CBC Newfoundland & Labrador

NORTHEAST FRIDAY SNOW

Hey Folks,

Only in Newfoundland can the forecast change from 10-20 cm... to 20-40 cm in 12 hours!!!!

If you've been following the blog this week you know I've been watching a system brewing up in the Gulf of Mexico since Monday. This system of course was forecast to track pretty much East of Newfoundland Friday and into Saturday. Although the models have had trouble with the forecast track on this one... they have been pretty consistent with the track remaining well offshore. That is until 12 hours ago. Here's the time line.

YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
As I mentioned yesterday here on the blog and last night on the show... 10 cm... with perhaps as much as 15 cm was a pretty good bet for St. John's and the Northeast Coast of Newfoundland. Both the American and Canadian models were in pretty good agreement.

YESTERDAY EVENING
As always, before I hit the hay I checked out the latest forecast model runs... and wasn't totally surprised to see the 15-20 cm zone trending a bit further West on the Canadian model. The American model was holding strong around 10-15 cm.

OVERNIGHT & THIS MORNING
They continued their trend West... especially the Canadian in the latest early morning model run.
-The Canadian GEM model has now jumped to over 40 cm of Snow for St. John's and The Northern Avalon. 30-40 up the Northeast Coast through Bonavista, Terra Nova and up the Northeast Coast.
-The American model is a bit more conservative with 15-25 along the Northeast Coast... with heavier amounts again towards Bonavista and the Northern Avalon and Metro St. John's. 25-30 cm.

So given the fact that the forecast models have been going nutty over the past 12 hours... I think it's too soon to jump up and down and make Snowfall forecast map right now. I want to see some consistency in the models first. I'm already starting to see that in the American model in it's last 2.

I'll have a look at the afternoon model runs and post a Snowfall map later this afternoon. Either way Friday and Friday night look Snowy and Windy for St. John's the Avalon up the Northeast Coast to the Bay of Exploits.

Of course more details on Here & Now.

Ryan

Your Comments

Wow! Hopefully this system brings some snow for our skidooers, snowshoers, and skiers!

Just wanted to say what a fantastic job Ryan is doing. It's so nice to have someone with so much technical knowledge and a great personality! I just love the additional information the blog provides.

I think we should all give credit where credit is due!!

Thanks again for all your extra work,
Georgette

Posted by: Georgette on February 4, 2010 10:59 AM

Please bring it on. Lots of
snowmobile mods this year I'm
desperate to test before heading to
the west coast for some real riding.

Posted by: bagadonitz on February 4, 2010 12:40 PM

12Z gem and NAM are saying 40+, GFS is saying 25cm, maybe a little bit more. In my experience the GFS is usually a little light on snow amounts while the NAM is usually heavy, it seems to read snowfall as rain for precip rates. GEM regional is in the same area though so I am not sure if the NAm is overdone this timew. Either way since the winds will be up a pretty big storm. Everyone on the northeast coast will get hit hard, from St. John's to Twillingate. Bonavista will probably see massive wind gusts out of this one. Why environment canada doesn't have warnings up yet I don't know.

Posted by: Maxwell Little on February 4, 2010 12:49 PM

your the man, keep up the good work!

Thanks,

Jordan

Posted by: Jordan on February 4, 2010 01:03 PM

Hey Ryan,

Im sooo happy to hear that we may have our first BIG snowfall for the year. All the snow lovers will be VERY happy. We have to keep our fingers crossed.

Also, I have to say Ryan you do an awesome job with the weather. You are so upbeat and fun to watch, I look forward to watching you every night. Your blog rocks too, love the extra info you provide.

Keep up the good work(:

Posted by: Ms. Blair Brush on February 4, 2010 01:07 PM

Thanks for the update Ryan, keep up the great work!

Posted by: Gaylynne Lambert on February 4, 2010 01:09 PM

I am flying out early tomorrow morning. Any idea what time this is supposed to start?

Posted by: Meghan Lamb on February 4, 2010 03:44 PM

I did my snow dance after coffee break this morning, it was for a snow day tomorrow.....hope it worked !!! :)

Posted by: Elaine on February 4, 2010 04:33 PM

hey i was listening to you on tv and i just love hears you say snow because here and the labrador side we have a little but of snow its not enough fer to go ib ski doo or do anything it really sucks. bye

Posted by: Felicia Letto on February 5, 2010 06:47 PM

Hi Ryan,

I would love to know how much snow we ACTUALLY had in St. John's this weekend! Looking forward to an update!

Posted by: Andrea on February 8, 2010 12:00 PM

Ryan:

We are getting drenched here in Rigolet, Labrador. Unofficially, we have received over 116mm of rain since Friday, February 12th. All roads in the community are like skating rinks.Extremely slippery conditions. Our snow is disappearing quickly. When will the poor weather end?

Posted by: gcox on February 14, 2010 10:18 AM

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