This week will be highlighted by a few different things... here are a few points.

-Temperatures will warm up this week... and stay warm(ish). At or above seasonal temperatures will be on the menu for everyone.
-A system marching in from the Southwest today will draw this warm air in... but will also spread Clouds and Showers into Newfoundland for Tuesday and has already spread Snow into Labrador today and into tonight.
-The West Coast of Newfoundland and even into Central could see some Freezing Rain early tomorrow before the Southerly flow warms temps to 5 or 6 degrees.

***4PM UPDATE- Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Warning for Corner Brook, Deer Lake-Humber Valley and Green Bay-White Bay. Model showing a solid period of F.R. starting overnight and continuing throughout the early morning hours. The drive to work could be very icy for you folks in those areas.
-Although Warnings haven't been issued... I think Gros Morne, Parson's Pond-Hawke's Bay could see some Freezing Rain overnight and early tomorrow as well. Bay of Exploits, GFW and Gander could see some Freezing Rain tomorrow morning as well.

-Looks like the Avalon will stay dry on Tuesday as the High pressure moving off to the East will be still be strong enough to keep the Rain away.

LONG RANGE
-Another System will move in on Wednesday and into Thursday. It looks like it too, will have a strong Southerly flow with it, keeping the Precip as mostly Rain for Newfoundland.
-Having said that, the potential will be there again for Freezing Rain and Ice Pellets in the morning and overnight time periods.
-Labrador looks like Snow to start on Wednesday... but the warm air could push in for you folks as well... with a change over to Rain or at least a mix of both for Thursday and into Friday.

EVEN LONGER RANGE
-The models... specifically the GFS... are flirting with a set-up for the weekend... which would bring a very strong push of warm air into the Province just in time for Easter. The set-up... which is still a question mark... would see an area of High pressure anchored to the Southeast with a Low over Northern Quebec and Labrador. If things work out that way... we could see double digit temps creeping into parts of Newfoundland this weekend.

-It would be nice setup for the holiday weekend... let's keep our fingers crossed for now and I'll keep you posted.

Ryan

STORM CONTINUES FOR SOME

-Our Spring Storm continues to pound away on you folks on the in Eastern and Southeastern Labrador...
-Through today and into tonight another 10-15 cm of Snow could fall up through Mary's Harbour and up the Coast to Cartwright.
-Looks like 5-10 cm today for HV-GB and North of Gros Water Bay.
-Maybe more tomorrow for the North Coast depending on the track this thing takes.
-Winds will continue to gust to 70 or 80 km/h and so white out conditions will continue.

SNOW B-U-S-T

This was As Advertised from the very start "A Spring Storm"... but there's no doubt this system could have been much worse Snow wise across the Island. We did see some Snow up though Central and up the Northern Pen. However, some of the forecast models were showing as much as 20-25 cm in Central... and most of them were showing 40+ cm up the Northern Peninsula. And although I knew totals wouldn't be that high... I did think the cold air would hold on for more of a fight than it did.

But that's really been quite the common theme this winter hasn't it? Temperatures bumped up 1 or 2 degrees warmer than forecast and as a result we saw more Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain and Rain then anything else. Even up through the Northern Peninsula today... temperatures have bumped up ABOVE the freezing mark in many places. Some of you from Flowers Cove have been saying that not much Snow fell at all. Now the webcam in St. Anthony is showing some more Snowfall this afternoon... but Rain has been mixing in at times as well which is keeping totals down.

WEBCAM

I think it's Safe to say Spring has Officially and Unofficially arrived in Newfoundland. Old Man Winter has had another chance to get in there... and came up short again! (famous last words I'm sure... lol.)

Here are a few numbers from yesterday.

St. John's- 33.8 mm of Rain ( A New March 25th record)
St. Lawrence- 40 mm of Rain
Cape Race- 24 mm of Rain

Winds were very impressive from this Storm

Wreckhouse- 163 km/h
Port aux Basques- 119 km/h
Burgeo- 109 km/h
Argentia- 104 km/h
Twillingate- 96 km/h
Stephenville- 94 km/h

PEEK INTO THE LONG RANGE

-Most of us will see a taste of Sunshine tomorrow. An area of High pressure is going to sneak in from the South and clear things out overnight and into early tomorrow. However we'll see the Clouds building in late in the day from our next system building in from the Southwest.
-Thanks to the System rolling in... we'll see a solid Southwesterly flow.. that could bump temperatures to double digits in Newfoundland tomorrow!!!
-That system which is really more like a Cold front will cross the Labrador late Friday and Friday night and on Saturday across Newfoundland.
-On the Island it could drop a couple of wet cm's of Snow... especially in the East late Saturday.
-Things will be cooler in behind and will also start to clear again on Sunday.
-Early next week is looking pretty solid right now for most of the Province... although Western Labrador could see some Clouds and Flurries.

More details tonight on Here & Now.

Ryan

Again, instead of typing away for hours... the best way to get the most information quickly is by posting a video.

A Few Other Points.

-St. John's the Northern Avalon could see that extended period of Freezing Rain from 4 or 5 pm to 7 or 8 pm. Just in time for the drive home... So Be Careful out there.
-Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor and Central Regions will likely see the Snow changing to Ice Pellets and Freezing Rain AFTER 9 pm tonight.
-Corner Brook could see some Freezing Rain late this afternoon and early this evening.

More details on Here & Now Tonight.

See you then.

Ryan

Snow, Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain, Rain, Wind, High Seas & Pounding Surf... just another Spring Storm in Newfoundland and Labrador.

-This will be a Wednesday and into Thursday Storm for Newfoundland and a Thursday and into Friday Storm for Labrador.

-In Newfoundland... this is going to be a very messy system. Everyone South of the Northern Peninsula will see a Mix of everything. The Snow will start on Wednesday and then slowly transition to Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain later in the day and then to Rain by Thursday Morning. The change over will occur from South to North as the warm air pushes in.

-Along the South Coast Winds Driving in from the Southeast will mean high seas and pounding surf from Wednesday into Thursday.

-The West Coast of Newfoundland from Port aux Basques to Gros Morne is under a Wind Warning. East Winds will gust to 100 km/h along the Coast. Wind Warnings are in effect.

-The higher elevations in Gros Morne and then up through Parson's Pond, Hawke's Bay and up the Northern Peninsula to St. Anthony will likely stay cold enough for Snow and Blowing Snow.

-From Port au Choix to Englee and North through the Straits to Mary's Harbour... maybe even a tad bit further North... this is where the bulls eye could be for Snowfall. The forecast models are showing a decent 30+ cm in the latest runs. Maybe as much as 40 in some of the higher elevations. Winds will be really gusting as well. Winter Storm Watches are in effect.

-For most of Labrador this system will be a Thursday and Friday Storm... and will also be a Snow event.

-Cartwright and into Happy Valley Goose Bay and then up the Coast to Nain could top out at 25 cm by the time things are said and done on Friday night.

-Totals in Labrador City and Churchill Falls should be somewhere near 10-15 cm of Snow.

-I'll have a better time line for you tonight on Here & Now.

Ryan

I hope you had a great weekend. Enjoy the sunshine that's around today and Tuesday... because things will turn unsettled on Wednesday and could stay that way through next weekend.

A Few Points

-The actual track of this system has changed again since we last talked. It looks like now it's destined to track into the Gulf of St. Lawrence and then up into Eastern Labrador.
-That track will help wrap SOME warm air in from the Southeast... however it doesn't look like it will be enough to change everyone from Snow to Rain.
-The South Coast of Newfoundland could take a pretty good hit from this storm. A good shot of Snow to start and then some good onshore Rain to follow.
-Labrador will be a Mostly Snow event. We could see some light showers mixing in on Thursday through Eastern Labrador, especially along the Coast.
-Labrador could see upwards of 20 cm from this system.
-The big question mark with this Storm will be Newfoundland. Especially Central Newfoundland in terms of how far Northwest that mixing line will go. With that warm air invading from the Southeast... temperatures will start to rise and change the Snow to Rain... however just 1 to 2 degrees will be vital. This will be a tough forecast for Central Newfoundland for sure.

-Western Newfoundland and up the Northern Peninsula I think will see some Rain mixing in as well... however this will be a mostly Snow event for you as well. I think more than 15 cm is possible.
-St. John's, The Avalon and the Northeast Coast will see some Snow (maybe even 10+ cm) from this system when it moves in on Wednesday. However it looks like Rain will take over for most in the East late Wednesday into Thursday.
-During the transition from Snow to Rain... Freezing Rain is a possibility again with this system... especially Wednesday night in Eastern and Central Newfoundland.

I'll see you tonight on Here & Now.

Ryan

Well our system moving in next week still has plenty of question marks around it. The main issue is the actual track the system will take... which the models really can't seem to get a handle on.

-Gone seems to be the idea that system will track up through Quebec and Western Labrador. That would have drawn a ton of warm air in from the South bumping up temperatures.... maybe to double digits... with some rain as well. However the models have completely backed off on that theory.

-Now the thinking seems to be either a) A track right through Newfoundland b) A Track just East of Newfoundland or c) A track completely to the Southeast of the Island... missing us completely.

A or B.

This scenario would be messy. Some light Snow mixed with Rain coming in on Tuesday along the Warm front of this system before it backs right in on top of us on Wednesday and into Thursday.
As I mentioned yesterday the more Easterly track would allow Cold air to wrap in behind this system and help produce Snow.
If the GFS run you're looking at above came true... we would be looking a huge shot of Snow for Central and parts of Western Newfoundland.

C.

This would be the most popular pick for many of you I'm sure. The idea here is that the area of High pressure to the Northwest and into Labrador is strong enough to push the system far enough to the Southeast, that is almost completely misses us. We would still see some mixing along the Warm front on Tuesday... but the meat and potatoes would be off shore.

SO WHICH ONE?

So how uncertain are the forecast models right now?

-The GFS American model had the full on Newfoundland Storm idea in it's overnight run. Just 6 hours later it came out with the complete miss scenario. 2 completely different ideas.
-The Canadian model has been bringing the Storm into Newfoundland with on it's last 3 runs.
-The European has been consistently taking the system far enough to the Southeast for a miss.

The good news is... if this system does come in... it's not until Wednesday. So I'll be watching the models closely over the weekend. If I start to see some condenses... I'll drop you a quick line on my facebook and twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/ryan.snoddon
twitter.com/ryansnoddon

Either way, we'll be talking about this on Monday on Here & Now.
Have a great weekend.

Ryan

I'm running short on time today... but I just wanted to show you this...

This is the latest GFS model run... for next Wednesday. A completely different idea than the GFS model run I showed you yesterday. The model is really backing off on the strength of the Ridge of High Pressure in the Atlantic. As a result, our system would be allowed to come much further East. Yesterday the track was through Western Labrador... which would bring a southerly flow of nice warm air into the Province. However, this further East track would allow colder air to sink into Labrador and wrap into the backside of the system producing a decent shot of... S-N-O-W for some.

The latest GFS and European have also shifted their thinking on this one... whether it's a temporary shift or permanent shift... still remains to be seen.

I'll update you on this tomorrow.

Ryan

I thought I would make use of the Flip Camera again today to give you a taste of what's coming up over the next 7-10 days.

POINTS
-Weak system passing through today and tomorrow will drop some flurries in Labrador... and a solid shower/flurry mix in Newfoundland on Thursday.
-Things will clear a little bit on Friday... but I think the Cloud cover will likely dominate this weekend across most of Province.
-Early to mid next week a system will be moving in from the South.
-It appears Western Labrador could see some Snowfall from this with perhaps a mix through Eastern Labrador.
-Newfoundland looks destined to see Rain from this one.

ANOTHER AWESOME SHOT
I'll leave you with another snap from Nasa's Modis Satellite.

-This was taken yesterday. You can clearly see the Cold front moving Southeastward across the Labrador Sea and just licking Northern Newfoundland.
-A great shot of Coastal Labrador. You can clearly see the ice breaking up in Groswater Bay and the ice breaking away from the Southeast Coast.
-As I mentioned in the pictures on Monday, the Snow melt along the Humber River and even in through Stephenville can also be seen.
-SUPER HIGH RES. VERSION: If you want to see a really zoomed in shot... click here.

Ryan

I hope you folks enjoyed the weekend. It was a great one... especially Sunday. Labrador City was the warmest spot in Province at 9.1 degrees!!! Happy Valley-Goose Bay hit 8.1, which was officially a new record. Here are some of the other Sunday temps...

Labrador City: 9.1
Badger: 8.4
Goose Bay: 8.1
Mary's Harbour: 7.9
Rocky Harbour: 7.9
Terra Nova: 7.8
Gander: 7.8
Deer Lake: 7.1

Another really nice one today AWAY from the Northeast Coast which has a Northerly flow setup again. Western Newfoundland could see 5 or 6 degrees again today as well as Happy Valley-Goose Bay. However the warmest spot in the Province will once again be Labrador City, where double digits are possible later this afternoon.

COLD FRONT APPROCHES

There is a cold front moving through Northern Quebec today and that will slice into Labrador tonight/tomorrow and then into Newfoundland on Wednesday. That front will drop temperatures back to Normal and bring some flurries in as well. More details on that, tonight on Here & Now.

A Picture Is Worth 1000 Words

It's the old saying... and really it proves true when you're looking at the Satellite Pictures below.
It's been awhile since we've had clear enough days to view our Province from space... but Saturday and Sunday we're perfect. These images are courtesy of NASA's MODIS Satellite.

SATURDAY

-Eastern Newfoundland was a bit cloudy on Saturday but what a view of the Western half of the Island and up the Northern Peninsula. You can clearly see the lack of Ice in Gulf and up through the Strait. There is a bit... but not much up along the Southeast Coast of Labrador up to Black Tickle. From there it does appear to thicken up a bit to the North... but the Cloud cover mixing in makes it tough to see.

SUNDAY

-A much better image of Southern Newfoundland. You can clearly see where the Snow cover had retreated along the Coast around the Southern half of the Avalon. Another great shot of the Bay of Exploits where again, I'm not seeing much ice at all. A bit of Snow retreat along the South Coast... but not much through Central yet.
The other spot where you can see the Snow has started to melt... is along the Humber River North of Deer Lake through the Humber Valley.

Gulf of St. Lawrence

This image was taken on Sunday as well. Again, you can clearly see no ice in the Gulf and even down into the St. Lawrence River.

See you tonight on Here & Now.

Ryan

If there's one thing we know about the Weather in Newfoundland and Labrador... it's that it's always changing.
I know many of you check out the blog on a regular basis during the day or even on the weekends to find out the latest on a big storm moving in or last minute changes to the forecast... and so I do my best to update it as often as I can. However, I'm trying to make it even easier for you to get quick updates on the latest Weather situation.

TWITTER
As some of you already know I've joined Twitter. Which allows me to quickly drop you a line about changing weather... or what I'll have on the show tonight. It's a very cool tool.
twitter.com/ryansnoddon

FACEBOOK
And so I wanted to let you know that I've also finally joined this thing they call "Facebook". Hahaha. Yes I know facebook has been around forever... I should have joined years ago. Using facebook, you'll be able to post weather pictures on my wall, post messages on my wall about what the weather is doing in your backyard and we'll be better able to stay connected. This is a big Province with a 1000 micro-climates so the more I hear from you, the better. I'll also be able to send out status updates when there are big weather events happening.

So what are you waiting for... be my friend on facebook!!!!
http://www.facebook.com/ryan.snoddon

WEEKEND WEATHER

Alright on to the weather... and it's looking pretty good for the weekend. We'll have a few more clouds and flurries kicking around for Friday, however things will improve from there. An area of High pressure over Northern Quebec is slowly sinking Southeast and will move over the Province as we move into the weekend.

-That high will help block a system moving into Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes and keep Newfoundland and Labrador in a nice Mix of Sun and Cloud.
-Temperatures will warm throughout the weekend as well. As our high moves to the Southeast of Newfoundland on Sunday we should start to see a weak Southwesterly flow.
-It's a little early to talk about actual temps right now, however it appears 3 or 4 degrees could be on the menu for a good portion of the Province. Maybe even warmer in some spots!

Talk to ya soon,
Ryan

Although they still have a few more numbers to crunch... Environment Canada is already saying... this has been the Warmest and Driest Winter in Canada since record keeping began.

Environment Canada's Senior Climatologist David Phillips says on average from Coast to Coast to Coast, from December through February, average temperatures reached an record high while precipitation levels dropped to a record low. EC's weather data goes back 63 years.

Here's a look at a graphic the CBC Weather Centre in Toronto has put together this morning.

You can see where most of the above average warmth was felt from Dec-Feb, through the North and into Quebec and Labrador. It's not really surprising to any of us in this Province, given the fact we've been talking about the crazy temperatures in Labrador since November.

NO SEA ICE

As we talked about a few weeks ago, all this warm weather has had massive impacts on the sea ice. From the Gulf to the North Atlantic to the Labrador Sea, officials are saying they haven't seen conditions like this in over 70 years.

Here are the latest ice charts.

You can see the big time lack of Ice in the Gulf...

And around the Island...

Up the Coast of Labrador there is some ice along the Coast... but not much into the Labrador Sea.

This graphic may show it best... the Departure from Normal Ice Map.

It's little wonder the Seal Hunt is in jeopardy this year.

Ryan

I posed this question last night on Here & Now... Do you think this past weekend storm was Sheila's Brush? I know, I know, it's only March 9th... but here are a few facts for you.

1) Sheila's Brush is of course the big Winter Storm that hits Eastern Newfoundland every year around St. Patrick's Day. The Storm is usually considered that last big one of the Winter.

2) St. Patrick's Day is next just around the corner... next Wednesday the 17th.

3) This has been a CRAZY winter with a lack of Snow and Warm temperatures.

PAST 5 YEARS

Here's a look at the Past 5 Years and when Sheila's Brush moved in.

2009- March 21st. 28 cm in St. John's and Gander had 24 cm.

2008- March 17-19th. St. John's had 58 cm of Snow! Gander had 57 cm of Snow. Gander also got hit just days before 64 cm of Snow on the 13th and 14th... so it was a double whammy.

2007- March 29th-30th. Gander gets 20 cm while St. John's only gets less than 5. However St. John's had 14 cm just a few days earlier. You have to go all the way back to Feb 23-24th to find a Big Snowfall for St. John's in the weird year of 07.

2006- March 27-29th. St. John's sees 32 cm of Snow. Gander lands 27 cm.

2005- March 30-31st. St. John's gets 18 cm of Snow and 60 mm of Rain. Gander gets 63 cm!!!

So there's no doubt the numbers show, this past weekend storm was WAY too early to be Sheila. But again you never know. This winter has been one of the warmest we've seen in decades... it will be really interesting to see how it all plays out. Especially considering we do appear to have something brewing for early next week.

NEXT WEEK SYSTEM

A quick update on our potential (Sheila) system for early next week.

-The Canadian model is still bringing the system in on late Sunday and into Monday. It's taking the centre of the system waaayyy to the West and wrapping nothing but warm air and rain into Newfoundland and even Southeastern Labrador.
-The American model continues to do the cha cha cha. It was showing a miss early yesterday, then it brought it back West... now it's somewhere in between. Still with the Tuesday idea.
-The European is thinking Tuesday as well and has an interesting track... just East of the Island.

Again, I'll keep you updated.

Ryan

The 45 mm of Rain that fell on the 1st got us started... and the 118 mm of Rain from our weekend storm more than sealed the deal. This month St. John's has already seen 180.6 mm of Rain at the Airport.

Looking back to when record keeping began in 1942... the Rainiest March title was being held by the March of 1983 when 168.2 mm of Rain fell. So we're already well passed that with still 23 days to go.

By the way.. the normal March rainfall in St. John's is 76.7 mm.

More Records Fall

-The St. John's March 5th Daily Rainfall Record was 23 mm... the 71 mm on Friday shattered that.
-In fact the 71 mm of Rain on Friday also broke the single day rainfall record for all of March. The previous record was 67.5 mm on March 11th 1994.
-Gander's 37 cm of Snow on Friday also broke the March 5th record of 24.4 cm which fell in 1960.

More Storm Stats On The Blog Entry Below.

Ryan

Well, as advertised that was quite a Storm that pounded the Island of Newfoundland on Friday and Saturday.

More than 120 mm of Rain in the East... 35-50+ cm of Snow along the Northeast Coast and of course the crippling Freezing Rain in Conception Bay North and all along the Bonavista Peninsula. Winds were clocked at more than 120 km/h along the South Coast and more than 90 km/h along the Northeast Coast.

Here are some more numbers from Environment Canada.

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED AT
SELECTED SITES AS OF 8:00 AM SUNDAY...

GANDER INT'L'AIRPORT ........ 52.0 CM
TERRA NOVA .................. 22.0 CM *
LEWISPORTE .................. 35.0 CM *

* UNOFFICIAL AMOUNTS FROM WEATHER WATCHERS.

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED AT
SELECTED SITES AS OF 8:00 AM SUNDAY...

ST. JOHNS AIRPORT ........... 118 MM
MEMORIAL UNIVERSITY ......... 126 MM
BONAVISTA ................... 34 MM *

* COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF SIGNIFICANT PEAK WIND GUSTS OBSERVED AT
SELECTED SITES AS OF 8:00 AM SUNDAY...

TWILLINGATE ................... 91 KM/HR
GRATES COVE ................... 95 KM/HR
SAGONA ISLAND ............... 122 KM/HR
BURGEO....................... 115 KM/HR
ARGENTIA .................... 85 KM/HR
ST. JOHN'S INT'L'AIRPORT .... 63 KM/HR
ST. LAWRENCE ................ 93 KM/HR
WINTERLAND .................. 80 KM/HR
CAPE RACE ................... 107 KM/HR

Just a massive Storm. Of course the power outages along the Bonavista Peninsula and in Conception Bay North continue today and for the latest on that situation check out cbc.ca/nl and of course Here & Now tonight.

CALMER WEEK

-The good news is, this week will be much quieter across the Province. We'll be dealing with a few flurries off and on over the next few days... and perhaps some sun later this week as an area of High Pressure tries to edge it's way in.
-The next potential bigger sized system could be in the cards for late this weekend or early next week. The Canadian model likes the idea of a late Sunday early Monday arrival. The European is perhaps later Monday into Tuesday, while the American GFS is stronger with the area of High pressure moving in. If it's got the right idea, that High would keep the system blocked to the South and then send it East out to the Atlantic.
-I'll keep you posted on this one.

TALK TONIGHT

-Finally, I just wanted to let you know I'm going to be doing a presentation at the Marine Institute in St. John's tonight. It's all part of MUN's Geographic Information Systems day. I'll be talking about trying to forecast the weather here in Newfoundland and Labrador and the grey hairs that go along with it!!! haha.

It's taking place in Hampton Hall at the Marine Institute on Ridge Road tonight (Monday) at 8pm. Admission is free.

Ryan

A Few Points
-As I mentioned tonight, MUN weather station is reporting 60+ mm as of 4:30 this afternoon. St. John's airport reporting 40 mm as of 2:30 pm. So totals could be close to 70 or 80 mm in some places by Saturday evening.
-St. John's and the Northern Avalon has been included in the Freezing Rain Warning for Northern sections and higher elevations overnight and early tomorrow.
-Gander is reporting 17 cm as of 4:30 pm... so 30-40 cm there is likely there.
-Grand Falls-Windsor and Bay of Exploits have been included in the Snowfall Warning.

Have a good weekend!

Ryan