CBC-Sports

Leafs, for now, are big winners in Kessel deal

September 19, 2009 12:04 PM | Posted by   Scott Morrison  

At first blush, the price the Toronto Maple Leafs paid to acquire forward Phil Kessel – two first-round draft picks and a second-round pick – would seem excessive.

And it is steep, make no mistake.

But think of it this way: barring an unexpected decline in Kessel's play, the Maple Leafs know what they have got in the trade. The Boston Bruins only know what they have lost, which is a 21-year-old who scored 36 goals last season.

Yes, the Bruins are armed with high draft picks they can either turn into a player through a trade, or turn into players through the draft, but you can't attach a name or a face at this point so it is impossible to know what the return is for Boston.

So the deal, from the Bruins' perspective, is all about the future, with the loss of Kessel all about the here and now. They have to be able to replace those 36 goals and the potential for more.

The Leafs, meantime, are under the gun this way. Kessel, when he actually arrives in mid-November, has to produce big-time. That is obvious. And general manager Brian Burke, who just added a small army to his scouting staff, has to use some of his excess on defence to replenish his supply of draft picks before next June.

And he doesn't necessarily have to acquire a first-round pick along the way. Reason being, he just did by getting Kessel. The Leafs acquired a sure first-rounder in Kessel, and they dealt a "what-if" first-rounder to the Bruins.

Burke making a gamble

It's that extra first-round pick that makes the deal feel excessive, but Burke is gambling he has acquired enough young talent through free-agent signings that his cupboard isn't bare and he can afford what he gave up. Especially since he didn't have to part with any young bodies, including his first pick this past June, Nazem Kadri.

For the moment, the Leafs are the big winners in this deal. They acquired a good, young talent and found a top-three forward with a big future.

The Bruins made a good deal knowing they couldn't bring Kessel back, but the loss is one they will undoubtedly feel unless they can swing those picks into another useful acquisition.

Who knows? Down the road perhaps one of those picks becomes a prominent player, the way the pick the Leafs gave up in 1989 to New Jersey for defenceman Tom Kurvers turned into Scott Niedermayer.

Or maybe not. As much as everyone in Leafs Nation gets mushy about first picks and building through the draft, it is not a perfect science and it's a long, painful process.

Burke accelerated that process at a cost and now must hope that his goal of reaching the playoffs is realized – because the higher the Leafs finish in the standings, the less value those first-round picks have.

And if Kessel plays the way he did last season, or even better, no one in Toronto will remember those picks.

Unless, of course, the Bruins find a superstar in the draft. But that's an issue for another day.

It was a steep price, no doubt, but with a handsome reward for now and the future. And it's the future that will determine what exactly the Bruins got in the deal.

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