Back in March, not even the most astute baseball talent evaluator could've predicted that Aaron Loup, owner of a 4.66 earned-run average at Class-A in 2011, would be the Toronto Blue Jays' rookie of the year.
But with 40 games remaining in the season, the side-arming southpaw is the odds-on favourite to capture this honour.
Buried in an organization bursting with pitching prospects and heralded young position players like Travis d'Arnaud, Anthony Gose and Adeiny Hechavarria, this little-known reliever wasn't even on the big-league club's radar in spring training.
But after pitching in 37 contests for AA New Hampshire, Loup was promoted on July 12 to replace Luis Perez, who underwent Tommy John surgery. Since being recalled, Loup has recorded a tidy 2.37 ERA, 0.58 WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Innings Pitched) and has walked just one batter in 19 innings.
The 24-year-old Louisiana-born lefty has also held left-handed hitters to a .125 batting average and hasn't allowed a home run.
"You're looking at a left-hander with a low-90s fastball, a breaking ball that's very effective that has really shown effectiveness against right-handers as well. But it's his poise and his presence that allows him to maintain not only composure, but the ability to execute," Jays manager John Farrell told the Toronto Star last week.
Of the nine Jays to make their major league debuts in 2012, Loup is the only one whose performance has likely assured him a spot on the club's 2013 roster. How have the performances of the other rookies impacted their future?
Here's a rundown (in chronological order by date of their debuts):
Evan Crawford
MLB Debut: April 15, 2012
After hurling four scoreless innings in spring training, this 25-year-old left-hander impressed the Jays brass and was called up on April 15. Unfortunately he was tagged for six runs including three home runs in 7 1/3 innings and was sent back down. He has been hit hard in 26 relief appearances in AAA Las Vegas and will enter spring training as a long shot to land a bullpen role with Toronto.
Should start 2013: In AAA
Drew Hutchison
MLB Debut: April 21, 2012
This 22-year-old right-hander seemed to be establishing himself as a reliable major league starter when an elbow injury sidelined him on June 15. In 11 starts, he posted a 5-3 record and a 4.60 ERA. Mature beyond his years, Hutchison showcased a good feel for pitching before undergoing Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out until at least September 2013.
Should start 2013: On disabled list
Yan Gomes
MLB Debut: May 17, 2012
After a torrid start at AAA Las Vegas, Gomes was called up and showed power and versatility during the season's first half. He has played four positions for the Jays - catcher, third base, first base and left field - but after registering just two hits in his last 26 at-bats, the free-swinging Brazilian was sent back to AAA. He should compete for a utility role next spring.
Should start 2013: In AAA
Sam Dyson
MLB Debut: July 5, 2012
This 2010 draftee underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2011 campaign. He began 2012 as a starter at Class-A Dunedin, before being converted into a closer at AA New Hampshire. When he was called up, Farrell trumpeted him as having "maybe the best overall stuff" in the organization.
But the 24-year-old right-hander's big-league performance - three earned runs in two-thirds of an inning - proved that his promotion was premature. Since being returned to AA, Dyson has continue to perform well in the closer's role, but his strikeout tally (just 16 in 39 1/3 innings) is alarmingly low for a power-armed pitcher.
Should start 2013: In AAA
Anthony Gose
MLB Debut: July 17, 2012
Boasting outstanding range, a potent throwing arm and tremendous speed, this Kenny Lofton-clone has shown flashes of brilliance during his 26 games with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, as his 34 strikeouts would attest, the 22-year-old outfielder is swinging and missing at too many breaking pitches, and as fun as he is to watch, his bat isn't ready for the majors.
Should start 2013: In AAA
Moises Sierra
MLB Debut: July 31, 2012
Sierra has been the most impressive rookie offensively. In 16 games, he's batting .333 and has belted two homers. The 23-year-old right-fielder possesses a strong arm, but has been undisciplined at the plate, on the basepaths and in the field. But with Travis Snider and Eric Thames traded, Sierra has risen dramatically on the Jays' outfield depth chart and his performance has put his name into the conversation for a big-league roster spot in 2013.
Should start 2013: In AAA
Adeiny Hechavarria
MLB Debut: Aug. 4, 2012
Like Gose, this vaunted Cuban infielder has displayed superb defensive skills, but looks overmatched at the plate. He has manned shortstop and third base, but the club's decision to play him at second on Aug. 19 may have given fans a sneak peek at the Jays' double-play combo (with Yunel Escobar at shortstop) of the future. And while Hechavarria's bat is still a work in progress, he can't fare much worse offensively than impending free agent Kelly Johnson has since the start of June.
Should start 2013: With the Blue Jays at second base
Chad Jenkins
MLB Debut: Aug. 7, 2012
In 20 starts at AA New Hampshire this season, Jenkins recorded an ugly 4.96 ERA, but since being summoned to the big leagues, he has allowed just one run in six relief appearances. Should Carlos Villanueva depart via free agency this off-season, Jenkins could take over as the club's swingman in 2013.
Should start 2013: In AAA