CBC-Sports

Who could be next on Detroit's "lock up" list? Try Lidstrom

January 29, 2009 10:47 AM | Posted by   Elliotte Friedman  

Considering my recent history with Red Wing fans, allow me to begin this blog with the following disclaimer: I have not spoken to anyone in the Detroit organization about this. It is purely guesswork on my part.

Now, let’s go to the thesis: Ken Holland’s next big negotiation will not be Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, Jiri Hudler or Mikael Samuelsson.

It will be Nicklas Lidstrom.

(This, of course, is assuming Holland already doesn’t know Lidstrom’s future plans.)

Henrik Zetterberg’s signing means that 15 players off the team’s current roster are signed for next year at a combined $47 million. Depending on where the cap goes, Holland could have anywhere from $6-$9 million to play with.

But let’s look even further. For the 2010-11 season, there are nine current commitments totalling $33.35 million. Those nine players are: Daniel Cleary, Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Draper, Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall, Chris Osgood, Brian Rafalski, Brad Stuart and Zetterberg.

'Not too shabby'

As Adam Sandler sings in the Chanukah Song, “Not too shabby,” especially considering Detroit has several real good prospects ready to play in the NHL at affordable rates.

So, who has to be dealt with? This summer’s four, of course. (What if Ty Conklin wants to stay, too?) Then, there’s Tomas Holmstrom. And Lidstrom.

Technically, the CBA would not allow any dealings with him until July 1. (Lidstrom is on a two-year contract, and extensions on multi-year deals can only be done in the final season.)

But, they could go for a coffee and spitball a little. Number 5, the future first-ballot Hall of Famer, is the key to all of this, since - depending on what happens with Hossa - he has the largest cap figure. He will turn 40 during the 2010 playoffs, and the first question is, “Will he continue to play?” If the answer is no, Holland has an extra $7.45 million. But, if the answer is yes - and, right now, there’s no reason to believe Detroit wouldn’t want him back - what will Lidstrom’s salary be?

The going bargain rate?

He made $20 million in the two seasons before the lockout, but, since then, has been underpaid by NHL standards. Like the rest of the core Wings, he’s taken below market value to stay there. As good as he is, can he really expect to make the same money at 40? Maybe you drop him in line with Rafalski at $6 million. That way he’s still your highest-paid defenceman, or at least tied. Maybe he takes less.

Certainly Holland will want to do right by Lidstrom, one of the greatest players in franchise history, one of the greatest defencemen in NHL history. And Lidstrom has never done anything but the best for the organization. It’s hard to see this being a problem.

But, it is very important, because, giving Holland an idea of what he’d play for gives the GM the best chance of knowing how much flexibility he really has. I’m not sure he can convince Hossa to take another one-year deal, but can he do it with, say, Franzen? Or Hudler?

It’s hard to predict what Hossa will do, because God doesn’t even know what’s going to happen in the playoffs. But, let’s assume that he wants to stay. He’s going to have to do what everyone else does, take less than Edmonton is willing to throw at him. Does Datsyuk’s $6.7 million become the new ceiling, or does Hossa get it? Regardless, we’re probably looking at a $7 million max.

For the purposes of our little game, he takes it. That prevents Holland for going huge on Franzen or Hudler this summer. But, what if the GM tells whichever of those two is his next priority, “Look what Hossa did. He took a one-year deal and then cashed in big.”

If he knows what Lidstrom is willing to play for, he can go to that player and quietly say, “We’ve got some extra room coming available next summer. We’ll take care of you just like we did with him.” (I know that’s technically illegal, but, please.)

Considering the Red Wings’ players’ contract histories, anyone want to bet against someone agreeing to that? Me neither.

Like I said, it’s a theory. And I wrote it at 2 a.m. after a white-knuckle snowstorm drive from Kingston to Toronto. But looking at the team’s future salary situation, it probably gives Detroit the best chance at keeping its best players together.

" Previous Post | Main
  •