Summertime and the living was easy
Dan Leger | CBC Online News | July 7

To most of us, summer is a glorious waste. The sun is out, the beaches are warm, the beer is cold. This time of year, Nova Scotia is an enchanted place where the hardships of winter are forgotten, the gardens and golf courses are in all their verdant splendour, the family comes home to visit from away and we’re all quite happy to while away the hours in contented oblivion.

But one Nova Scotian seems to have other memories of summer. John Hamm must be immune to the temptations of the season. He’s called an election when most Nova Scotians would rather talk about anything than politics.

So why now? Depends who you ask.

My Liberal and NDP friends smell something distinctly unsavoury in this. They think Hamm is going to the polls now exactly because voters are in their usual summery haze. Their scented land is green and lush and they really aren’t mad at anyone. And the only way any government gets defeated is by energizing angry citizens over an issue or issues and then asking for their votes when they are in no generous mood.

“This is pure manipulation,” grumbled one friend who claims to have voted for all three parties and hold allegiance to none. “Hamm sent out those $155 cheques in June and calls an election in July? It’s unethical.”

The Liberals tend to agree. “This is sheer opportunism,” said one Liberal campaign strategist, “holding an election on the quietest day of the year. It’s just so transparent.”

The Tories take umbrage at that. A Tory insider I spoke to says the timing is purely the result of the long-term Conservative agenda and he traces its roots back to the original promises of the Hamm government when it was elected in the summer of 1999. He accuses the news media of revving up election speculation since the legislature adjourned in the spring.

“The premier had a to-do list. We had to get the budget out and we did that. We promised to cut taxes – that decision was made over a year ago. And that’s what those cheques are, a tax cut. There was no way we could go before those cheques were sent out so this was the obvious time to go.”

But judging from the way Hamm was received when he went out campaigning on Monday, the voters might be seeing that differently. Hamm faced some angry voters at a local Tim Horton’s, and the issue they identified was timing.

Leadership question

So, the lazy and hazy days of summer are being pushed aside for the crazy stuff: politics. And there’s little point arguing now about timing. Nova Scotians will have to decide on the issues and on the question of leadership, which is really the key part of the Tory strategy.

The Conservatives perceive John Hamm to be their strongest campaign asset. He is the rock-ribbed Pictou County doctor who doesn’t campaign on Sundays, let alone go shopping. Remember, while this is the party that produced Robert Stanfield, it’s also the party that created John Buchanan. So the Tories are sensitive when it comes to the public perception of their leader. Even its campaign Web site touts “A Proven Leader, A Plan that’s Working” with pictures of the smiling doctor on the front page and no one else.

For the other two parties, the challenge now is to rouse Nova Scotians from their summer reveries and get them out to vote on Aug. 5. The New Democrats, who occupied the official opposition offices at dissolution, have plainly identified car insurance as their key issue. They’re hoping to get some traction from the huge role that insurance played in the near defeat of the Conservatives in New Brunswick. They came within 16 votes of being defeated last month by a resurgent Liberal party and anger over high insurance rates was the key factor.

The Conservatives in New Brunswick were vulnerable because they had not articulated a clear strategy to deal with skyrocketing rates. Here in Nova Scotia, the NDP has successfully made car insurance its key policy and leader Darrell Dexter has ably made the case for a government-run system. Of course the NDP would prefer we all call it a “driver-owned system,” which is just so much blather because its proposal means a government institution will be created to nationalize an industry now in private hands. But the NDP proposal is a clear alternative to the private-sector preferences of the Liberals and the Conservatives.

The NDP did present an effective opposition in the legislature, but therein lies the rub. Many people perceive the NDP as a party in perpetual opposition, a good balance to the Liberals and Tories, but not necessarily ready for prime time as a government. That could hurt the party’s chances in a close election campaign.

So how about those Liberals? Danny Graham has been leader for just over a year and hasn’t had much time to make inroads with voters. His style is understated and earnest. He doesn’t seem to have the killer instinct characteristic of other great Liberal leaders. But he does have the legacy and the Liberal brand name, which is unparalleled in terms of electoral success.

The Liberal party has proposals on health care and education and it has castigated the Tory rebate cheques as a cynical attempt to buy votes. The Liberals have put together a candidate team after some initial disappointments attracting star candidates.

But it is an uphill battle for the youthful Graham. His party takes heart from the unexpected success of the 30-something Shawn Graham in New Brunswick (no relation to Danny) and emphasizes its leader’s vitality and energy compared to the retirement-age premier with his chronic bad back.

But history works against Danny Graham and the Liberals, and against the NDP for that matter. Not since Confederation has a majority government in Nova Scotia been denied a second mandate, and unless something strange happens under the summer sun, it’s hard to see why that would change four weeks from now.

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