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July 17, 3:04 p.m. - Transportation Issues I would like to hear each of the candidates address Nova Scotia's responsibility to the commitments of the Kyoto Protocol, with specific focus on transportation. The Hamm government has promised significant funds to roads in the coming years. At the same time, Canadian census data indicates that Nova Scotians have highly inactive lifestyles and rates of childhood obesity are soaring. Transportation modes have a tremendous effect both on our environment and our physical health. What is each candidate’s platform on transportation within the province and in particular alternative and sustainable transportation modes? - Susanna Fuller
July 17, 3:09 p.m. - Dan Leger defends CBC’s poll reporting In spite of our long phone conversation, Dan Leger still isn't crunching his numbers properly. Only about 444 respondents to this poll said they had decided how to vote.According to the pollster, 34 per cent of the "decideds" said they planned to vote for the Conservatives, 34 per cent chose the Liberals and 26 per cent supported the NDP. But the margin of error for this sample increases to approximately 4.5 percentage points, not the 3.7 percentage points Dan Leger relies on. That's because the smaller the sample size, the higher the margin of error. (By the way Dan, if you check with pollster Don Mills, he'll confirm this.)
So, the poll shows that when the survey was done, 34 per cent or about 150 decided voters said they planned to vote Conservative. But who cares how 150 people plan to vote? The important thing is to figure out the intentions of all possible voters in the province. The margin of errorshows possible variations.Assuming the poll was conducted properly, it showed that at this point in the election campaign, Conservative support ranged from a low of 29.5 per cent to a high of 38.5 per cent. Ditto for the Liberals. NDP support ranged from a low of 21.5 per cent to a high of 30.5. Obviously there's quite a wide range here --- one that math-challenged journalists shouldbear in mind. Although, the media report fixed numbers such as 34 per cent support for the PCs, polls really show a range of support when the results are projected onto the whole population. If another polling company had conducted a survey during the same time period, asking the same questions and using the same methods, it might have found this result: Conservatives 34, NDP 30, Liberals 30. Although this would produce a very different news story, this result is still within the margin of error of the original poll. Don Mills would be perfectly justified in saying that this second poll confirmed the accuracy of his survey. Now suppose a third company produced this result: Liberals 38, Conservatives 34, NDP 22. Although this is still within the original poll's margin of error, the news media would report that the Liberals had surged ahead of the PCs and that the NDP were pretty well out of the race. Yet once again, this hypothetical third poll is within the margins of error of the other two. In its reporting, the CBC did not use the smaller sample of "decided" voters but instead relied on the entire survey of 702 voters. Of this number, 22 per cent said they planned to vote Conservative, 22 per cent chose the Liberals and 17 per cent supported the NDP. The margin of error for the larger sample of 702 is 3.7 percentage points. Thus Conservative and Liberal support ranged from a possible high of 25.7 per cent to a low of 18.3. NDP support ranged from a high of 20.7 per cent to a low of 13.3. What if a second polling company had reported the following results: Liberals 23, NDP 20, Conservatives 19? TheCBC would have reported the results of this poll very differently from the original poll, yet it is still within the possible ranges reported by Don Mills. I would say that the CBC/Herald poll showed a very close election in the early part of the campaign. Yes, it's possible to say that the poll showed the Conservatives and Liberals tied with the NDP "trailing" (as anchor Linda Kelly put it) but this is an interpretation of the results. It is an interpretation, not a fact. I would say it is a fact that this poll tells us much less than the CBC and the Herald claimed it did. - Bruce Wark
July 17, 6:09 p.m. - Local candidates debates I have noticed in recent provincial elections that there have been no candidate’s debates in my riding (Preston area). In this election and in the last election, I asked the incumbent if a debate was to be held and both times was told that the incumbent would be happy to participate if “they” organized one. I don’t know who “they” are. I find a personal debate an excellent way to hear all the candidates voice opinions on issues and answer questions from the public. I know that the party leaders intend to debate but I have to vote locally and would like the debate format used in my constituency. Could you please raise this issue with the party leaders in your interviews? I would like to see public candidates debates be mandatory in all constituencies. - Debbie Reeves
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