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The Kessel gamble

September 19, 2009 01:04 AM | Posted by   Elliotte Friedman  

Two moments that stand out, now that Brian Burke has traded for Phil Kessel:

The week that the Maple Leafs were eliminated from the playoffs last season, Jim Hughson, Craig Simpson and I were watching a game-day skate. Burke walked by and said, “Can’t believe we’re out of the playoffs.” I looked at him and said, “Honestly, you can’t be surprised"

That set him off. Burke was furious that such failures were expected, even accepted. He stormed away angry about that.

A couple of weeks ago, I attended an event where Burke spoke. Beforehand, we were chatting when a fan walked up and asked for an autograph. As Burke was signing, the fan – probably about 20 years old – said, “Take your time. I’m ready to wait for this team to be built into a winner."

Burke’s reply: “I’m not that patient.”

Now we have proof. After his Anaheim Ducks came seven victories shy of the Stanley Cup, he gave up two first round picks for Chris Pronger. It was the final cornerstone of a championship team. Now, with a group that isn’t anywhere close to winning it all, he gave up two more first-rounders (and a second) for Kessel.

The only sure winner is Kessel’s agent, Wade Arnott. In his highest-profile case to date, Arnott gets a contract that has players and executives around the league gasping in astonishment.

But, it’s a huge risk for everyone else, including...

Burke

It’s seemingly crazy for an organization lacking in talent to deal such high picks. Burke is gambling that Tyler Bozak, Christian Hanson, Nazem Kadri and Viktor Stalberg will make enough of an impact to make people forget. All four have enormous potential (ask Matt Hunwick about Bozak). And, I’m convinced one of the reasons this deal took so long to make is Burke refused to include Kadri.

Burke must also hope the Leafs will be good enough to prevent the first-rounders from being high lottery picks. He’s going to need big seasons from Vesa Toskala and Jonas Gustavsson.He’s going to need big seasons from Vesa Toskala and Jonas Gustavsson.

Kessel

The Bruins, understanding his strengths and weaknesses, protected him. He instantly becomes the most skilled player on the roster, but the highest-paid one too. In Toronto, that comes with a target.

I’m not convinced that the enormously shy Kessel will be comfortable in the spotlight. A white-hot hockey market is not the best fit for him.

Will he discover the work ethic necessary to become a truly great player? And, can the Leafs find a centre who was as good for him as Marc Savard? (Come to think of it, do the Leafs try and re-unite the two if Savard becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. There's a rumour to start.)

Peter Chiarelli, now

The defending Eastern Conference regular season champions just lost 36 goals from the roster, with no one added to replace him. The returning Marco Sturm could take a run at that goal total, but it’s tough to depend on a guy who’s always injured. I have no doubt that the Bruins would still love to have Kessel, but a salary cap world forces these kinds of decisions.

Peter Chiarelli, in the future

First, Kessel could torment him six times a year, never mind the playoffs. But, even more importantly, he’s got to use the picks well. He knows he’ll hear about this deal for years to come, so he has to get it right. Only then will the Bruins fans who hate it – and there are plenty – stop complaining.

David Poile

The Nashville GM really wanted to make this work. The Predators need offence to avoid missing the playoffs once again, in what has suddenly changed from one of the worst divisions to one of the best. Chiarelli wanted to do it but Kessel had the hammer. And, in the end, the Predators wouldn’t have matched Toronto’s offer, which is why Poile lost out.

Every trade is a risk, yes. But this one will determine a lot of legacies.

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