SASKATOON—With this election call, NDP Premier Lorne Calvert has begun the final leg of a race to see which of Saskatchewan's three party leaders will overcome significant liabilities to win the public's support.

There are many key campaign issues, but the leadership question is front and centre. In part, this is because of the former New Democrat leader's legacy. Roy Romanow was a consummate leader, managing his party's internal divisions with skill and foresight. His cabinet demonstrated fortitude in the early 1990s when it tackled large fiscal problems requiring unpopular policy remedies.

After winning majority governments in 1991 and 1995, Romanow faced difficulties in the 1999 campaign. When his party placed second in the popular vote, he adroitly brokered a stable coalition with the only three Liberals in the legislature. Romanow subsequently resigned and Lorne Calvert was elected as party leader early in 2001. He has faced much criticism in trying to put his stamp on the party and the government. Four criticisms are significant:

1. Calvert moved the party to the left. While this may have reassured some New Democrats, it exposed him to the charge that he is an old school, tax and spend socialist.
   
   
2. His government has been criticized for failing to balance annual budgets and control spending. This is a particularly sensitive issue for taxpayers. While some fiscal problems stemmed from unusual events such as the beef export ban, Premier Calvert's credibility on fiscal matters is thin.
   
   
3. He has had problems in managing his party and caucus. The 2001 leadership contest divided the party deeply, and subsequently many capable New Democrats left politics. Calvert has been criticized for failing to appoint women to his cabinet and ignoring key interests in the party as well as in the party's broader constituency.
   
   
4. Calvert has not defined his party for voters. Two and a half years after becoming premier, his government's overarching vision remains unclear.

Yet, Calvert retains a personal credibility that is rare among leaders. Many people trust him, and believe him when he commits his government toward certain goals such as reinvesting in health care or protecting provincial Crown corporations. Also, although his government has suffered several gaffes, the Calvert New Democrats have not suffered a devastating scandal or policy fiasco of their own making.

For the Saskatchewan Party Leader, Elwin Hermanson, capturing voters' trust is a test of his mettle. Since the last provincial election, he has matured as a leader. He has led his caucus in communicating with key constituencies. With the help of able members such as Arlene Julé, Hermanson deepened his party's social policy platform and softened its rhetoric. Potential cabinet ministers have been groomed and are ready. Today's Saskatchewan Party appears much more organized, capable and representative than in 1999. Importantly, it promises new people, new approaches, and new energy.

However, Hermanson has been criticized for failing to reassure people that a Sask Party government will take its mandate seriously, will act responsibly, and will respect the legislature and its bureaucracy. Fear about electing a party on the "scary right" disenchanted some crucial swing voters in 1999. The personal trust issue is Hermanson's Achilles heel.

The third place Liberals elected a new Leader after controversy over the 1999 coalition deal undermined the former leader. David Karwacki faces three large problems. First, it is not yet clear whether he has managed to unite Saskatchewan's most fractious party. Second, he is not well known. Third, he too has a credibility problem.

Rather than making policy promises, Karwacki's best strategy is to ask voters to replay the last election by sending a minority government to Regina with a few Liberals holding the balance of power. Of course, under Karwacki's leadership, this time the Liberals will not sell out to the NDP. Rather, they will lend legislative support only conditionally and so keep the other parties honest by virtue of their power to bring down the government.

This strategy seems reasonable, but it ignores the distrust generated by the Romanow-Melenchuk coalition deal. The presence of Jim Melenchuk, the former Liberal leader and current finance minister, running as a New Democrat candidate only serves to remind voters about the Liberals' credibility problem.

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