Final unspinning

I always used to think the word momentum was so overused in the world of sports or political races that it verged on being considered a cliché.

I've now changed my opinion. After covering the last month of the P.E.I. election campaign, I can actually say I've seen a shift in attitudes by the two leading parties. And it has nothing to do with the big poll released last Saturday in the Guardian.

In the dying days of the legislature last month, there was a certain swagger or cockiness from the Tory MLAs. Provincial ministers routinely missed large chunks of the session and question period was something of a sport for the governing Tories as they took potshots at the Liberals.

Whenever the Liberals asked a question of government, the usual response from whichever minister was on the hot seat would be that the Liberals were against tourism, agriculture or whatever the topic happened to be at the root of a question.

I can see how easy it would be for the Tories to slip into this sense of entitlement. After all, when the election was called on April 30, the Tories held 23 seats compared to just four for the Liberals.

The momentum was definitely sitting square on the side of the premier when he went to Pinette in his home district to drop the writ. Hundreds of Tory supporters were there to watch as all the sitting MLAs were called to the stage. Loud upbeat music and standing ovations filled the gymnasium. It was just like the opening ceremonies before a Stanley Cup playoff game.

Meanwhile in Cornwall that same night, longtime Liberal MLA Ron MacKinley was going through the motions of being nominated to run in Cornwall. All the Liberal candidates were present but there was definitely a different mood than down east with the Tories. Leader Robert Ghiz had a hard time pumping up the troops. It seemed Ghiz was the only person excited.

The others clapped politely and while there was the usual rhetoric one would expect in the lead-up to an election campaign, the buzz was a little flat.

The first week of the campaign was full of announcements and the premier was all smiles. He had all his Charlottetown-area candidates at a kickoff rally at UPEI. And he said if re-elected, he would stay on as premier for his full mandate. He avoided answering a question about what he would do if he were leader of the Opposition.

By the end of Week 1, the Tories still had the momentum. But something happened over that first weekend that left me scratching my head. The first shot at the Tories: an allegation that the premier's office intentionally held back the release of a report on MLA salaries. The story appeared on the front page of the Saturday newspaper.

Behind the scenes something was going on in the Tory bunker that weekend. A press release was sent out to reporters first telling them that Monday's news conference would be about taxes. Then that press release was cancelled, and reporters were told to go to Stratford Town Hall for an education announcement. And that was when the momentum started to shift.

On the Monday, Premier Pat Binns announced a new 15-million dollar school for Stratford. He did this despite the fact the Eastern School District is still trying to figure out whether a school is needed.

Some have speculated Binns made the announcement because the Tory candidate in that district was polling poorly. Others suggest the reason was because Binns wanted a good-news announcement to balance the controversy over the Saturday news article.

The Liberals refused to match the announcement and I got the feeling over the next few days that Islanders respected Robert Ghiz for that position.

As that week went along, I started noticing a subtle change in attitude between the parties. At one Liberal announcement, the candidates were downright giddy before the announcement took place. Contrast that to the Tories, who were reserved and cautious at most of their announcements.

Ghiz was looking spry and full of vigour. Binns's body language projected a tired old leader.

And then there was the poll. If momentum hadn't shifted by then, it definitely did last Saturday when the Guardian announced "Red Tide Surging." Pollsters were boldly predicting a majority government for the Liberals. The front page even suggests a seat breakdown of 18 for the Grits and nine for the Tories.

Is it an accurate snapshot of what Islanders think? Will it act as a self-fulfilling prophecy? Who knows? The only thing for sure is that the Liberals were riding a big wave into the final week of the election campaign.

The question on everyone's mind is, "Will that wave of momentum crash before the vote, or will it be enough to push the Liberals into government for the first time in 12 years?"

CBC will provide full coverage Monday night for the answer to that question, on 96.1 FM, CBC Television, and here at CBC.ca/peivotes2007.

Election Unspun: Week One

The parties were in full spin mode during the first week of the election. It was enough to make you dizzy. Old promises are new again, schools once considered not a priority are now top of the list. And then there's the message the parties are trying to get out about their candidates, and more importantly, their leaders. CBC Radio's legislative reporter Brendan Elliott unspins the spin.

Listen to this audio feature (runs 10:21)

Election Unspun: Week Two

Now there's a promise of a new school for North Rustico, tax breaks for students, various announcements pertaining to health care. Legislative reporter Brendan Elliott unspins some of the messages the politicians have been doling out over the past week.

Listen to this audio feature (runs 10:44)

Election Unspun: Week Three

A poll showed the Liberals heading for a big win, or was it a virtual tie. Brendan Elliot unwinds some media spin, including what the media means when it talks about "leaked documents."

Listen to this audio feature (runs 11:41)