Features

Minority report

If you want to know when this election started, flip the calendar back to Aug. 5, 2003.

Cranky voters reduced John Hamm's Progressive Conservative government to 25 seats, two shy of a majority in the 52-seat house. The New Democrats became the official Opposition with 15, while the Liberals ended up with 12.

Nova Scotia 2003 Election Results

Reduced to a minority government, the Tories were forced to win over the support of one of the opposition parties in order to pass a budget and stay in power.

Hamm managed to do that in 2004. After he agreed to cover the full health costs of seniors in long-term care – a key part of the NDP platform – New Democrats voted for the budget.

In 2005, the official Opposition again supported the Tory budget and, by extension, the government.

And in 2006? No one got a chance to vote on the budget. The new premier, Rodney MacDonald, pulled the plug on his government just days after his first budget was tabled, sending Nova Scotians to the polls.

At dissolution, the breakdown of seats looked quite similar to 2003, except the Liberals had dropped to 10 and there was one independent and one vacant seat.

Technically, the Tory government had another two years left in its mandate.

But no one should be surprised that Nova Scotia's rookie premier called an election now, says Dave Johnson, a political scientist at Cape Breton University.

"This is very much about Rodney MacDonald."

MacDonald, 34, assumed the job of premier from Hamm after winning the Progressive Conservative leadership on Feb. 11, 2006. The MLA for Inverness had been the minister of tourism, culture and heritage.

• FROM FEB.11, 2006: N.S. Tories pick youthful leader

MacDonald tried to put a fresh face on his government, bringing five rookies to cabinet and shuffling almost every existing cabinet minister's responsibility.

Soon after he was sworn in on Feb. 24, he hit the road, making one good-news announcement after another. His government also dealt with several hot-button issues, including gas regulation, to give drivers a heads-up about skyrocketing pump prices, and a $65-million bailout for the struggling Stora Enso paper mill in Cape Breton.

• FROM MAY 9, 2006: Tories forecast 5th balanced budget in a row

MacDonald wants to show he's no mini-Hamm, says Johnson. "He also has the benefit of running the province in relatively good economic times."

Nova Scotia got more money from the federal government. In early 2005, the province reached a $1.1-billion deal with Ottawa over oil and gas revenues, which included an upfront payment of $830 million.

A poll from early 2006 suggests MacDonald's Tories were winning over Nova Scotians.

According to a survey by Corporate Research Associates released in March, the Tories had 36 per cent of decided voters, compared to 29 per cent for the NDP and 27 per cent for the Liberals.

Tory scandals

There were some embarrassing moments for the Hamm government.

In 2004, the Tory government rescinded a 10 per cent income tax reduction for thousands of Nova Scotians, saying the province couldn't afford it. The tax cut was a major plank of the Tory campaign in 2003.

Just before Hamm stepped down as premier, his government was accused of a conflict-of-interest scandal involving loans to an amusement park and a potato farm. The economic development minister at the time, Ernie Fage, resigned.

Though MacDonald was a cabinet minister at the time, he's selling himself as a new leader with his own style, says Dave Johnson.

Liberal change

On the opposition side, the Liberals also changed leaders.

Danny Graham stepped down in December 2003 to help his wife in her battle against thyroid cancer. Businessman Francis MacKenzie, a newcomer to politics, won the Liberal leadership in October 2004.

Graham's Halifax Citadel seat has been vacant since he stepped down as MLA in October 2005.

The Liberals also lost one member. Russell MacKinnon, the MLA for Cape Breton West, has been sitting as an independent since quitting the party in April 2005 over a difference of opinion.

The NDP still has its leader, Darrell Dexter.

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