Hey Folks,

Hurricane Bill is now a Category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds of 165 km/h and gusts even stronger than that.

You can now see a nice eye wall which has developed over the past 24 hours indicating that Bill is strengthening nicely.

The forecast track of Bill hasn't changed too much over the past day or so. The forecast models are still running Bill around the High parked in the Centre of the Atlantic and then up towards the Northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada.
Here's a look at the forecast track as of this Sunday at 1pm.

Again, a lot can change when we're this early in the game. However, the threat of a Tropical Storm or Depression Bill moving into Newfoundland sometime late Sunday through Monday or Tuesday is still very much there.

OCEAN TEMPERATURES

Here's a quick fact for you about Ocean temperatures and Hurricanes. For a Hurricane to grow or sustain it's strength it needs to feed on ocean water that is AT LEAST 28 degrees... or 82 Fahrenheit. Once is passes into cooler water than that, it will start to weaken. The cooler the water... the faster it will die.

Here's the interesting part.
Everyone has been talking about the great summer we have had in Newfoundland. So warm and bright. And the proof is in the Ocean temperatures around and particularly South of the Island.

If those temperatures are looking a little warm to you... it's because they are. The graphic below is from the National Weather Service in the U.S. It shows Ocean Surface Temperature Anomaly... or Ocean temps compared to normal.

Take a look South of Newfoundland where temperatures are 1 to 2 degrees above normal. You may not think that's much, however it could be a factor.

If a weakening Bill moves into this water, it certainly wouldn't be anywhere close to sustaining the storm. But Bill wouldn't lose it's strength quite as fast as similar storms in past years.

As always, I'll be watching this closely over the next few days as the track of Bill becomes more clear.

Ryan