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SATURDAY AFT. DANNY UPDATE

Hey Folks,

Happy Saturday. If you haven't already heard, Danny has been downgraded to a Post Tropical Storm as of 3:30 NT this afternoon. The Canadian Hurricane Centre says Danny finished his transition to Post Tropical later this morning. And you can see based on the Satellite shot, Danny is looking pretty unorganized indeed.

Danny-Aug29.JPG

That said, Danny still has sustained winds of 74 km/h... so he's got some punch left in him yet.

The National Hurricane Centre has stopped monitoring Danny as of early this morning. 1. Because he has made the transition to post tropical and 2. because he's no longer a threat to the U.S. However the Canadian Hurricane Centre is still all over this storm and they've released their current forecast track which brings Danny along almost the exact same path that Bill took.

DannyTrack-Aug29.png

He'll move into Nova Scotia early on Sunday and he'll be parked right over Cape Breton around 9am. The current time line brings Danny into Newfoundland near Hermitage Bay around 3-4 pm... again as a Post Tropical Storm.

Now, just because Danny is a Post Tropical Storm doesn't mean he's going to just breeze through here. In fact, Southern Newfoundland is going to get a pretty good smack from Danny with Heavy rains and lots of Wind.

Here's a look at the Current Warnings.

RAINFALL WARNING FOR> Port aux Basques-Burgeo, St. Georges, Ramea-Connaigre & the Burin Peninsula. These are all areas where Environment Canada is seeing the potential for 50 mm+
RWarning-Aug29.JPG

WIND WARNING FOR> St. Georges. Particularly the Wreckhouse area where gusts will be over 100 km/h per hour.
WWarning-Aug29.JPG

Updated Warnings can be found at Environment Canada here.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS

Ok, so with Environment Canada's warnings in mind, I want to show you a couple of forecast models to show you where else we could see some decent rains.

This is the Canadian forecast model GEM afternoon run. Again you can see that bulls eye along the South Coast and even pushing up into the Clarenville and Southern Trinity Bay areas. Pretty much everyone else South of the Baie Verte Peninsula and Corner Brook areas are in that 20-40 mm zone.
GEMTotals-Aug29.JPG

In it's latest run this afternoon, the GFS American model brought the pulse of heavy rain Eastward into the Bonavista and Western Avalon regions. Here's a look at what it's thinking. 3-4 inches (75-100 mm) of rain for Southwestern sections!! I do think it's waaaaayyy too heavy on it... but wanted to show you one of the extreme thoughts.
GFS-Aug29.bmp

The NAM model, European model, UKMET model and many more... all have different ideas as well, but I won't bore you with all of them here.

So I've looked at them all this afternoon, and here's what I think we're looking at for Sunday.

Rainfall-Aug29.JPG

WINDS

Well obviously with the Wind Warnings for Southwestern Newfoundland you can guess where we're going to be seeing the strongest winds, with gusts over 100 km/h. I'm also thinking along the South Coast from Port Aux Basques to the Burin winds will be 50 km/h with gusts close to 70 km/h, perhaps even 80 km/h.
The rest of the Island is going to be seeing 40-60 km/h in the Southeast and 30-50 in Central and towards the West Coast.

Enjoy the Storm folks,

See ya Monday at 5:30 for the start of Early Edition, as Here & Now goes 90 minutes!

Ryan

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