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Battleground Saskatoon Saskatoon has been one of Saskatchewan's economic and demographic bright spots, so it would be a cruel irony for the NDP if its citizens turn their backs on the party that has substantially represented it since 1986. It has turned before: In the great 1982 landslide, Saskatoon went completely Tory blue. Even NDP cabinet minister, constitutional go-to guy and future premier Roy Romanow was among the casualties, losing his Riversdale constituency by 19 votes to Jo-Ann Zazalenchuk. Current NDP leader Lorne Calvert is running there this time.
John Courtney, a University of Saskatchewan political scientist, said he doesn't see another landslide like that happening this time. But in a city where much has appeared to go well, the prevailing question appears to be this: maybe the city could do even better without the NDP, he said. Randy Burton, a veteran journalist with the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix, phrased it as some thinking the city is doing well in spite of the NDP. He can think of at least three seats were the Saskatchewan Party thinks it has a very good shot of winning: Saskatoon Silver Springs, Saskatoon Northwest and Saskatoon Southeast. To put that into context, a net gain of four seats by the Saskatchewan Party across the province would mean a change in government. With the NDP not expected to make gains in rural areas, holding on to what it has in cities becomes strategically important. In most of the city's 11 constituencies in 1999, the NDP won fairly handy victories. The only seat it lost was to Liberal leader Jim Melenchuk in Saskatoon Northwest, who himself will be an NDP candidate in this election. As it was, he only defeated the NDP candidate by 127 votes. Another seat that was problematic for the NDP was Saskatoon Southeast, where Pat Lorje eked out a 38-vote win over Grant Karwacki. In the 1991 and 1995 elections, when there was 10 seats, then-Liberal leader Lynda Haverstock won and held Saskatoon Greystone while the other nine went to the NDP. Prior to that, the NDP took eight of 10 constituencies in 1986, with the Tories holding two from their sweep. NDP veteran Pat Atkinson, who has represented the Saskatoon Nutana riding since 1986, said the city will be a tough, three-way fight amongst the major parties. But she was also proud of the way her government has served the city. Burton said one needs to look at Saskatoon almost as being two cities, politically speaking. The area inside Circle Drive, the city's ring road, is still solidly NDP, but the new suburbs outside it like the Saskatchewan Party's small-c conservative message of lower taxes and more economic growth, he said. In some of those new areas, one can find $300,000 monster homes – in comparison, the average selling price of a Saskatoon house was about $126,000 in 2002. "I don't know who lives in them," he said, but noted that the professional and business classes are less likely to be NDP supporters in any event. For local issues, there aren't that many, but Silver Springs is lacking a high school. Burton says both parties have promised the area high schools. Crown corporations, taxes and the role of government are the big provincial ones, he said. The NDP has run on a campaign promising the lowest package of utility rates in the country, one contingent on maintaining government control of the four major utility Crowns. That was aimed at its supporters in Regina, where the Crowns and provincial government are the big employers. Saskatoon has a much more business-driven economy, he said. On issues like health care, the NDP has a 12-year record to defend. "On almost every issue, that's the problem for them," he said. Atkinson admitted the government fatigue issue was a perception they had to fight. Conversely, Don Morgan, the Saskatchewan Party's candidate in Saskatoon Southeast, said that was one of his party's big advantages this campaign. Governments had to renew themselves, Atkinson said, adding, "we have a new premier and some new candidates." In two constituencies, the old Saskatoon Idylwyld and Saskatoon Fairview, two high-profile cabinet ministers won't be running again – Janice MacKinnon and Chris Axworthy. The latter ran finished second for the NDP's leadership against Lorne Calvert, while MacKinnon had been seen as having leadership potential. Interestingly, both were university professors on the right side of the party's spectrum. MacKinnon, a former finance minister, left in 2001 because she said she couldn't abide by a return to deficit budgets. Axworthy wanted to break the NDP from some of its traditions much the way Tony Blair had done with the Labour Party in Britain. A 2001 Leader-Star poll had Axworthy as being more popular than Calvert, but he failed to win enough support within the party itself. Atkinson said the Saskatchewan Party has been trying to use their views to discredit Calvert's NDP. Atkinson said the province's deficit problems aren't resulting from day-to-day operations, but stem from extraordinary expenses from things like BSE and the last two years of drought. She noted MacKinnon's budgets were sometimes balanced by dipping into the province's liquor and gaming fund, now the fiscal stabilization fund. In any event, Burton said the two candidates who replaced them are much more traditional NDPers. Teacher Dave Forbes won MacKinnon's seat; he is now seeking re-election in Saskatoon Centre. Union activist Andy Iwanchuk handily won a February byelection for Saskatoon Fairview, trouncing the Saskatchewan Party candidate by 2-1 margin. The Saskatchewan Party was accused of having lacklustre urban candidates in 1999. That appears to have changed. In Saskatoon Southeast, lawyer Don Morgan is seen as a star, having done a good job during his time as chair of the public school board, Burton said. He will be facing psychologist John Conway of the NDP (Lorje left politics) and Zoria Broughton of the Liberals, a teacher and administrator. Neil Sinclair will be running for the New Green Alliance. In Silver Springs, Ken Cheveldayoff – who bills himself as an entrepreneur in his biography but whom Atkinson described as a civil servant – is the Saskatchewan Party candidate. He will be competing against health inspector Russell Scott of the NDP and Shawn Flett of the Liberals. Atkinson said Scott has been very involved in lobbying for a new high school. Saskatoon Northwest will be interesting. Former Liberal leader Jim Melenchuk will be running under the NDP banner. Ted Merriman, a businessman and 2000-2001 Saskatoon citizen of the year, will be his Saskatchewan Party opponent. Merriman ran in the Riversdale byelection and finished second to Calvert by about 1,000 votes. NDP veteran and cabinet minister Peter Prebble will be facing off in Saskatoon Greystone against high-profile sports broadcaster Kevin Waugh of the Saskatchewan Party. One race where the Liberals should do well is Saskatoon Meewasin, leader David Karwacki's constituency. The NDP is putting up blue-chip lawyer Frank Quennell. The Saskatchewan Party candidate is psychologist Shelly Hengen. Grant Karwacki came very close to winning Saskatoon Southeast for the Liberals in 1999. He is now running in Saskatoon Nutana against former cabinet minister Atkinson. She more than doubled the vote count of her Saskatchewan Party opponent in 1999, with the Liberals barely cracking 1,000 votes. Interestingly, the Saskatchewan Party opponent this time is nurse and union activist Sandy Ewert, who describes herself as a former NDP supporter angry with the way the party has managed the health system. Atkinson was once health minister. Asked why the Saskatchewan Party didn't make inroads the last election, Morgan noted it was a new party rooted in rural Saskatchewan that had some association with the discredited Tory regime of Grant Devine. People have had four years to watch them in opposition. Their comfort level is much higher, he said, and the Saskatchewan Party itself is more mindful that it needs some urban success if it wishes to form government. His response to a question about being measured by Saskatchewan standards was this: "I'm not sure we want to use 'by Saskatchewan standards.'" People are sick of hearing Saskatchewan can't have more than a million people, or that the economy can't be grown. People want a government "that will do more for us," he said. In 1982, Grant Devine ended 11 years of NDP rule, in part by
campaigning on the theme 'there's so much more we can be.' It
would add to the potential irony if Fred Ozirney, the Saskatchewan
Party candidate for Riversdale, became the Jo-Ann Zazalenchuk
of his time. |
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