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BACK TO OUR WARM PATTERN

Hey Folks,

Well there's no doubt in the past week or so, we've dropped back into our Warm Winter Pattern.

The first week of February was FROSTY. In fact, most of the Province was experiencing colder than normal temperatures for the first 5 or 6 days. And then, our big storm came in and old man winter flipped the switch off.

The past week or so has been CRAZY Warm across the Province... especially in Eastern Labrador. Look at Cartwright over the past 8 days. The Average Day Time High has been 2.0 degrees and 92 mm of Rain has fallen!!!! You typically see temperature high's of -9.2 degrees and only 4 mm of Rain in February. Unbelievable.

GCox wrote into the blog yesterday reporting... "We are getting drenched here in Rigolet, Labrador. Unofficially, we have received over 116mm of rain since Friday, February 12th. All roads in the community are like skating rinks. Extremely slippery conditions. Our snow is disappearing quickly."

The questions have been pouring into the Here & Now mailbox over the past few days. "Ryan, what's up with this crazy weather?" or "Ryan, why are Low's tracking East to West?" "What has happened to Winter?"

Well, In case you missed my blog entry from January 13th you can check it out here.

I explained how the overall pattern this Winter is being influenced by something called the NAO, which for the most part, has been in a negative pattern this winter. When that negative pattern happens, pressure in the Upper Levels of the atmosphere over the Arctic Region is HIGHER than normal. That Higher pressure has been acting as a BLOCK so to speak. It's just not allowing any Low's which track into our Province to continue on and out into the Atlantic. Instead they've been spinning around and around an upper level Low which has almost been a constant feature over Central Quebec.

Jan1310.jpg

Hence why we've been seeing so many Low's track from East back to the West!!!

The NAO is in a big time Negative Pattern right now and is forecast to be (area in red) right through the end of the month. Indeed even in the forecast models are showing that the next 7-10 days are looking like the same old same old Warm Winter pattern we've been seeing.

NAO-Feb1510.bmp

And of course by then, we'll be into March.

Ryan

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