: Long-term, there are some good prospects. Matt Duchene, of course, leads the way and Kevin Shattenkirk is not far behind. Paul Stastny is a star and Kyle Quincey learned from the best in Detroit. (Defence is actually considered the franchise's best future position.)

If they want, the Avalanche can clear approximately $20 million from their payroll after this season. The Philadelphia Flyers are a perfect indication of how quickly you can recover from an awful season through free agency.

Just in time for Patrick Roy's arrival.

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