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The scorecard: Monday byelections
- November 9, 2009 8:39 AM |
- By James Fitz-Morris
For those of you wanting to play at home Monday night - here's what you need to know about the four byelections:
Nova Scotia - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Results from the 2008 General Election:
Bill Casey Independent 69.0%
Karen Olsson New Democratic Party 12.3%
Joel E. Bernard Conservative Party of Canada 8.8%
Tracy Parsons Liberal Party of Canada 8.5%
(Source: Elections Canada)
Karen Olsson New Democratic Party 12.3%
Joel E. Bernard Conservative Party of Canada 8.8%
Tracy Parsons Liberal Party of Canada 8.5%
(Source: Elections Canada)
What to watch: When this riding's former MP, Bill Casey, split from the Conservatives to run as an independent, he brought his share of the vote from 52% to 69%. Will continued voter anger towards the Conservatives help another party take this riding?
Quebec - Hochelaga
Results from the 2008 General Election:
Réal Ménard Bloc Québécois 49.7%
Diane Dicaire Liberal Party of Canada 20.7%
Jean-Claude Rocheleau New Democratic Party 14.5%
Luc Labbé Conservative Party of Canada 9.2%
(Source: Elections Canada)
Diane Dicaire Liberal Party of Canada 20.7%
Jean-Claude Rocheleau New Democratic Party 14.5%
Luc Labbé Conservative Party of Canada 9.2%
(Source: Elections Canada)
What to watch: The is a Bloc stronghold and it would be a huge upset if it went any other way. However, where the other parties place will be key. Are the Liberals still the federalist alternative on the Island of Montreal? Is the NDP making any inroads now that they have an MP in the province?
Quebec - Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
Results from the 2008 General Election:
Paul Crête Bloc Québécois 46.0%
Denis Laflamme Conservative Party of Canada 30.6%
Jean Bouchard Liberal Party of Canada 15.4%
Gaston Hervieux New Democratic Party 5.5%
(Source: Elections Canada)
Denis Laflamme Conservative Party of Canada 30.6%
Jean Bouchard Liberal Party of Canada 15.4%
Gaston Hervieux New Democratic Party 5.5%
(Source: Elections Canada)
What to watch:This riding is just to the East of the Conservative's Quebec City toe-hold in the province. This also marks the fifth time voters in the riding have gone to the polls in a little more than a year. That means voter fatigue, which lends itself to low voter turn out -- and when only a few people cast ballots, funny things can happen.
British Columbia - New Westminister-Coquitlam
Results from the 2008 General Election:
Dawn Black New Democratic Party 41.8%
Yonah Martin Conservative Party of Canada 38.8%
Michelle Hassen Liberal Party of Canada 11.3%
Yonah Martin Conservative Party of Canada 38.8%
Michelle Hassen Liberal Party of Canada 11.3%
What to watch: This has been a relatively tight three-way race for a long while. The NDP has tried hard to make this one a referendum of sorts about the HST. Although technically a provincial issue, the federal government is pushing it, so could face voter backlash.
Biggest potential winner: Conservatives.
Going up the three seats they could potentially win would be a huge boost for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Would give Conservatives momentum, put an end speculation the party is dead in Quebec (outside of Montreal), and bring the Conservatives to four seats shy of an absolute majority*.
On the other hand, if the Conservatives fail to win back the long-time Conservative riding in Nova Scotia, it could once again point to trouble for the party in the Atlantic provnices..
Biggest potential loser: Liberals.
The party might place third in all four by-elections. To be fair, the Liberals have only ever won the Nova Scotia riding once (1993), haven't won either Quebec riding since 1980, and have never held the BC riding. Still, a 'government in waiting' needs to be at least the second choice of voters.
That also means when it comes to the Liberals' pain in these ridings, it will likely be the NDP's gain.
On the other hand, if the Liberals were able to at least come close one or more of these races, pundits MIGHT stop shovelling dirt onto Michael Ignatieff's grave for a little while.
*(Before the comments start that I can't do math, the Speaker is a Liberal MP and can only vote in the case of a tie, which there wouldn't be if the vote is 154 to 153.)
The party might place third in all four by-elections. To be fair, the Liberals have only ever won the Nova Scotia riding once (1993), haven't won either Quebec riding since 1980, and have never held the BC riding. Still, a 'government in waiting' needs to be at least the second choice of voters.
That also means when it comes to the Liberals' pain in these ridings, it will likely be the NDP's gain.
On the other hand, if the Liberals were able to at least come close one or more of these races, pundits MIGHT stop shovelling dirt onto Michael Ignatieff's grave for a little while.
*(Before the comments start that I can't do math, the Speaker is a Liberal MP and can only vote in the case of a tie, which there wouldn't be if the vote is 154 to 153.)
About the Authors
- Rosemary Barton started her television career reporting from Quebec City where she covered the ins and outs of Quebec politics. She moved to the CBC Parliamentary Bureau in 2007. She also stood on the side of road awaiting U.S. President Barack Obama's motorcade for hours in the cold. When she finally spotted him, all of Canada heard her shriek, "I saw him!"
- Alison Crawford worked in Fredericton, Calgary and Winnipeg before returning to her hometown to work in the CBC parliamentary bureau. Her beats include the RCMP, justice, public safety and the Liberals. Alison credits her investigative skills as well as a national etiquette column and coverage of a ferret Christmas party, with having prepared her for covering national politics.
- James Cudmore has been a national newspaper reporter, a national television reporter and a national radio reporter. He's reported from every province and territory in the country. James has been, in no particular order, a bouncer at a Toronto night club, a book-seller, a house-painter, a soldier, a prep-cook, an ice-cream scooper, coffee-server, dish-washer, and paper boy. James has covered three federal elections from Ottawa, and two more from Alberta. James covers Defence for the CBC and has reported from Afghanistan. He also covers politics (but most days would rather be cooking).
- Louise Elliott has been a national reporter on the Hill since 2002. As a regular contributor to CBC Radio's The House, she has tackled stories about policy and politics that range from food labelling to refugee policy to the G20. Elliott has won numerous awards, including two Radio Television News Director Awards and a Canadian Association of Journalists award for her series on the spraying of chemical defoliants at CFB Gagetown. In 2003, she received a National Newspaper Award for political journalism.
- James Fitz-Morris came to Parliament Hill 10 years ago as the bureau chief for two private radio stations. In 2005, James joined CBC so he could report without pausing for "important messages from his sponsors." His primary beats are foreign affairs and finance, making him the bureau's resident number-cruncher and exchange rate converter. He's also worked in Beirut, Lebanon. He speaks English and French fluently, and is still grappling with Arabic.
- Chris Hall is the National Affairs Editor for CBC News. He's been a member of the CBC Parliamentary Bureau since 1998. That adds up to 11 budgets, four elections, three prime ministers and too many confidence votes to count. Chris started his career in print before moving to the CBC in 1992. Since then, he's worked in Toronto, Halifax and St. John's, as well as Ottawa.
- Susan Lunn started reporting in her home town of Halifax in 1986, where she had wrote a column called pet-pourri. But like many other maritimers, the bright lights of Toronto beckoned. She was hired in 1990 by the CBC and has worked in so many locations her mother still writes her address and telephone number in pencil in her address book. She has been in Ottawa now for a record seven years.
- Leslie MacKinnon Leslie's been working in news and current affairs since newsrooms used teletype, televison was shot on film and radio tape was edited with a razor blade. She saw through The Journal's long run on CBC-TV, and since then has worked in Halifax, Toronto and Ottawa in the CBC's various permutations. Right now, she's a TV news reporter in the political bureau, and likes certain parts of Ottawa - the canal, the Hill - a lot.
- Janyce McGregor has been a television producer in the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau since 2001. She started her career working for Studio 2 on TVOntario. In 2005 her then-doctoral student husband persuaded her to follow him to the U.K., where she worked for BBC World Service Radio in London. Janyce is originally a farm girl from southwestern Ontario. Her most important job title is "Norah's Mom."
- Kady O'Malley has been covering the Hill for more than a decade (yes, really) for a variety of publications. An Ottawa girl (not quite born, but raised), she has a passion for politics that borders on the unhealthy, and has liveblogged her way through hundreds of committee meetings, press conferences, judicial inquiries, budget launches, cabinet shuffles, and even the odd constitutional crisis. Oh, and yes, her Boston Terrier really is named "BlackBerry."
- Chris Rands has been a member of the Parliamentary bureau since 2001. He started at Toronto's AM Radio giant CFRB before moving to CBC's National Radio News in 1996. Chris has worked in Toronto, Moncton, Sudbury, Regina, Washington and St John's. Every time Chris walks up to the Peace Tower, he wants to throw his hat in the air like Mary Tyler Moore.
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