Saturday August 15, 2015

Battleground Watch - Saskatchewan

City of Regina.

City of Regina. (CBC)

Listen 3:24

The province of the blue skies and amber fields of grain has long been awash in Conservative blue — 13 of Saskatchewan's 14 seats went to the Conservatives in the 2011 federal election.

But that may change this time around, thanks to a dramatic redrawing of ridings that could give the NDP up to six seats in and around Regina and Saskatoon, the CBC's polls analyst Éric Grenier says.

"The old boundaries cut Saskatchewan up into rural-urban hybrids, where the NDP would win Saskatoon and Regina but lose the countryside — and that would be enough to give the seats to the Conservatives," he says.

"These seats are really at play, and seats that the NDP could now pick up."

The ridings up for grabs include Regina — Lewvan, Saskatoon — Grasswood and Saskatoon West. 

Grenier also looks at new post-debate polls that suggest the Liberals mounting somewhat of a comeback following Liberal leader Justin Trudeau's performance.

"We've never had an election that ended with three parties as close as they are now...where the margin between the first-place party and the third-place party was less than 15 points. So right now we're looking at a margin that's maybe four or five points," he says.

Haven't got enough numbers? Éric Grenier joins The House over the summer for a deep dive into the polls and the data surrounding various battleground ridings across Canada.

Follow parties' gains and losses here with the CBC's Poll Tracker.


This week's episode of the CBC Pollcast features guest .  joins host Éric Grenier to discuss how . You can listen below or download the podcast here.