When later isn't better
Peter Boswell | Sept. 29

After months of apparent dithering and missed opportunities, Liberal Premier Roger Grimes has finally called a provincial election. Grimes’ hesitation has fueled speculation that he was delaying the election call for any number of reasons, including a difficulty in getting credible candidates in several ridings and waiting for a sure-fire election issue.

All this procrastination even drove Danny Williams, the leader of the Progressive Conservative opposition, to announce in early September that he was tired of waiting for Grimes to call an election and was going to start the campaign without him. Nice move; but then Williams refused to release details of his party’s platform – even to his own candidates.

In any case, the official campaign is now underway and it will be a real test for the leaders of both major parties, neither of whom has previously led his party into an election. While Williams, of course, had no opportunity to put his leadership to the test since taking over from Ed Byrne two and one-half years ago, this was not the case for Grimes, who could have called an election at any point since he became Premier in February, 2001.

Initially, many anticipated that Grimes would want to obtain his own mandate rather than serving out the balance of Brian Tobin’s 1999 term of office. However, the resignation of his leadership rivals and key ministers John Efford and Paul Dicks underlined serious problems within the Liberal party. Grimes apparently deduced that going into an election with a bitter and divided party was not a good idea.

Voisey's Bay didn't spark election

Then in June of last year, with the wounds in the Liberal party beginning to heal, a deal with Inco to develop the Voisey’s Bay nickel deposit was signed in a lavish and high-profile ceremony. Many expected that this would provide the kick-off for an election campaign.

But again, Grimes held off. Some observers wondered if he was waiting for the completion of an agreement to develop the Lower Churchill hydro project, the second major plank in the Liberals’ 1999 campaign platform. Perhaps he was, but despite on-again, off-again negotiations with Quebec and occasional announcements that a deal was forthcoming, no agreement was reached.

Another “opportunity” came with Grimes’ strange reaction to the federal closure of the remaining northern cod fishery earlier this year. Progressing from roars of outrage to a confusing promise to not prosecute violators of the fishery closure, Grimes introduced a resolution in the House of Assembly to renegotiate the Terms of Union to include joint management of the fishery. Perhaps the temptation to call an election on the issue was tempered by the endorsement of all parties for the resolution or by Grimes’ spectacularly unsuccessful campaign for support across Canada. In any case, the moment passed.

Bland report from royal commission

The report of the Royal Commission on Renewing and Straightening Our Place in Canada might have also been the catalyst for an election, but the report was much blander and temperate in its recommendations than the Liberals might have hoped. Grimes was left casting about for a catchy election issue.

Drawing on recent election experience in other provinces, his latest idea was auto insurance. Although the Liberals were first out of the gate with their promise to reduce auto insurance costs by 30%, the Tories and New Democrats were not far behind. Recalling the House of Assembly to deal with the issue, as Grimes had promised, would not likely have made the situation any clearer, although poorly thought-out legislation might well have been passed.

While the province was saved that possibility, we lost the benefits from the other major legislation that Grimes had promised to deal with in the House – election reform. All of the uncertainty and game-playing about when the election will be called could have been avoided in the future had the new Elections Act, which would have specified that elections be held every four years, been passed.

Time running short

Unfortunately for the Liberals, their search for a winning issue almost ran out of time. And the longer they waited, the more desperate their plight appeared.

CRA public opinion polls have shown the Tories well in the lead for the past year with the most recent poll indicating that 54% of respondents would vote for the Progressive Conservative party compared with 36% for the ruling Liberals. Even more telling, 52% preferred Williams as premier compared to 27% who preferred Grimes.

Since one of the key issues in this election campaign is likely to be leadership, Williams might be able to capitalize on the indecision exhibited by Grimes – dithering about recalling the House, hesitance to call an election, backing off on the fishery, giving mixed signals about the Lower Churchill, creating an expensive royal commission only to ignore its report.

Several respected Liberals have decided not to run again – some even being unceremoniously dumped from cabinet by Grimes in an apparent fit of pique. In contrast, all sitting Conservative MHAs are running again and the Tories have picked up some high profile candidates. It would appear that, in contrast to the 1999 election, the Tories are ready to roll.

Whether the Tories’ election readiness and their high ranking in public opinion polls will be enough to unseat the ruling Liberals is a question that will be answered at the conclusion of what promises to be one of the closest and hard-fought elections in recent years.

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