SASKATOON-The issue of out-migration has permeated all policy being paraded out during the Saskatchewan election.

Last week, Saskatoon Northwest Liberal candidate Ken McDonough told a Saskatoon Co-operative Network crowd that he is concerned about the loss of about 3,600 students from rural school districts in each of the last four years. Since this is roughly equivalent to losing an entire population of a school district a year, McDonough used these figures to emphasize his party's commitment to rural communities.

Mr. Calvert is also preoccupied with the issue of out-migration. A news release titled "New Democrats Build the Future for Young People in Saskatchewan" presents a list of "integrated initiatives," such as easier access to Farm Credit Corporation funding and income tax rebates for post-secondary graduates remaining in the province. The Premier assures us that "there are more young people working today than ever before and we've turned the corner on out-migration."

The Saskatchewan Party's platform document summarizes 39 specific pledges aimed at growing the population by 100,000 people in 10 years. Initiatives here include eliminating the small business tax, rewriting labour legislation, and increasing post-secondary education budgets annually by 5% in each of the next four years. It concludes with leader Elwin Hermanson stating that, "A growing population...well-educated young people building their futures in Saskatchewan. That's the province I believe in. That's my vision for Saskatchewan."

All platform roads in this election seem to be leading to the province's population problem. To this issue, all others connect. If the connection is not obvious, then the lines are drawn by eager political candidates intent on ensuring voters understand that their particular party's guaranteed solution to the out-migration issue.

The stark decline in provincial population is a long-term trend that has been evident for the last 70 years. Saskatchewan is the like a new Newfoundland and Labrador as a net exporter of young, skilled workers. It boasts the oldest (non-aboriginal) population in the country.

So when Saskatchewan politicians pledge to retain "young people," they mean people 40 years old or less. The middle age cohort has been hollowed out owing to the problem of continuing out-migration. Statistics Canada's recent significant underestimation of the population decline is unwelcome, but not particularly surprising. According to Sasktrends Monitor's latest issue, Saskatchewan's population is now well below the largely psychological threshold of 1 million residents. Since the 2001 census there has been a 0.5 per cent overall decline. Canada's population, in contrast, grew by two per cent in the same period, led by increases of nearly three per cent in Alberta and Ontario.

Effectively, these statistics record the province's decline. A large population implies more workers, more employers, more taxpayers, more demand for public goods such as hospitals and schools, which in turn require doctors and teachers. Conversely, a shrinking population correlates with diminishment in key economic drivers.

While the statistics communicate cold, hard facts, the remedies have grown ever more fanciful. The current campaign is marked by highly unrealistic promises aimed at catching public attention.

The NDP and the Sask Party have promised approximately $1000.00 in after-tax credit to newly graduated post-secondary students. Each party assures us that this strategy will entice young people to remain home. In reality, this paltry sum will be completely insignificant in the decision calculus of people searching for careers and opportunities.

Hermanson's promise to bring 100,000 new people to Saskatchewan has elicited guffaws and much head shaking from demographers and development experts. Surely, no one expects this goal to be attained without, say, giving land away free as was done in the province's early history.

So, why are politicians proposing such entirely unrealistic solutions to address a problem that existed long before the CCF first took power in 1944? The answer lies in this issue's deep political symbolism. When the grandparents and great-grandparents of most of today's largely European immigrant population settled Saskatchewan, their numbers fuelled speculation that the keystone province might someday rival the wealth of Ontario or the economic gravity of trading centres such as Chicago. This is the original "Saskatchewan dream," and it began to fade soon after it was articulated. Yet, this memory is powerful and it explains why today's politicians are making impossible promises about a populous future. In fact, they are selling hope and that's something the citizens of Saskatchewan are buying.

The issue's symbolism explains why Saskatchewanians masochistically insist on comparing themselves to Albertans, rather than Manitobans. (Manitoba is a natural comparator, but references to it are rare.) Alberta is preferred because this sister province secured that which Saskatchewan sought: a booming, populous, mighty economy.

The old "Saskatchewan dream" fails to address pressing new realities of continuing out-migration. Moreover, it excludes what McDonough calls "our gold mine": the growing Aboriginal population.

On a swing through Saskatoon, in July federal cabinet minister Allan Rock spoke at a chic garden party about the need to address Saskatchewan's depopulation problem. A middle-aged Aboriginal gentleman asked Rock to explain why politicians are concerned about the declining white population, when the numbers of Aboriginal people are growing steadily. The gentleman pointed out that young Aboriginal people certainly are not leaving and he asked why there was such disinterest in fostering this group's economic participation in provincial development plans. Briefed only on the broad areas of policy concern, Rock couldn't answer this important question.

to top