Saturday October 03, 2015

Battleground - Heading into the final stretch

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, centre, and New Democratic Party Leader Tom Mulcair, right, chat on stage at the Munk Debate on Canada's foreign policy in Toronto, on Tuesday, September 28, 2015.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, centre, and New Democratic Party Leader Tom Mulcair, right, chat on stage at the Munk Debate on Canada's foreign policy in Toronto, on Tuesday, September 28, 2015. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

Listen 3:48

All five debates are done.

Now with just two weeks left of campaigning, polls analyst Éric Grenier looked at whether the first four debates had an impact on the electorate.

Éric also talked to The House about what he will be keeping an eye on as we get closer to voting day.

-On the impact of the first four debate:

It doesn't seem like the English-language debates had much of an impact. The first leaders debate, ​the impact on the Liberal numbers seemed to be more prolonged, in the longer term it did seem to help them. Overall when you look at the three debates and you look at the polls before and after the debates, they hardly moved at all. On average, you had a total of three points worth of movement across the three parties. That's about half of what we saw in the after the English leaders debates in the last three elections. So these debates with less of an audience do seem to have had less of an impact.

But the French leaders debate had a huge impact, a total of about twelve points worth of movement across the four major parties in Quebec. That's on par with the kind of movement that we've seen in French-language debates in past election debates. 

-On the things to watch in the final stretch of the campaign:

There are still a lot of people who are undecided and a lot of people who are still uncommitted. The largest swing group in the electorate is this Liberal-NDP swing group, and since a lot of those people are motivated by defeating Stephen Harper, what I'm going to be looking for is if we're going to see some movement towards one of those parties as we get closer to election day and people decide to go with who they perceive is the winner.

Listen to Éric Grenier's full interview with Chris Hall in the player above. 

Haven't got enough numbers? Éric Grenier joins The House over the campaign for a deep dive into the polls and the data surrounding various battleground ridings across Canada.

Follow parties' gains and losses here with the CBC's Poll Tracker.

Previously: