CBC-Sports

Draft picks for star player doesn't always pan out

September 14, 2009 11:31 AM | Posted by   Elliotte Friedman  

It was the suggestion of Hockey Night in Canada producer Doug Walton that I do a Peter King-style notebook every week, so with apologies to Mr. King (hope he remembers that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery), here is my first attempt/ripoff.

If you guys like it, I’ll keep it up. (It's three parts, so please click through).

After hearing that Toronto’s offer for Phil Kessel reportedly includes two first-round picks, I wondered how often a team had traded such significant bounty. Admittedly, this research is unscientific, since it required looking through transactions on my own, and I may have missed something. But here’s what I found over the last 20 years:

  • It’s happened twice with Chris Pronger. The Ducks gave up two first-rounders to get him from Edmonton (the second guaranteed when Anaheim reached the Final in 2007), while the Flyers included two as part of the package to get him last June.

  • Philly’s made a habit of this. The Flyers also did it to get Eric Lindros and Ken Wregget (!)

  • The Avalanche traded two to get Rob Blake, the second of them conditional upon him re-signing in Colorado.

  • The Kings dealt three to get Wayne Gretzky.

  • The Whalers also dealt three to get Glen Wesley, which is somewhat similar to the Kessel situation because they were considering signing him to an offer sheet.

  • Twice, it’s been done to balance offer sheets. In 1997, the Flyers traded Mikael Renberg and Karl Dykhuis to Tampa, getting back four first-rounders they lost in signing Chris Gratton. It was an awful move for the Lightning, allowing the Flyers to draft Simon Gagne and Justin Williams.

  • Two years earlier, St. Louis dealt Curtis Joseph and Mike Grier to Edmonton, recovering a pair of picks lost to the Oilers as compensation for grabbing Shayne Corson.

Unless Brian Burke can somehow recover the picks he’s poised to trade, the last two scenarios are not relevant to this one. And, it’s ridiculous to include Gretzky as part of this conversation. There was zero chance the Oilers were going to get anything approaching equal value.

So, were these trades worth it?

The Ducks and Avalanche would absolutely say yes, since both players were critical pieces of a Stanley Cup champion. The Flyers would still do the Pronger deal – no doubt – but were very lucky the Maple Leafs (Rob Pearson/Steve Bancroft) did not take advantage of the Wregget gift.

Remember this, however: That Avalanche team had already won one Stanley Cup and consistently challenged for more. The Ducks went to the Western Conference Final weeks before getting Pronger. When Wregget arrived, the Flyers were en route to the Eastern Conference Final for the third time in five years. (Twice, they lost to Edmonton in the Stanley Cup Final.)

It’s too early to judge the recent Pronger deal, but Philly is a legitimate contender with a lot of young talent. The Maple Leafs can’t say the same.

That leaves Wesley and Lindros.

When the Whalers got Wesley, they weren’t very good. They’d missed the playoffs two years in a row. Before that, they’d suffered six straight first-round defeats. A very solid player, Wesley wasn’t a difference-maker. After he arrived, it took Hartford/Carolina five years to sniff the post-season and seven to win a round.

Still, the Bruins didn’t exactly wow the hockey world with their selections, drafting Kyle McLaren, Jonathan Aitken and Sergei Samsonov. Considering Wesley’s service in Hartford/Carolina – 13 years and a Stanley Cup – you could make a real argument they won this deal, a stunner considering they handed Boston three top-10 picks.

While entire forests have been razed debating The Lindros Era, it should be pointed out that the Avalanche used one of the picks – Jocelyn Thibault – to get Patrick Roy. We all know this Quebec trade won Colorado a Stanley Cup, but you can draw some parallel between the Flyers in 1992 and the Leafs in 2009.

Philly hadn’t made the playoffs in three years, and was trying to get a new building. Toronto doesn’t have the second problem, but the playoffs are watch-only for them now. Kessel has a skill set no other Maple Leaf can claim, but can you really say he’s a franchise player on Lindros’s level? Then again, Burke wouldn’t be giving up a Peter Forsberg in the deal, either.

It’s such a risk, with the possibility of giving up high picks and praying the team you give them to is clueless on draft day. It certainly makes sense if you’re close to the Cup, and think Kessel is the final piece. But you can also win a Stanley Cup – for someone else.

Next: Eastern Conference musings

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