Hey folks,

Checking out the observations from last night... it looks like that Snow changed over to Rain MUCH MUCH earlier than expected for you folks along the West Coast who were under the Snowfall Warning. The warm air wrapped in pretty quickly and at the Deer Lake airport the change over from Snow to Freezing Rain happened around 2:30am. The models were showing nothing but Snow until around 6 or 7am. As a result, the 15 cm expected for many of you... became about half of that.
The Rainfall certainly didn't disapoint for you folks along the South Coast. One of my Weather spies down there in St. Alban's recorded 54 mm of Rain from yesterday afternoon through this morning. That was certainly the bull's-eye for precip.
Here's a summary from Environment Canada this morning.

The following is a summary of some of the actual reported precipitation totals and maximum wind gusts as of 8.30 AM NST today.

Precipitation totals ---------------------------
St John's airport .... 15 mm (rain)
Argentia ............. 17 mm (rain)
Winterland ........... 27 mm (rain)
St. Lawrence ......... 20 mm (rain)
Gander ............... 3 cm (snow) 13 mm (rain/freezing rain)
Deer Lake............. 7 cm (snow) 4 mm (rain/freezing rain)
Stephenville ......... 7 cm (snow) 0.5 mm (rain/freezing rain)
St. Anthony airport .. 9 cm (snow)

Maximum wind gusts ------------------------------
Wreckhouse .......... 133 km/h
Sagona Island ....... 122 km/h
Port-aux basques .... 102 km/h
St. Lawrence ........ 102 km/h
Winterland .......... 98 km/h
Bonavista ........... 87 km/h
Argentia ............ 85 km/h

So, just like that and we're on to the next one. And remember yesterday I was talking about the track of this system is going to be very key. 100-200 km's East or West could be a huge difference in the forecast for you folks living along the Avalon. Here's what I mean.
Yesterday Morning- The Low was forecast to track up along the Burin Peninsula into Placentia Bay and the North through Trinity Bay. This would bring Snow then Rain to the Avalon.
Yesterday Afternoon- The model was bringing the Centre of the Low 150 km/h further West... right up along the Southern Shore. Keeping most of the Avalon as Snow for most of day... with perhaps a little bit of late day drizzle.

So how about this morning's run?
Looks like the Centre of the Low is now forecast to track right smack in the middle of the two runs yesterday. St. Mary's Bay, across the Avalon and then up through Conception Bay seems to be the track now.

The American model seems to have the exact same track... so I think St. John's and the Avalon are indeed going to see an afternoon change over to rain... after about 5 maybe 10 cm of Snow.
However, the Burin Peninsula, the Bonavista Peninsula, Terra Nova & Gander you folks could be in for a decent 15-20 maybe even 25 cm shot of Snow tomorrow. Even Grand Falls Windsor and the Bay of Exploits could see a decent shot.

However, I'd like to see the afternoon model run before we say for sure.

Full details tonight on Here & Now.

Ryan