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FRIDAY SYSTEM... HIT OR MISS?

Hey Folks,

As I mentioned on Here & Now last night, I'm watching a brewing system coming out of the Rockies in the U.S. This one system will actually split into 2 different Low's... both of which could end up hitting us with Rain...Wind and no doubt some Snow mixing in as well. Lucky us!

Ok, first things first.... the Friday system.

-Even this morning the American GFS model has jumped on board with the idea that this thing probably won't hit us full on. So there's pretty good agreement now that this thing will cut to the South of Newfoundland. The question is how far South?
-The Canadian model is taking it far enough South that we wouldn't be seeing much of anything... just a few showers maybe a flurry or two.
-The American model is really hugging the South Coast with the track. It's also showing a stronger system, which would pull more cooler air and no doubt mix more Snow in with the Rain.

Oct21.bmp

-A few hundred kilometres will make a huge difference in the forecast with this one... so stay tuned.

SUNDAY SYSTEM

The second piece of energy from our U.S. Rockies system will brew up into a much larger and stronger system. It will roll into the Great Lakes on Friday night/Saturday... into the Maritimes on Saturday night/Sunday and then into Newfoundland and Labrador for Sunday and into Monday.

-There are still a few different ideas on this "could be storm"... including of course, how strong this system will be.
-In fact, the Canadian model is jumping on a very interesting idea this morning. It's showing a Coastal Storm developing along the front of the original system, as it hits the Coast of New England. Of course the Coastal Storm then follows the original front North into Newfoundland. That of course would make things a bit more interesting... and wet and windy.

I'll keep ya posted.

Ryan

Your Comments

Hello Ryan,
I generally watch you weather report nightly. However, I have a major peeve! I live on the Burin Peninsula and resent being lumped in with EASTERN long range forecasts. I know what difference there is between Avalon north(in particular ST. John's area) and our area , weather wise. A prime example is this past few says. Drizzle, drizzle cold, miserable that way but out here(Marystown in particular) generally fair to good days , with sunny breaks and none of the showers that are always mentioned. We do get miserable weather at times but it is not reported accurately tied in to actuals. This gives this area an unnecessary black eye from time to time which is very unfair. There is still much life beyond the overpass!
Breakdown in areas for long range should simply be, eastern, southern, western and northern as well Labrador areas.
You appear to be a sincere person, so I am hoping consideration will be given to my comments,
Thanks so much.
R. Fewer

Posted by: Roland Fewer on October 21, 2009 07:00 PM

What happened to that seasonal forecast back in early September that called for above average temperatures and below average rainfall for September, October, and November? I'd love to see some analysis about why Environment Canada got it so wrong.

Can't decide whether I'm rotting or rusting in this weather.

Posted by: Jeff Parsons on October 22, 2009 09:35 AM

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