September 11th in Hindsight: Recovery and Resolve

August 30, 2002
Toronto Star / SRC - CBC / EKOS Poll

Methodology | Highlights | September 11th in Hindsight | Risk, Threats and Security | Conclusions

Methodology

1. Telephone survey of the general public.

• 1209 completed interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and over (n=309 in Quebec)
• Interview period: August 26-28, 2002
• National results valid within +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (Quebec: + 5.7%)
  • The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided
  • It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error.

2. Results from Public Security Monitor, a weekly tracking of a national random sample of 2400 (300 per week) respondents between October 23rd to December 12th and a monthly tracking between January and July 2002.

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Highlights

Impacts important but neither as deep nor profound as expected

• September 11th definitely registered sizable impacts but these are smaller than expected and have abated as time goes by
• Last year nearly 80% thought their lives would be “deeply and permanently changed”; Now only 16% note a high personal impact and 33% a high impact on Canada.
• Canadians lean to the view that the world is profoundly and permanently changed but nearly half believe that things will be pretty much the same

September 11th increased sense our sense of “readiness for future attacks” and a “rebalancing/rethinking of life priorities”

• More disturbingly, events have increased negativity to Arabs/Muslims
• Modest, positive effects were noted on attitudes to the U.S. (feelings have cooled since immediate aftermath)
• Recognition that civil liberties/human rights have worsened

Trajectory/movement

• Restored or restoring: Economic outlook; immigration; risks, public priorities
• Undergoing change: Sovereignty (U.S. relations); tolerance; security vs. civil liberties
• Permanent or generational: World view (sadder, more vigilant, healthier balance of priorities)

September 11th in Hindsight

Examining the Impact and Response

Personal impact modest

• 16% say events had high impact on them personally;
• 54% think the events of September 11th have produced profound changes

Outlook dominated by sadness followed by resolve

• Few feel fear or anger
• Women lean to sadness; men equally likely to choose sadness and resolve

Closer ties to U.S.

• Sept. 11 produced “warmer” attitude to U.S. which has dissipated but not returned to pre-Sept. levels
• Shared security perimeter divides Canadians; support declining
• Strong support for participation with U.S. in Afghanistan but not Iraq

Government response seen positively

• Overall, good marks for governments in both countries (U.S. better)
• Balance of civil liberties and security good
• Directional support for Government of Canada excellent (up 20 points)

Impact of September 11th
Q: Overall, how much impact over the past year did the events of September 11th and the fallout from that event have on you personally? How about the overall impact on Canada?

Canadian’s Outlook
Q: As we approach the anniversary of September 11th, which of the following words best characterize your overall outlook?

September 11th – A life altering event?
Q: Which statement comes closest to your point of view?

Impact of September 11th
Q: Nearly one year later, please rate the impact of September 11th on the following areas:

Government Response to September 11th

Risk, Threats and Security

New outlook on civil liberties and tolerance

Security trumps values

• Recognition that civil liberties have been negatively affected
• Majority trusts government (though 1 in 3 do not) to strike the right balance

Less tolerance in ad hoc, not generalized manner

• Feelings toward Arabs/Muslims more negative
• 48% say ethnic profiling is okay; virtually unchanged since Sept. 2001
• Support for immigration remains strong and returning to pre-September 2001 levels

Low personal risk but more vigilance

• Sense of personal risk low but one in two think that another terrorist attack in U.S. is very likely
• Almost half of Canadians think that terrorist activities in Canada are a problem

In retrospect, strong support for participation in Afghanistan conflict

• As conflict evolved, Canadians became less supportive of continued participation
• No appetite for participation in Iraq conflict

Likelihood of Suffering from a Terrorist Attack
Q: How likely do you think it is that you and your family will suffer from a terrorist attack in the next two years?

Likelihood of U.S. Experiencing Another Terrorist Attack
Q: How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will experience another similar scaled or worse terrorist disaster in the coming year?

Concern Over Terrorist Activities in Canada
Q: Please indicate whether or not you agree or disagree with the following statements: We have a serious problem with groups supporting terrorist activities in Canada.

Racial Profiling
Q: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: Given current circumstances, I think that it is acceptable that airline, police and customs officials give special attention to individuals of Arabic origin.

Military Support in Retrospective
Q: In hindsight, do you support or oppose the Canadian military participation in Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11th? Please respond using a 7-point scale where 1 means strongly oppose, 7 means strongly support and 4 means neither oppose not support.

Support for Military Participation During Conflict
Q: Do you support or oppose Canadian participation in military retaliation in response to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001?

Support for Attacks in Iraq
Q: On the same scale, do you support or oppose Canadian participation if the U.S. and its allies decide to attack Iraq?

Canadian Attitudes Towards Immigration
Q: In your opinion, do you feel that there are too many, too few or about the right number of immigrants coming to Canada?

Conclusions

Bottom Line

World has changed but not as dramatically as we thought on Sept. 12, 2001

• Personal changes are modest; broad societal changes more significant
• Most significant shifts are in world view and values (which is impressive since these are typically inert and move more glacially)

Key shifts

• We are now sadder, more wary and more vigilant (importantly Canadians think terrorism is domestic problem)
• A different balancing which leans more to security than human rights has emerged
• We are selectively less tolerant (a new sense of us/them with Arab/Muslim world)
• Positively, values and belonging have risen (particularly in U.S.) and we have greater sense of balance/life priorities

Afghanistan military involvement was strongly supported; Iraq is not

Attitudes to government handling are generally positive (both Canada and the U.S.) and support for broad direction of Government of Canada is remarkably positive

• Desire for increased defence and security spending neither dampened desire for traditional priorities nor changed the desired role for the state in Canada

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