Canada's medal chances will be near end of Games
CEO of Own the Podium urges fans, media to be patient in medal count race
Last Updated: Wednesday, February 3, 2010 | 11:17 AM ET
Dan Robson CBC Sports
Jennifer Heil won gold in freestyle moguls at the 2006 Winter Games in Turin. She is a favorite to lead Canada's medal quest in Vancouver. (Greg Baker/Associated Press)Like any great sporting event, it will come down to the finish.
Canada's best Olympic medal contenders will perform when we need them the most, but that won't be until the final days of the Winter Games.
Expect the podium to be filled with German and U.S. athletes for the first 12 days of the Games, said Roger Jackson, CEO of Own the Podium, the $117 million, five-year plan to help Canadians dominate in the Summer and Winter Games.
Canada, meanwhille, will win most of their medals in the last five.
That's because many of Canada's strengths — hockey, curling, short-track and long-track speedskating, four-man bobsleigh, freestyle skiing aerials, figure skating and snowboard parallel giant slalom — will only wrap up in the final days of the Vancouver Games.
"As you watch the medal totals day by day, what you need to know is we don't expect Canada to challenge for the lead until the last few days of the Games," Jackson told reporters Tuesday during a teleconference.
"Halfway through the Games, by Day 8, it may well be the United States and Germany are far ahead of Canada — possibly with up to 20 medals in their case and possibly around 10 medals in Canada's position."
But Jackson urged the media and public to remain calm. From Day 13 to Day 16, Canadian athletes could win 12 or more medals. It's merely a matter of scheduling.
"Be patient," was Jackson's advice for antsy fans and over-anxious reporters.
Own the Podium has helped create a group of Olympians the nation will be proud of, Jackson said.
At least 30 athletes or teams are in top positions to win medals, based on how they have fared in their specific sports over last year. And another 30 athletes have consistently been in the fourth, fifth, and sixth spots in their respective world rankings.
"So, we have about 60-plus athletes who are in a position to actually achieve success," said Jackson.
Germany has around 60 athletes in the same "top six" position as Canada while the U.S. has slightly fewer, Jackson said.
"We expect these three countries will be battling it out throughout the Games for the honour of who might lead in the overall medal totals," he said.
At the 2006 Olympics in Turin, Italy, Germany led the count with 29 medals. The U.S. tallied 25 to finish second overall.
Canada came in third with 24 — regarded as our best Olympic showing to date (Canada won 44 medals at the boycotted 1984 Summer Games in Los Angeles). Austria and Russia rounded out the top five countries in 2006, with 23 and 22 medals, respectively.
It's expected that if Canada is going to land on top of the overall medal count standings at the 2010 Olympics, it will have to win more than 25 medals in Vancouver.
