HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION.

As of this afternoon the models remain at odds about how strong this system will be and as a result, how much Snow will actually fall across Eastern Newfoundland on Saturday.

Here's what we know for sure.

-The Snow will be falling and really blowing hard on Saturday... mainly across the Avalon. However I think folks as far West as Gander, and the Coast of Bays will see some Light Snow Blowing around as well.
-No matter what the track, the winds will be strong... first in from the Northeast... then the Northwest... then the West. Gusts up to 100 km/h are certainly on the menu.
-We're looking at a mid morning or Noon arrival on Saturday... and this thing should be done with us by Sunday morning.

I just wanted to give you a quick look at what the models are showing as of this afternoon...

EUROPEAN

This model is by far showing the strongest storm...and it's been consistently strong all week... which is why I haven't given up on a 20-30 cm storm for the Avalon. The track has varied a bit, which will obviously a key factor. Right now I think it's too far West.

GFS-AMERICAN

The GFS really backed off and moved East with the Storm over the past 24 hours... however as I expected it would... it has now moved back West again on the latest afternoon run above. This would be a moderate shot of Snow.

GEM-CANADIAN
I learned my lesson the hard way last winter. The GEM model seems to like to trend South and East with a Coastal Storm like this... say 60 to 48 hours before it hits. As we get closer to the day... say in the next 24 hours... I'm expecting it to trend back West again. The latest afternoon run did come back West a bit... but I think it's still a little too far East. Tomorrow will be key.

OVERALL
Again it's only Thursday... but right now I'm leaning towards a solid 10-20 cm for the Avalon on Saturday and into Saturday night.
However the next 24 hours will obviously be critical in the forecast and will ultimately decide whether you have to fire up that Snow blower or you can just shovel.

Ryan