The Saskatchewan Party and the NDP still appear to be in a dead heat in the days before the Nov. 5 election. For the campaign teams, capturing the undecided voter and making sure their existing supporters actually vote are the keys to winning.

Aggregate polls, such as those released by the media in the days prior to the leaders debate, don’t really say what is happening in the campaign trenches, says University of Saskatchewan political science professor Joe Garcea.

If a party has huge margins in certain ridings but small ones in others, that can distort things, he says.

In 1999, the Saskatchewan Party edged the NDP in popular vote by less than one percentage point across the province. Nevertheless the Saskatchewan Party still won three fewer seats on election day. The Saskatchewan Party dominated rural areas while the NDP was strong in the cities.

In that election, 22 of the province's 58 races were decided by less than 1,000 votes and seven of those were less than 500 votes. This time the Saskatchewan Party needs a net gain of four seats to form the next government while the NDP needs a net gain of two.

		Close races in 1999
			This table shows the number of seats won by each party by 501-1,000 votes in 1999: Rural Urban SP 8 0 NDP 1 5 LIB 0 1 This table shows the number of seats won by each party by 1-500 votes in 1999: Rural Urban SP 1 0 NDP 1 3 LIB 1 1

To win a riding where there was a 500-vote split last time, you need to gain the support of 251 people. That means every vote counts, Garcea says.

"It's not the first 1,000 or 2,000 votes that are important, it's the last 200," he says.

The two parties are in a statistical dead heat, but if either one ekes out a number of small-margin victories, it could win a reasonable majority government, Garcea says.

At this stage, it appears there could be many such close races on Nov. 5. Parties need to poll at a regional or local level in places like Saskatoon – home of three of 1999's closest races – to see how support is shoring up and identify what message voters most want to hear.

"In close elections, it's really about who's got the best ground organization," Howard Leeson, a University of Regina political scientist says. For example, can you get your supporters to the polls on voting day?

Most people intending to vote have made their minds up by this stage. Canvassing is mainly about identifying potential support, not necessarily swaying the undecided, he says.

One problem political parties face is not only has voting participation fallen off, but so has political volunteerism. Many parties have gone to telephone canvassing, which isn't as effective in identifying potential support, he says.

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Incumbency is often a natural advantage because you have name recognition with voters and, hopefully, a reputation for competency. At the very least, there is the 'better the devil we know than the devil we don't' factor, Garcea says.

If you aren't an incumbent, or even if you are, there's the hard work of canvassing, meeting potential voters in malls, schools and shops, and "standing by the road, waving at motorists, looking like (a fool) and having a hell of a good time," was how Don Morgan, the Saskatchewan Party candidate in Saskatoon Southeast, put it in a recent interview.

All eyes on the leaders

In modern Canadian politics, there is a strong focus on the party leaders, particularly by the news media. The leaders are charged with selling their party's policies, message and image to the public on a province-wide basis. They are also required to lead, to inspire their troops to campaign like they're 100 votes behind.

The polls indicate that the NDP appears to have an advantage. Premier Lorne Calvert was picked by 31 per cent of people as the best choice for premier in the CBC-sponsored poll, followed by Saskatchewan Party leader Elwin Hermanson with 23 per cent approval and rookie Liberal leader David Karwacki with 18 per cent. An additional 25 per cent didn’t answer that question.

Read the CBC - sponsored poll - PDF version formatted for print (230 KB/15 pages)
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The CanWest-sponsored poll published in the Regina Leader-Post on Oct. 28 shows that Calvert would make the best premier with 44.5 per cent support from respondents, followed by Hermanson with 29 per cent and Karwacki with 22.4 per cent.

According the poll, conducted by Sigma Analytics 49.4 per cent of the respondents don’t want Hermanson to be the next premier, followed by Calvert with 29.9 per cent and Karwacki with 12.3 per cent. The Saskatchewan Party's Reg Down disputed that finding, along with the entire poll, which also gave the NDP a slight lead in popular support: 44.7 per cent to 42.1 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party. The Liberals were supported by 12.2 per cent.

The Sigma Analytics poll was conducted between Oct. 19 and 22. It surveyed 1,396 people and is considered accurate within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Garcea doesn’t think anything that happened during the Oct. 28 leaders debate would change those numbers significantly.

At the same time, the CBC poll found two-thirds of voters desire a change in government, something that is usually a clear government-killer.

Garcea interprets those findings for each of the various parties, listing what he thinks each needs to accomplish in the final days of the campaign:

NDP objectives
They must show people they have a:

• Vision for a positive future
• Plan to make it happen
• Competent management team

NDP obstacles
They include convincing people:

• Positive change can occur with the NDP in power
• That it won't be the status quo if NDP forms the government

As for The Saskatchewan Party, a desire for change should work in their favour. Here's what Garcea thought they should do:

Saskatchewan Party objectives
They must convince people they:

• Can bring positive change
• Are capable of managing that change
• Will not sell off the major Crowns

Saskatchewan Party obstacles
People, especially urban voters:

• Believe the party has a hidden agenda
• Aren't sure the party can be trusted to do the right thing

As for the Liberals, Garcea says they clearly aren't in a position to win the election. The best possible outcome is for Karwacki to convince people they can be "the eyes, the ears, the conscience of all those who don't trust the other parties."

Leeson says it would be important to watch where the leaders spend their remaining campaign time. For example, on the day after the leaders' debate, Hermanson started his day rousing the troops in Regina Walsh Acres and Regina Qu'Appelle Valley. The rest of his day was spent in Saskatoon. Hermanson has said his party will win several seats in Saskatoon.

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Calvert started with a campaign workers' breakfast in Regina, a media availability session in Melville, mainstreeting with his Yorkton candidate, a news conference, mainstreeting in Canora, then a community dinner in Humboldt. Melville and Yorkton are the constituencies for NDP cabinet ministers Ron Osika and Clay Serby.

Karwacki had a press conference in Lumsden followed by a meet-and-greet in Saskatoon.

Ads and the campaign

Besides the high-profile campaigning done by the leaders (hint: watch where they spend their time between now and voting day), the parties can also try and reach voters through mass-media advertising, especially TV advertising.

Garcea thinks the NDP and Saskatchewan Party has used effective ads, but thinks the NDP ads are undermining trust in the Saskatchewan Party on the issue of the Crowns was the most effective.

However, he also liked the Sask. Party ad where children speak of their desire to stay in Saskatchewan, saying, "it's a very powerful message."

Garcea says the Liberals, on the other hand, haven't produced any powerful advertising during this election.

Surprising things can happen in elections, and for all the reasons mentioned, "just because the polls suggest it is neck and neck doesn't mean it will end up that way on election night," Garcea said.

Those into the horse-race aspect of politics, however, should be treated with an unpredictable finish Nov. 5. And if it really is a dead heat, the province's direction might come down to a few candidates knocking on one more door or shaking one last hand in the dying hours of the 2003 provincial election campaign.