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Predicting the news for the year ahead is a tricky if not risky business; after all, who would have predicted a year ago that the top stories of 2010 would involve a hurricane causing the worst storm damage in generations and a surprise retirement from Danny Williams?

Nonetheless, some things are clear for 2011. Here’s what we can expect in the year ahead.

1. Vale, Steelworkers. Steelworkers, Vale

Things get started right off the bat on Wednesday with a meeting in Happy Valley-Goose Bay between Vale Newfoundland and Labrador and the United Steelworkers, about the 17-month strike at the Voisey’s Bay nickel mine in northern Labrador. It’s the first time both sides have talked formally since October.

The timing is significant: the meeting takes place two days before the Newfoundland and Labrador government is poised to release the findings of an industrial inquiry, which was founded soon after those talks broke off. You may remember Danny Williams admitting that an industrial inquiry can sometimes prove to turn up information that could be embarrassing to either or both sides.

The first part of the report went out to both sides before Christmas, and, lo and behold, over the holidays they decided to revive talks. It makes you wonder if there may be a breakthrough … and even if the industrial inquiry report will see the light of day.

2. Other warming and cooling trends on the labour front

Still with labour disputes, we’ll be mindful of the still-running picket lines at two prominent sites in St. John’s. Workers at Purity Factories have been locked out since September, and Metrobus drivers and mechanics have been on strike since November.

3. Tory leadership

Another key date is just a few days away. The Progressive Conservative party is accepting nominations for a new leader up until next Monday. So far, Premier Kathy Dunderdale is the only candidate to have declared, and party faithful are not expecting anyone else to challenge her. We’ll learn Monday whether Dunderdale will be acclaimed as leader, or whether she will need to step aside for a convention to be held in the next few months.

4. Yvonne Jones and the Liberals

The Liberal leader stepped aside temporarily to put all of her strength into her fight against breast cancer. While Jones has said she intends to take the party into the fall election, plenty of political watchers are wondering if Jones is well enough to commit herself to the task. Certainly no one would begrudge her if Jones chooses to make her health her top priority.

In any event, the Liberals will working hard to rebuild themselves in 2011. With just four seats in the house of assembly, and no longer with the Danny Williams juggernaut in front of them, the Grits will need to earn the public’s attention. Speaking of which …

5. An election in October

Fixed-date legislation means that a provincial election will be held on Oct. 11, just after the Thanksgiving holiday. The Tories will be competing for a third majority government, while the Liberals and NDP, at the very least, will be aiming to increase the size and clout of the opposition. Much will depend on what number 3 and 4 above.

6. Federal election and/or speculation

The wags in Ottawa have been ramping up talk again about a federal election, perhaps in the spring. In Newfoundland and Labrador, it’s highly unlikely that anything like the ABC campaign of 2008 will emerge, which means the federal Tories will be looking to take back at least one of the seats they used to have.

7. Lower Churchill: The fine print, and the obstacles

When Nalcor, Emera and the governments of Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia signed a term sheet on the Lower Churchill development in November, the expectation was that it would take a year to turn the agreement into the language of a formal contract. While that happens, count on demand for more details about Muskrat Falls and what it means for consumers, ratepayers and governments.

Meanwhile, there are a number of important issues that have to be addressed before Muskrat Falls can become reality, not the least of which is an agreement on land issues between the federal government and the Innu of Labrador.

8. Cougar investigation

The Transportation Safety Board of Canada is expected to release its final report into the March 2009 Cougar helicopters crash in the Atlantic Ocean, off St. John’s. The TSB’s report is expected to identify what went wrong, and may lead to changes in the aircraft used for conveying workers to offshore rigs and platforms.

Meanwhile, retired justice Robert Wells, who has led the commission into offshore helicopter safety, is expected to follow the TSB’s report with his own final recommendations. He submitted the report of the first phase of his inquiry in November.

9. The fishery, and whether bullets will be bitten

The letters M-O-U - for Memorandum of Understanding - have been the talk of the fishing industry for what feels like ages. The issue has been a critical problem that pretty much every knows has to be resolved: there are far too many people in the industry. We can expect the provincial government to make another pitch to Ottawa to help spend money (a lot of it, we’re told) to force early retirements. However, federal Fisheries Minister Gail Shea has repeatedly expressed little taste for spending money on the issue.

As well, we’re reminded of comments from former cabinet minister Tom Rideout, who said he can’t see a political bullet being bitten before the provincial election.

In other words, with the fishery, the big news may be what doesn’t happen in 2011, rather than what does.

10. Oil futures

The offshore oil industry should deliver several stories worth watching. Or not, depending on what the companies choose to tell us. First, progress is continuing apace on Hebron, which will be the province’s fourth oil field. Expect to see a lot of work on the construction of the topsides for the platform that will be put into production.

We might also get a sense of what the longer-term future holds for properties off the east coast. Chevron Canada may tell us more about its work last year in a controversial deepwater drill in the Orphan Basin. Or we may learn more about other properties, like the StatoilHydro Canada discovery of hydrocarbons in a property called Mizzen. Keep June in mind for the annual NOIA conference, where players in the oilpatch tend to reveal their big news.