MLBMorrow is key to Jays' overall success in 2012

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The most important Toronto Blue Jays player in 2012 will not be Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie or Sergio Santos.

Sure, the club will benefit from having these three on their roster, but the player most likely to catapult the Jays into wild-card contention in the American League is Brandon Morrow.

If the hard-throwing right-hander, who topped the AL in strikeouts per nine innings last season (10.19), can finally blossom into the 15-to-18-game winner he has the potential to be, the Jays should be playing meaningful games in September.

As the Jays' pitchers and catchers participated in their first mandatory workout on Wednesday, Morrow is set to be the club's No. 2 starter behind Ricky Romero.

Unable to add another top-flight starter during the off-season, general manager Alex Anthopoulos will continue to work the phones this spring to try to improve a rotation that - outside of Romero and Morrow - is riddled with question marks.

Can the slimmed down Brett Cecil rebound from a disastrous 2011? Can the club really count on the injury prone Dustin McGowan for an entire season? Is 21-year-old Henderson Alvarez, who impressed in his 10 late-season starts, the real deal?

It's difficult to answer any of these questions in the affirmative. My gut tells me that the still promising Kyle Drabek will be in the rotation by June and that prospects Drew Hutchison and Joel Carreno will factor into the mix before September.

But if the Jays can salvage an average performance from whatever combination constitutes their final three starters and Romero continues his evolution into a bona fide ace, a breakthrough campaign by Morrow could determine whether the Jays find themselves in the wild-card race in September

Electric 4-seamer

Armed with a devastating slider and electrifying four-seam fastball, Morrow, who also occasionally features a sinker and a curve, has essentially been a two-pitch pitcher to this point. Fortunately, those two pitches are two of the best in baseball. Yet, due to control issues, bad luck and his poor performance with runners on base, Morrow fashions a 4.62 earned-run average over his two seasons in Toronto.

The 27-year-old right-hander's peripheral statistics, however, indicate that he was much better than his ERA. In 2011, for instance, Morrow recorded a 3.4 WAR - an all-encompassing statistic that measures how many wins a player adds above what a AAA replacement player at their position would contribute - which was actually better than Romero's (2.9).

And sabermetricians contend that FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a better gauge of mound performance than ERA. FIP assumes that pitchers have little control over balls in play, and focuses on things a hurler can control - including home runs allowed, walks, hit batsmen and strikeouts - and punches these totals into a formula to create a number that's a better predictor of future performance than ERA.

In 2011, Morrow's FIP was 3.64, while Romero's was 4.20. This would suggest that Morrow's 4.72 ERA in 2011 was out of whack with his actual performance and was largely a product of bad luck when balls were in play against him.

But Morrow is not without blame for his high ERA. His performance with runners on base over the past two seasons has been troubling. An interesting FanGraphs article pointed out that Morrow walks more batters when he has runners in scoring position than with the bases empty.

The article also notes that the golden-armed right-hander becomes more predictable with runners on base, relying almost exclusively on his slider and fastball to get batters out. As good as those two pitches are, baseball experts have suggested that Morrow needs to add an effective third pitch to his arsenal to become a truly dominant starter.

And while he has thrown the odd show-me curveball and sinker, Morrow unveiled a new cut fastball last September that helped him limit the opposition to three runs in his final 21 innings. Perfecting that pitch would not only help him end his woes with runners on base, but it could also make him an all-star.

The Jays inked Morrow to a three-year, $20-million US deal ($10-million team option for 2015) in January, so the club clearly believes that the flame-throwing righty can take his game to the next level. A lot of question marks surround this year's starting rotation, but Morrow finally harnessing his potential would compensate for mediocrity in the bottom of the rotation and could be the key to a wild-card run.

Revamped bullpen

After watching the Jays' relief corps blow 25 saves in 2011, Anthopoulos overhauled the bullpen this off-season. His most prominent acquisition was Santos, a 28-year-old infielder-turned-closer that recorded 30 saves and averaged 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 2011.

With Jon Rauch and Shawn Camp gone, Anthopoulos signed 41-year-old lefty Darren Oliver, who seems to get better with age, and veteran closer Francisco Cordero, who will serve as the team's set-up man. Though Cordero's velocity and strikeout totals have dipped in recent years, he proved in 2011 that he can still get batters out.

The Jays also reacquired Jason Frasor and re-signed Casey Janssen, both serviceable right-handed relievers. And opponents hit just .161 off of righty Carlos Villanueva in his 20 relief appearances in 2011.

With six bullpen spots spoken for, lefty Luis Perez and right-handers Carreno and Jesse Litsch will likely battle for the final spot. Out of minor league options and with Oliver being the only other southpaw reliever, Perez appears to be the favourite.

But opposing hitters pounded the left-hander in September (.415 batting average against him) and Litsch held hitters to a .204 batting average as a reliever. Carreno has the best arm of the three, but the Jays have to decide whether they want him to be a starter or a reliever.

Projected Pitching Staff:

Starters

1. Ricky Romero
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Brett Cecil
4. Henderson Alvarez
5. Dustin McGowan

Bullpen

1. Sergio Santos
2. Francisco Cordero
3. Darren Oliver
4. Jason Frasor
5. Casey Janssen
6. Carlos Villanueva
7. Luis Perez

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