Revisiting 1989 on election day

Peter Boswell | Oct. 21

The campaigning is over and voters in Newfoundland and Labrador will elect a new government today. Public opinion polls leading up to and during the election campaign have consistently and strongly favoured the opposition Progressive Conservative party and its leader Danny Williams. If the polls are correct, the province will see the first Progressive Conservative government in 14 years and only the third change in governing party since the province’s confederation with Canada in 1949.

The Liberals, under Joey Smallwood, governed the province from 1949 to 1972. With just over 60 percent of the vote, Frank Moores led the Progressive Conservatives to a clear victory in 1972 following an indecisive 1971 election which allowed Smallwood to cling to power even though he had fewer seats and less of the popular vote than the Tories.

Parallels between 2003 and 1989

The only other change in governing party occurred in 1989 shortly after Tom Rideout had won the Progressive Conservative leadership following the resignation of Brian Peckford as leader and premier. Although the Tories won slightly more of the popular vote than did the Liberals led by Clyde Wells (47.50% versus 47.05%), the Liberals were able to form a majority government and have been in power ever since.

While the 1971-72 elections were unique in that they signaled an end to the Smallwood era and the divisions surrounding confederation, there are some similarities between political conditions today and those in 1989, although the party roles are reversed.

Leadership tests

First, the leaders of the two major parties were facing their first elections as leaders. In 1989, Tom Rideout had just won his party’s leadership in a bitter and divisive convention. Clyde Wells had easily won leadership of the Liberals about 2 years prior to the election call and had spent the intervening time rebuilding the party at the grass roots level.

Roger Grimes, the current Liberal leader, narrowly won his position in a very divisive leadership convention in early 2001. Danny Williams was acclaimed leader of the Progressive Conservative party in June 2001 and has successfully reinvigorated riding associations across the province.

Second, the parties in power going into the elections suffered credibility and organizational problems. In 1989, Tom Rideout had to contend with a lot of undesirable baggage from the Brian Peckford era, including the infamous Sprung Greenhouse failure and Peckford’s increasingly arrogant and imperial attitudes. In addition, the bitter fall-out from the leadership convention left the Tory organization divided and weak.

Today, Roger Grimes has to contend with enduring deep wounds within the Liberal party from the leadership convention, a lingering public perception that a bad deal was reached with Inco on Voisey’s Bay, and a lasting cynicism and bitterness about Brian Tobin’s hasty departure to the federal level despite his 1999 campaign promise to fully serve out his term if re-elected.

Seeking 'royal jelly'

Third, although both Tom Rideout and Roger Grimes were good cabinet ministers and capable individuals in their own right, neither possesses the charisma, demeanour, or ‘royal jelly’ required of a premier. Both Rideout and Grimes were soundly beaten in the leaders’ debate by their main opponents, Clyde Wells and Danny Williams respectively.

Fourth, Clyde Wells and the opposition Liberals were ready to roll in 1989 as soon as the election was called, whereas the ruling Conservatives, who had called the election, were slow to get going and never did catch up with the Liberals. Similarly, Danny Williams and the Conservatives were well-organized and quick off the mark in the 2003 election, whereas the ruling Liberals seemed less prepared or well-organized.

The 'real' themes

A final similarity is the widespread feeling in the province that it is ‘time for a change.’ Clyde Wells’ 1989 campaign theme of “Time for a Real Change” is quite similar to Danny Williams’ 2003 campaign theme of “REAL Leadership: the New Approach.” Although 14 years in power is not an overly-lengthy period in the Canadian context, a wide-spread public perception that it’s time for a clean sweep can be a persuasive element in voters’ minds.

However, in this first real test for the current leaders of both major parties, there is one big difference to the 1989 situation. In 1989, pre-election public opinion polls showed Tories to be well in the lead – this was one of the reasons Rideout decided to call an election almost immediately. In 2003, the ruling Liberals have consistently been well below the opposition Conservatives for the past year – no doubt one of the reasons Roger Grimes delayed calling the election until he was almost out of time.

Compare to Ontario election

But Grimes claims he doesn’t believe either the polls or the political analysts who are predicting a Conservative victory. In fact, this past weekend, he was talking about the Liberals winning some 30 seats. In doing so, Grimes has adopted the head-in-the-sand attitude of recently-defeated Ontario premier Ernie Eves, who insisted right to the end that the polls and pundits were wrong and that his party was going to be returned with a majority government.

Whether Grimes will join Ernie Eves in the list of what the National Post described as “one-hit wonders – premiers who were elected not by the people, but by a dying party” will be decided later today.

In the meantime, some whimsical NDP supporters are predicting that their party will hold the balance of power in a minority government. In reality, it is unlikely that either the NDP or the tiny Labrador party will have much of an effect on the final outcome. The real battle, in a campaign which has seen Roger Grimes launch increasingly personal attacks on Danny Williams and some Conservative candidates, is between the Liberals and the Tories.

And, if the polls are right, it’s going to be a one-sided battle. Unless the Liberals get most of the fairly large ‘undecided’ vote or are the beneficiaries of divine intervention, they are headed for defeat.

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