Hey Folks,

As I mentioned here on the blog yesterday, I'm watching this system along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard very closely. It's dropping up to 5 or 6 inches of rain in some places in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Now all week long, the models have been flip flopping back and forth with the track and intensity of this system as it heads Northeast towards Newfoundland. However in the last 48 hours, the American GFS system has really been coming around and has been more consistent. While, the Canadian model has still been all over the map, it can't seem to decide how strong the system will be or where the track will go.

The reason I'm watching this system so closely is because even when it moves up into our neck of the woods, the bulls eye with this system could still be capable of dropping more than 50 mm of rain. In fact, the Canadian model is showing a bulls eye of 80-100 mm! However it's looking more and more like that bulls eye will be OFF shore.

Here's the latest Friday afternoon forecast model runs....

GFS-American Model

Again it has been the most consistent of the two and I like the afternoon run here. It's bringing a good decent 20-40 mm shot of rain into Central and Eastern Newfoundland.

I think Winds will really be gusty in the East. 50 to 70 km/h gusts are certainly possible. The American model also likes a good band of rain wrapping around the Northwest side of the system through Eastern Labrador. So I think you folks could see a good 20 mm shot on Monday as well.

GEM-Canadian Model

Despite it's inconsistency from run to run... I like this afternoon model run solution. It's going more towards the American model idea... with a decent 20-40 mm shot for anywhere East of Grand Falls-Windsor. Some areas on the Southeast Coast could top out around 40 to 50 mm based on this idea.

Remember this system is still 60 hours out... so a lot can happen.

Either way, have a great weekend and be prepared for a wet start to next week!

Ryan