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New Years Day Storm

Hey folks,

I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas and Holiday Season. We've got lots to talk about so I'll get right to it.

FREEZING DRIZZLE WARNING IN EFFECT
Gander and vicinity
Bonavista North
Bay of Exploits
Green Bay - White Bay
Grand Falls-Windsor and vicinity.
Northern Peninsula East.

Winds are in from the North and that Cool moist flow is producing some Freezing Drizzle and Light Snow from St. Anthony to St. John's. The East side of the Northern Pen. and over to Gambo are the areas that will see the most Freezing Drizzle over the next 24 hours or so. If you are headed out and about leave yourself lots of extra time.

Alright, onto the system working in for New Year's Day. Lots of Snow Lovers here in St. John's are looking for some snow... and New Year's Day maybe the day. However, there are still some uncertainties in the forecast.
This system is just now making it's way through the Great Lakes. It will continue to track East where it will hit the Atlantic andl blow up into a decent sized system. As it continues to track Northeast tomorrow and tomorrow evening we'll start to see some increasing clouds across the Island. The exact track of the system is still a little up in the air.

GFS Model- This model has been consistantly showing the Centre of Low tracking just west of the Burin Peninsula and up through the Central Island. That would likely bring enough warm air in from the Southeast to change the Snow to Rain for many parts of the Avalon including St. John's. Central and Western parts of the Island would see Snow... and decent shot of it.
NewYears.JPG

GEM Model- This model has been consistantly showing the Low tracking just EAST of the Island. This would keep the entire Island in the Cold sector of the storm... meaning Snow for everyone. If this track comes true... the heaviest Snow and the strongest winds would be in store for the Avalon and the Eastern half of the Island. You Snow lovers in St. John's should keep your fingers crossed for this idea.
NewYears2.JPG

So as you can see a difference of less than 200 km's East or West will make a HUGE difference in the forecast.
Safe to say that you folks on the Burin and anywhere West of Terra Nova Park are in store for some Snow. You folks on the Bonavista and Avalon Peninsula's... stay tuned. In the next 24 hours we should have a better idea of what's in store.

Ryan

Your Comments

Is either of the weather models consistently better than the other. I've heard in the past that the US model (GFS, I believe) is more accurate.
Do you concur ... or is this perhaps a case of the grass being greener?
(love the blog!)

Cheers,
radmantrev

Posted by: radman on December 30, 2008 08:15 PM

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