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Breaking down the Marion-O'Neal trade

February 13, 2009 03:16 PM | Posted by   Paul Jay  

Fresh off the news that the Toronto Raptors have agreed to send Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon and a conditional draft pick to the Miami Heat in exchange for Shawn Marion, Marcus Banks and cash, the question must now be asked: is this a good thing for the Raptors?

Three weeks ago I expressed some doubts.

On the plus side, the deal helps to address the team's shortcomings at small forward, and on paper a frontline of Marion, Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani with Joey Graham and - if he gets healthy - Kris Humphries coming off the bench sounds competitive.

It also keeps Bargnani in the starting lineup, where he has performed better, though he remains something of an enigma on offence: a clearly talented player who appears to have learned how to play basketball from reading a book or two, and not through any natural instincts. (Step 1: Pump fake. Step 2: Drive to hoop. Step 3: Get called for charging).

Playoffs looking like a stretch

But that quickly-diminishing smudge in the Raptors rear-view mirror is their chances of making the playoffs this year, and even a weak field ahead of them can't hide the reality that there is a field of six teams in a better position to nab the final playoff spot. So maybe expecting Marion to make a difference this year is asking too much.

More importantly, we are often told, the move clears over $18 million from the team's payroll next year, money that will help put the team under the salary cap and allow them to either lure free agents or acquire players in trades.

The downside, as I pointed out then, is that the deal includes the contract of Marcus Banks, which runs through to the end of 2011, paying him about $9 million for the next two years after this year. Paying Banks that extra cash might hurt the flexibility of the Raptors in 2010, when several big-name free agents, including Bosh and Bargnani, will be on the market.

This might be palatable if Banks were capable of playing meaningful minutes, but so far in his career, he has not. He is a game defender at the point guard position, a valuable commodity, but has yet to prove he can play the position on offence. (Making him the opposite of Jose Calderon, in both quality and style).

Also troubling is the news that a conditional first-round draft pick is included in the deal. The Sun Sentinel reports it's a 2010 pick lottery protected through 2014, with the possibility of having to throw in an extra second round pick if the Raptors don't make the playoffs in 2010.

For those keeping score, this deal, combined with the deal that brought O'Neal to Toronto, essentially means the Raptors traded TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Jamario Moon, Maceo Baston and two first-round picks for Shawn Marion, Marcus Banks and Nathan Jawai. Take away all the salaries that expire this year and you're left with a trade of Ford and two picks for Banks, Jawai and maybe an extra few million to spend. That's tough to swallow.

Is Colangelo finished?

The other question that needs to be asked is whether Toronto Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo is finished, or whether players like Joey Graham, Jason Kapono or Anthony Parker are on the block as well.

Assuming for the moment that they are not, it appears Colangelo's move is designed to let the Raptors have their cake and eat it too.

On the one hand, Colangelo could legitimately claim that he traded for Marion to help the team make a playoff push, a goal that would likely meet with the approval of Bosh, Jose Calderon, who presumably still care to make the playoffs.

And at the same time, the move is designed with the future in mind, giving the Raptors a chance to fill the small forward or shooting guard position next summer with a more long-term replacement like Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu, Atlanta's Marvin Williams, Chicago's Ben Gordon or Josh Childress, currently playing in Greece alongside Raptors draft pick Giorgos Printezis.

Or, if those players prove too expensive, swinging a deal for players under contract to teams looking to shed salaries.

A step sideways

But naturally, having your cake and eating it too comes at a price, and that price is in the loss of future assets: the loss of a pick and the loss of cap flexibility during 2010.

Perhaps it will all work out for the Raptors: maybe when dealing this summer, the team can squeeze a few draft picks out of teams as the price to help them dump players the Raptors their way, thus cancelling the loss of the 2010 pick.

But for now the deal looks to be another step sideways: a move they had to make, but one which paradoxically leaves them in basically the same spot they were before.

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