SASKATOON — The results of two media-sponsored polls released the last week surprised many people because they both showed that the NDP held a small, but statistically insignificant, lead at the halfway point in the campaign.

Effectively, both polls suggested the two main parties are tied among decided voters. Mr. Hermanson and the Sask Party immediately released the results of their internal polling, arguing the media polls were simply wrong. Rather than a dead heat, Mr. Hermanson contends his party has been in the lead since the election writ was dropped. Furthermore, the party says it currently holds a 10-point lead over the NDP.

So, whom should we believe?

Mr. Hermanson quickly reminded voters that the media-sponsored polls released days before the 1999 election reported that the NDP held a 20 per cent lead, which confidently indicated another majority government.

If the polls were so wrong the last time, he argues, they must also be wrong this time. Is Hermanson correct? Should we trust the Saskatchewan Party's numbers and ignore two media-sponsored polls conducted by two independent firms?

The difficulty in answering this question arises because we do not have the tools required to evaluate the Saskatchewan Party's results. For example, when was this poll conducted, what questions were asked, how many people were interviewed, and who conducted the poll? While Brad Wall of the Saskatchewan Party correctly raises concerns with some wording of questions in one of the media polls, we remain in the dark as to the questions his party's pollsters asked.

Media outlets have paid for their own polls for the past thirty years because they want an independent, unbiased examination of what voters are thinking. Before this, the media was forced to rely on results leaked by parties. They had no way to evaluate such results, especially in the case that different parties leaked conflicting results.

No one is claiming Mr. Hermanson is attempting to mislead the media. The problem is that, without full disclosure about how the poll was conducted, we simply lack the means to make an informed comparison between the Sask Party survey and the media-sponsored polls.

Interestingly, readers often face exactly the same problem when attempting to evaluate poll results reported in the media. Occasionally, the media provides their readers or audience members with the basic information necessary to make informed judgments about poll results. CBC, Saskatoon Star-Phoenix and the Regina Leader-Post did a good job of providing key poll information over this past week.

However, recent studies suggest this is the exception instead of the rule. Such studies have found many media stories, especially for polls that particular outlets did not sponsor, usually ignore important information as to how the poll was conducted. This happens because, in the absence of regulations, media outlets are left free to report as little or as much information as they desire.

So that citizens would be provided with more comprehensive information about how polls are conducted the Canada Elections Act was amended in May of 2000. The new provisions regulate when and how information about new opinion polls is to be disseminated during federal election campaigns. The regulations entrench existing industry standards toward ensuring full public disclosure of critical information about how polls are conducted, which is termed "polling methodology". This is seen as the information necessary to assessing any opinion poll's accuracy. As a result, Canadians enjoyed access to much better information about poll results during the fall 2000 national election.

Section 326 (1) of the Canada Election Act provides that the first person to transmit the results of a scientific election survey to the public, and every person who transmits them to the public within 24 hours after they are first transmitted, must include:

• name of the sponsor;
• name of the person or organization that conducted the survey
• date on which or the period during which the survey was conducted
• population from which the sample of respondents was drawn
• number of people who were contacted to participate in the survey
• if applicable, the margin of error in respect of the data obtained.

The print media are also instructed to communicate the wording of survey questions and the means by which election survey reports may be obtained. In addition, they must supply, upon request, copies of more detailed reports about the survey results.

These regulations helped to standardize the dissemination of information, so readers encountered the same sorts information in different media publications and broadcasts. Also, because the rules clearly set out what sorts of information must accompany stories about new polls, the regulations guided some journalists through the intricacies of reporting polling methodology.

The new rules clearly have many benefits and provide a model for Saskatchewan. Should the next provincial government move to adopt similar regulations, voters would be assured of receiving the information necessary to fully evaluate published opinion polling results.

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