Hey Folks,

Here's is the latest Satellite shot from Hurricane Bill. Now a Category 4 Hurricane with sustained winds of 215 km/h!

The latest forecast track has just been released... and it's actually just a touch to the West from yesterday. As you can see Sunday night clipping Nova Scotia and then Monday morning arriving in Newfoundland. The latest forecast models have the storm sustaining it's Category One strength during landfall with the Island.

Although, according to the National Hurricane Centre, by Monday morning Bill has.... a 22% chance of being a Category One Hurricane and a 43% chance of being a Tropical Storm. Again, he's still a heck of a long way out so time will tell.

STEERING WINDS

Yesterday I took a minute to talk about Ocean water temperatures, which again could have an impact on Bill sustaining it's Category One strength. Today, I wanted to talk briefly about the forecast track. Over the past 3 or 4 days, there really hasn't been too much change in the forecast track... with Bill moving up along the Eastern seaboard and into our backyard. And as we get closer and closer to the day... I think the track has a better and better chance of holding. Here's why.

Above is a shot of the GFS forecast model... showing the upper level winds (500mb) or about 6000 metres above our heads. This is a great model for showing and predicting the overall weather pattern. You can see Bill sticking out like a sore thumb in the Atlantic. But I want to draw your attention to that big trough, or big dip, moving in over Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. That trough will actually draw Bill in closer to the Eastern Seaboard and direct him North.
The other steering factor is that Huge area of High pressure to the East of Bill in the Atlantic. As it spins Clockwise, it's also going to help spin Bill right up the alley between the trough and High.

More on Here & Now tonight... and tomorrow here on the blog.

Ryan