NL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS

2013-06-13T19:58:18Z

A new Climate Change Projection study was released by the Newfoundland & Labrador Government today and its the first of its kind for the Province.

The study was developed by Dr. Joel Finnis, who is a Climatologist & Professor of Geography at Memorial University. Dr. Finnis holds a PhD in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Colorado and is a leading expert in Canada on the downscaling of global climate projection models, for the application to smaller regions, such as Newfoundland and Labrador.

• Used 7 regional simulations from 4 global climate models

• 4 global climate models used: 1 Canadian, 1 British, 2 American.

• Down-scaled from global climate projection models to 50 km by 50 km grid area.

• Study used 18 weather stations for temperature and precipitation

• Study used 19 weather stations for extreme precipitation events

• Projected 19 temperature and precipitation variables

• Projected extreme precipitation for 3 intervals for 6 return periods

• Measured change from the end of the 20th century (1968-2000) to the mid 21st century (2038-2070)

CLIMATE CHANGE ALREADY UNDER WAY

-Temperatures in NL are already rising and are at records levels.

-Looking at the Provincial data, average temperatures in the past few years are about 2 degrees Celsius higher than they were the mid-1990's.

-Over the longer term, temperatures in the Province are now about 1.5 degrees higher than the 1961-1990 average.

-Here in NL, Warmest years on record have occurred in the past 15 years.

-An increasing number of hurricanes and tropical storms have been hitting the province.

-The Province has been experiencing an average of 11.5 Tropical Storms and Hurricane per 10 year period since 1990. Prior to 1990 the average was 6 storms per 10 year period.

CLIMATE PROJECTION HIGHLIGHTS

TEMPERATURES

-Newfoundland Temperatures are projected to rise by between 2º and 3º C by mid 21st century.

-Labrador Temperatures are projected to rise by between 3º and 4º C by mid 21st century.

-Temperature rise will result in fewer "heating degree days", meaning less demand for energy to heat buildings.

-Temperature rise will mean fewer days with frost, meaning a shorter winter.

-Temperature rise will result in more "growing degree days", meaning longer growing seasons.

PRECIPITATION

-There will be more days with high levels of precipitation (10 mm or more).

-Extreme precipitation events will increase for all locations.

-In most cases...

- 1-in-100 year storms are projected to become 1-in-50 or 1-in-25 year storms

- 1-in-50 year storms are projected to become 1-in-25 or 1-in-20 year storms

- 1-in-20 year storms are projected to become 1-in-5 or 1-in-2 year storms

-Newfoundland is expected to get more intense events than Labrador

-Precipitation events, on average, will be more intense particularly during fall and winter.

IMPLICATIONS FOR US

-Impacts on transportation infrastructure from higher levels of precipitation.

-Coastal erosion resulting from stronger storms.

-Agriculture and forestry productivity will improve, but also bring invasive species and pests.

-Reduced demand for energy in isolated communities.

-The winter tourism season may shorten.

-Warmer temperatures may increase aquaculture productivity but also bring risks to fish health.

-Warmer temperatures may increase the introduction and spread of aquatic invasive species.

INTERVIEW WITH DR. JOEL FINNIS

To check out the full climate change presentation, the data used in the study and the full technical report, you can click right here.

Ryan

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ACTIVE TROPICAL SEASON ON THE WAY

2013-06-10T22:36:38Z

PREVIOUS BLOG POST: CHASING STORMS IN TORNADO ALLEY

Hey Folks,

Well, our first brush with a Tropical system this season, wasn't anything to write home about. However as expected, Andrea did drop a pretty decent shot of Rain over the Southeastern parts of the Island this weekend. About 60 mm of rain was recorded on the Burin Peninsula.

For the complete Andrea Storm Summary click here.

EARLY START

June 1st is the beginning of Tropical Storm & Hurrricane Season, so although Andrea was an early season storm, we've certainly had plenty of June storms. Even here in NL, we've had a few. Since 1900, 3 named Storms have made landfall in NL, in June. 1945's Hurricane One. 1959's Hurricane Three and 1995's Allison. All 3 were Post Tropical Storms when they reached NL.

In terms of when we see Storms here in Newfoundland, no month compares to September. Since 1900, 33 named Storms have made landfall in Newfoundland! Percentage wise, more than 40% of our named storms have made landfall in September!

2013 SEASON PREVIEW

Over the past few weeks, the Hurricane experts at the National Weather Service and well respected scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) have released and updated their 2013 Hurricane season outlooks. Both outlooks are similar and predict an active Atlantic Hurricane season.

NOAA is predicting between 13 and 20 Named Tropical Storms, of which 7-11 will become Hurricanes, of which 3-6 will develop into a Major Hurricane (Category 3-5). Colorado State University is also predicting an above average year with 18 Named Storms, including 4 Major Hurricanes.

FACTORS

There are a few main factors that go into this years forecast.

-Continuation of the ongoing era of high Hurricane activity in the Atlantic since 1995. The warm (positive) AMO continues with a strong West African monsoon and a strong Easterly jet.

-Neutral phase of ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) is expected to continue. An El Nino phase can be a hindrance for Tropical Storm development, by increasing wind shear in the Caribbean.

-Warmer than average water temperatures are expected in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean. Note the warmer than normal temperatures here in Atlantic Canada already. This will be something to keep an eye on, especially later in the season.

ACTIVE FOR NEWFOUNDLAND

The active pattern means Newfoundland will once again have to keep a close eye on developing Storms, which is something the Island should be getting accustomed to. Newfoundland has had a land falling Tropical Storm or Hurricane every year since 2009, with Leslie, Ophelia, Maria, Igor & Bill.

We've also seen some powerful Post Tropical Storms in recent years. Everyone remembers Chantal in 2007 and Gabrielle, which actually tracked just East of the Avalon in 2001 and brought flooding rains to St. John's.

-Ryan-

]]> Andrea was the first, but certainly won't be the last, as an active Hurricane season begins.

STORM CHASING IN TORNADO ALLEY

2013-06-05T16:52:12Z

*NEW SPECIAL ONLINE FEATURE: CHASING MONSTERS.
PICTURES AND VIDEO FROM TORNADO ALLEY.
CHECK IT OUT HERE.

In case you missed my Storm Chasing TV piece on Here & Now the other night. Here it is.

-ORIGINAL BLOG POST-

They say timing is everything.

Following one of the quietest April's in U.S. history, I had completely prepared myself for a storm chasing trip with just a few storms and no expectation of tornadoes. However by the time I flew to Oklahoma City on May 12th, a pattern was change was underway, with an upper level trough digging into the Western United States.

Following two days of sightseeing and touring, the severe weather pattern kicked into the Plains. We chased in Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and of course Oklahoma. We saw some impressive and beautiful supercells, dust storms, golf ball sized hail and 6 tornadoes.

An EF0 at sunset, in an open field, in Kansas. Amazing.

Since I've returned, everyone seems to ask me the same 3 questions...

Why in the world would you go storm chasing?

I've always had fascination with thunderstorms. Being born and raised in Southern Ontario, I've witnessed some beautiful storms. However those storms are peanuts compared to the monster storms in the Plains of the United States. Then there's the 'Tornado Factor', because to me, there's nothing more stunning and powerful in mother nature. Never having seen a twister before, it's always been near the top of my bucket list. I know the danger that storm chasing brings, however the fascination and curiosity to see these one of these storms up close and in person, I felt was worth the risk.

What did I learn?

First and foremost, I learned a lot about storm chasing. I think most people think storm chasers are just weather loving, adrenaline junkie, cowboys. There's no doubt, that some of these elements are present in storm chasing. I mean you ARE chasing the most powerful storms on earth. However I also learned that storm chasers can be very important eyes on the ground, confirming to the weather office that a tornado has touched down and making certain people in the next town have advanced warning. Other storm chasers are in the thick of it, conducting very important scientific research on these unpredictable storms. Storm chasers are often the first on the scene following a tornado. The 'Storm Chaser Code', to abandon the chase and immediately become a first responder, was evident throughout my trip.

Personally speaking, chasing these storms, I learned so much about supercell development and structure. I also have a much better handle on the most important ingredients needed to 'cook them up'. I can tell you that standing less than 2 kilometres from a powerful EF3 wedge, I certainly developed a new appreciation for the power of tornadoes. We were so close, that at times I could actually see the individual suction vortices inside the main wedge. I also witnessed a horizontal vortex develop to the right side of the wedge, a true sign of a very powerful tornado. I was excited... and slightly terrified all at the same time.

We were standing less than 2 km away from this EF3 near Carney, Oklahoma.

Then there was Moore, a leaning experience like no other. My group was chasing a storm just south of Moore when the devastating EF5 tornado ripped through the town. We headed back to the Oklahoma City area and I flipped the switch from vacation mode to broadcaster mode. I met up with my CBC colleagues and headed into the aftermath of destruction.

The National Weather Service has rated the Moore Tornado an EF5, meaning peak winds between 320 and 340 km/h and makes it one of the strongest storms ever to hit the United States. The path of destruction was almost indescribable: two kilometres wide and 27 kilometres long. The tornado was on the ground for an astounding 50 minutes. I had never seen anything like it before. It was truly a life changing experience for me.

Looking at the rubble in the wake of the storm, to me there's little doubt that advanced warnings saved lives in Moore. The tornado struck on Monday, but I can tell you, even the week before, forecasters were talking about the potential for a widespread severe weather outbreak from Saturday to Monday, especially in the Oklahoma City area. On Sunday, numerous tornadoes dropped just north of the city, where at least one person was killed. On Monday morning, forecasters were again talking about the severe weather and tornado potential, particularly for the Oklahoma City area.

In the end, it was 2:40 p.m. when the first tornado warning was issued. It was only five minutes later that the tornado touched down in the Newcastle area as an EF0 and about 20 minutes later it began to move into Moore. A rare Tornado Emergency warning was issued at 3:01 p.m., which was 14 minutes before the storm ripped though Moore. These warnings prompt alerts on television, radio, mobile phones and of course tornado sirens. Tragically, 24 people lost their lives in Moore on Monday. However I believe the advanced warning systems and outlooks by forecasters on television, radio and social media, surely saved lives in Moore, Oklahoma.

As a Broadcast Meteorologist, I believe Moore helped me gain an all new appreciation for the importance of advanced warnings when storms, or severe weather approaches. Viewers, listeners and readers need time to prepare and it's our job to make sure they know something severe is on the way.

Will I go back and chase storms again?

Being in Moore, certainly had a big influence on me. However it was after my return home, that the now record 4.2 km wide, El Reno tornado tragically took the lives of 3 storm chasers. Those chasers included 30 year chasing veteran Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. The tornado quickly changed direction, intensified and grew in size in a matter of minutes, which explains why the experienced storm chasers were caught in its path. The fact that these well respected and experienced chasers were killed, proves the true danger in chasing storms.

However, the reason we've learned so much about this record tornado, is because of storm chasers. It was storm chasers from the University of Oklahoma and their mobile radar, which has provided the information for the NWS to reclassify the tornado as an EF5. It was the mobile radar which measured peak surface winds of 476 km/h and these amazing radar scans, where you can actually see an eye in the tornado.

Image Courtesy of the University of Oklahoma

Long story short, I do hope to head back and chase storms in Tornado Alley, one day. For the many reasons I listed above, I still feel storm chasing is important. I'd like to return not only to observe and document these powerful storms again, but as a broadcaster, perhaps to tell some of the stories of these chasers, who put themselves at risk.

Ryan

]]> Since I’ve returned, everyone seems to ask me the same 3 questions…

On the ground in Moore, Oklahoma

2013-05-22T14:35:46Z

Well, the secret is out. I’ve been storm chasing here in the U.S. from South Dakota to Texas to Oklahoma over the past week. In all I saw seven tornadoes. I’ll share all of my of pictures and video when I return to Newfoundland and Labrador next week.

My group was chasing a storm just south of Moore when the devastating EF5 tornado ripped through here on Monday. The National Weather Service has now discovered EF5 damage in the destruction, which means peak winds of 320-340 km/h and makes it one of the strongest storms ever to hit the U.S.

The path of destruction is almost indescribable: two kilometres wide, 27 kilometres long. The tornado was on the ground for 50 minutes.

Looking at the rubble in the wake of this storm, there’s little doubt that advanced warnings saved lives here in Moore.

I can tell you, even mid-last week forecasters were talking about the potential for a widespread severe weather outbreak from Saturday to Monday, especially here in Oklahoma. On Sunday, numerous tornadoes dropped just north of the city, where at least one person was killed.

On Monday morning, forecasters were again talking about the severe weather and tornado potential, especially for the Oklahoma City area.

It was 2:40 p.m. when the first tornado warning was issued. It was only five minutes later that the tornado touched down in the Newcastle area as an EF0 and about 20 minutes later it began to move into Moore.

A rare Tornado Emergency warning was issued at 3:01 p.m., which was 14 minutes before the storm ripped though Moore. These warnings prompt alerts on television, radio, mobile phones and of course tornado sirens.

Tragically, 24 people lost their lives here on Monday.

However the advanced warning systems and outlooks by forecasters surely saved lives here in Moore, Okla.

TURNING UP THE THERMOSTAT

2013-05-03T21:12:41Z

Hey Folks,

Well it a was a pretty decent week for most, especially inland and away from the Northeast Coast of Newfoundland.

-What a week in Happy Valley-Goose Bay with record breaking temperatures & back to back 20 degree days! HV-GB has only ever hit 20 in April 4 times. 2 of those times were this week, including Thursday's 21.7°, which is now the warmest April day ever recorded.

-A nice week on the West Coast, which gave you folks a chance to dry out after all that heavy rain last weekend! This was the scene on the TCH near Pasadena on Tuesday. Courtesy Brent Ruth.

-Heavy rain last week caused another washout on the Burgeo Highway. Picture courtesy Colleen Conners.

-Overall, it was a warm wrap up to April, which was generally warmer than normal for most of the Province, with the exception of Labrador West. These numbers are courtesy of Rodney Barney.

-In St. John's, it was a warmer than normal April, but a far cry from last years record breaking April. It's hard to believe that last April finished with an average of 5.3°, almost 3° degrees warmer!

-In terms of Rainfall, April was quite a variable month, mostly thanks to our rain storm last weekend which drenched the West Coast with 50-170 mm of Rain. As a result, the West Coast was well above normal, meanwhile Gander finished with a record low rainfall for April.

WEEKEND HIGHLIGHTS

-High pressure will be in control across the Island this Weekend, with Sun and Cloud in the mix and temperatures on the rise.

-A light Northeasterly flow continues on Saturday, which means cooler temps again right along the Coast, but back into the double digits for inland areas of the Island. Temps into the mid-high teens from Central to the West Coast. Could certainly see a few backyards in the 20° range.

-Not so much in Labrador. Cold subzero temps for the North Coast, with Snow on the menu from Nain to Cartwright. Early morning freezing rain is possible, however temps are set to rise with clouds and afternoon showers from Lab City to HV-GB.

-A Special Weather Statement is in effect for almost all of Labrador. Freezing Rain Warning for Churchill Valley.

-Sunday, Sunday, SUNDAY!
-Sunday temperatures continue to rise across the Island, with winds FINALLY becoming West Southwesterly. Forecast models are flirting with temps into the high teens & flirting with 20° from GFW and Central Newfoundland, East through Gander, Terra Nova, Clarenville & across to St. John's Metro! Sun & Cloud in the mix.

-We'll see increasing clouds from the Northwest on Sunday afternoon into Northern sections of the West Coast & into Central. A few showers are possible for the Northern Peninsula, which could even mix with a flurry overnight into Monday morning.

-Southern Labrador continues unsettled on Saturday with clouds and showers and a few flurries possibly mixing in again. Clearing along the North Coast.

NEXT WEEK

-Southwesterly winds look set to dominate for most of the Week across the Island. Below is the GFS forecast model for Winds in St. John's through next week. Looks like we'll see a light North to East wind (and a cooler onshore flow) again here in Eastern Newfoundland on Monday, before we hop aboard the Southwesterly train Tuesday & beyond. That means temperatures well into the double digits & teens, look set for most of the Island next week.

-High pressure will anchor itself Southeast of the Island, which will help to keep the Southwesterly flow in place and keep things quiet and for the most part dry. A few showers possible Monday across parts of the Island, as well as Labrador on Tuesday.

-As of now, it appears that Southwesterly flow will allow some unsettled weather to roll in for late next week (Thurs-Fri-Sat) with some showers for the Province.

-However that Southwesterly flow will stick around, as a result, the warm temperatures are expected to continue right into next Weekend.

LONG LONG RANGE

May 12th-May 18th- Both the Euro & the long range GFS keep High pressure mostly dominate just Southeast of Newfoundland with a Southerly flow pumping in with warm temperatures. However they are also both projecting a potential wet set-up with a stream of tropical moisture pumping in from the South.

May 19th-May 25th- Only the monthly Euro goes out this far. It continues to project a dominate ridge of High pressure SE of NFLD and a warm Southwesterly flow. Things remain active with a few systems clipping in from the South.

May 26th-May 31st- Euro projecting a West Southwesterly flow continues more dominate than not. A much quieter week.

Environment Canada's Monthly Outlook is also projecting a warm May. In fact, it's projecting a warmer than normal month for the entire Province.

A GLIMPSE INTO SUMMER

Environment Canada's monthly temperature outlook for the Summer has also been released. And it's good news for us here in NL as well as most of Canada. The climate models are projecting warmer than normal temps for most of Canada and they are giving Eastern Newfoundland the best chance (70-100% probability). Click on image for full size.

Precipitation, which is much harder for climate models to project, is forecast to be near to slightly below normal over NL this Summer.

Ryan

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LONG RANGE: HIGH PRESSURE & FOG

2013-04-26T22:04:16Z

Hey Folks,

The warmer Spring time air has arrived in NL and it appears (generally speaking) it's not going anywhere!

-Over the past week, much of NL had it's first taste of double digits. Corner Brook, Gander, Badger, Bonavista & many more hit 15° this past Saturday. St. John's, Stephenville, Twillingate & a few more ended up falling just short of the magic 15° mark. Deer Lake was the big winner with temps of 20°.

-Tuesday, Thursday and even today here in the East, temperatures rebounded with more double digits and temps back into the teens! Daniel's Harbour hit 20° on Thursday and for St. John's, Friday it was our first 15° day of the season!

-Here's Rodney Barney's chart of when we typically hit the 15° mark across the Island. This Spring, we've been right in that range for Newfoundland. Your turn is coming Labrador!

WEEKEND TIME

-A Significant Freezing Rain event still looks likely for tonight over the Northern Peninsula and Southeastern Labrador tonight. Freezing Rain Warnings are in place with some solid ice accretion possible. Treacherous roads and even some power outages are certainly possible.

-Tonight and into Saturday will continue very wet in Western Newfoundland. Rainfall Warnings remain in place for Western Newfoundland & the Southwest Coast. Showers continue in Central on Saturday and another warm, pleasant but mostly cloudy day here in Eastern Newfoundland.

-Our trough slowly edges Eastward on Sunday, bringing some relief for the West Coast, a few more showers for Central, and a better chance of some showers & fog in the mix (especially along the Coast) in Eastern Newfoundland.

-Things turn nasty in Southeast Labrador tonight and into Saturday with Snow, Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain & Rain. Could see 5-10 cm from the Straits to Cartwright. It looks like High pressure will keep HV-GB in the clear, with Western Labrador looking great as well. Temps building through the Weekend and back into the double digits and teens by Sunday-Monday in HV-GB. 15° looks like a lock for you folks with 20° looking possible by mid-week.

NEXT WEEK

An interesting setup next week to say the least. High pressure will move North of the Island as we head into early next week. Looks like that setup will trigger a pesky Northeasterly wind flow for the Northeast Coast of Newfoundland and for St. John's Metro. Monday & Tuesday in particular, are looking cool & cloudy with fog in the mix. However with a Northeast flow, inland areas into Central, as well as the South & West Coasts are looking at warming temperatures & some Sunshine in the mix.

By mid-late next week, some forecast models are bringing that High just far enough South over the Island, that the pesky moist Northeasterly flow would shift further South, which would allowing Metro & the Northeast Coast to warm up slightly (closer to seasonal) & perhaps even allow some Sunshine to break through during the daytime hours. However if that High stays further North... we could be hitting repeat on Monday/Tuesday for much of the week. Keep your fingers crossed!

Again areas shielded from that Northeast flow, including Central, Western and Southern Newfoundland, as well as Labrador are looking really nice, especially mid-late next week. Forecast models are again flirting with temps into the mid-high teens!

THE NEXT 10 DAYS

Here's the GEM Global Model ensemble look at temperatures over the next 10 days. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to continue across much of Atlantic Canada & especially in Labrador. Again, I think St. John's & exposed Northeast Coast will very much be dependent on the placement of that High pressure and just how strong and persistent those Northeast winds will be mid-late next week.

THE NEXT 14 DAYS

The North American Ensemble Forecast System looks at temps 8-14 days into the long range. It's also showing a good chance of warmer than normal temperatures across Atlantic Canada through for the first week of May.

EUROPEAN MONTHLY MODEL OUTLOOK

The ECMWF has a 30 day forecast model, which released once a week. Here here a few 'grain of salt' highlights from that, for the month of May.

May 5th-11th

-Plenty of High pressure. A quiet pattern, with no big systems rolling through. Temps normal to above normal.

May 12th-18th

-High pressure continues in the mix, holding over Labrador through mid week, before turning unsettled late week. Temps near normal, with potential East or Northeast winds for Newfoundland.

May 19th-25th

-Overall dry again, with high pressure dominates just to the North and over the Labrador Sea. Again, this setup brings the potential for East or Northeast winds for the Island. Temps near normal.

Again, big grain of salt territory, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Environment Canada will issue their outlook for the month of May on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll be sure to pass it along.

Ryan

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WARM AIR ON THE WAY!

2013-04-18T16:13:25Z

Hey Folks,

Well the Weekend is almost here... and so too is the warm air! It's been a relatively average or even cooler than average April in terms of temperatures. Of course, temperatures warm through the month of April, with the warmest temperatures typically coming in the 2nd half of the month, however here's where we are in terms of daily highs from April 1st-April 17th.

St. John's: Avg Daily High: 4.5° (1971-2000 April Avg: 5.2°)

Gander: Avg Daily High: 4.1° (1971-2000 April Avg: 5.2°)

Deer Lake: Avg Daily High: 5.3° (1971-2000 April Avg: 6.1°)

Goose Bay: Avg Daily High: 2.4° (1971-2000 April Avg: 3.3°)

Labrador City: Avg Daily High: -0.8° (1971-2000 April Avg: +0.9°)

So we have some ground to make up here in the 2nd half of the month. Some good news from this past week, Happy Valley-Goose Bay (for the 2nd time this Spring) Cartwright and Deer Lake all officially hit double digits this week! For Deer Lake, 10.2° on Tuesday was the first official double digit temperature recorded on the Island this Spring and first since late January.

WARM WEEKEND

-Much of Newfoundland will be well into the double digits this Weekend as a system rolls up the Eastern half of North America, bringing a strong Southwesterly flow along with it. The warm front from this system will move across the Province on Friday bringing flurries and showers (and some accumulating snow for Labrador) before the warm air pushes in behind with showers for Saturday. Here's the latest European forecast model outlook, looking at 2 metre temperatures in 3° intervals for Saturday.

-You can see with a track far enough West, even Labrador will be taping into this warm air mass on Saturday.

-By Sunday (above), the cold front will push through Labrador and drop temperatures back below zero. The West Coast will be cooler on Sunday, however Central and Eastern Newfoundland will continue to see the warm air mass.

-The forecast indeed looks warm this Weekend, however you don't get temperatures into the teens in Newfoundland in April, without a strong Southerly wind pumping in it in. Winds do look strong on Saturday especially across the Island, with gusts in the 60-70 km/h range, even 80+ km/h right along parts of the Coast on Saturday. Winds will be lighter on Sunday, with gusts in the 40-60 range.

-The clouds look set to dominate on Saturday across the Island, with a few showers, but also a few Sunny breaks for East and Central Newfoundland. Clouds & showers look most dominate for Western Newfoundland and into Labrador. Fog looks likely for the South Coast with that moist onshore flow.

-By Sunday, the clouds and a few showers from our cold front will move into Eastern Newfoundland. Clearing skies over Western and into Central Newfoundland with a better chance of Sun.

NEXT WEEK- WILL HIGH PRESSURE HOLD?

-High pressure and cooler temperatures will funnel into the Province in behind our Weekend system for Sunday night and into Monday, but won't last long.

-A Southerly flow looks set to return on the backside of that High and ahead of our next system. As a result, temperatures look set to rise again Tuesday-Wednesday of next week, with forecast models again flirting with double digit temperatures.

-That system off to our West will continue to edge closer and could bring some showers into the mix for Wednesday/Thursday, especially for Labrador. However much will depend on the strength of that High, which could keep the Island dry & even bright. Either way, a Southerly flow should keep temperatures mild.

-Mid-late next week will be a very interesting set-up indeed. With the trough of low pressure and unsettled weather just off to the West and High pressure holding strong just to our East/Southeast, it looks like a big old battle between the two. (Cue the movie trailer voice) "Who will be stronger? Can the area of High pressure hold, all-week-long?"

-If that high can't hold, the Island would turn damp and unsettled as the trough moves Eastward for the latter half of the week. Stay tuned.

-As Thursday afternoon, the GFS, GEM & Euro area are all holding that High strong, just off to our Southeast perhaps right into next Weekend. That would keep the Island mostly dry and mild/warm with a Southerly flow through next week. However Labrador, would be unsettled.

-Environment Canada's 10 day Ensemble Outlook backs up the warmer the normal outlook through next Week here in Atlantic Canada.

-The latest Long Range NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecasting System) system outlook goes one step further, showing warmer than normal temperatures continuing into early May for Newfoundland and Labrador.

LONGER RANGE

-A quick check of the latest European Monthly Outlook also shows a mostly dominate South or Southwesterly flow and warmer than normal temperatures for the remainder of April. In fact, it goes one step further and holds this pattern setup into the first half of May across the Island.

Ryan

]]> Signs of Spring warmth in the long range, beginning with a warm up this Weekend.

WAITING FOR THE DOUBLE DIGITS

2013-04-12T14:00:07Z

I thought I would begin with a beautiful shot from Portland, Bonavista Bay, courtesy of Maurice Simmonds. This picture proves that even a grey foggy day can be a gorgeous day in parts of NL.

You know, it really hasn't been a bad start to April, but I'm sure getting plenty of questions asking... "When are we REALLY going to warm up?" Following the warmest April on record in St. John's & just an overall great Spring for NL last year, it's understandable that everyone is 'chomping at the bit'.

THE RACE TO 10°

We've had a few days flirting with 10° so far this month, last Friday was the first one and this past Tuesday was the other, however no official 10° temps recorded at official EC weather stations so far this month. The funny thing is, St. John's, Gander & Deer Lake have all hit the magic 10° mark this year. However it was way back during the huge 'Winter Storm' warm up on January 31st... and we haven't returned to that mark since. Happy Valley-Goose Bay hit 10° with a big warm up back on March 14th. Stephenville hit 9.8° on April 1st and that's your warmest temperature this year. Labrador City your warmest temp so far is 4.7° on April 1st.

Stat: We still have more than half a month to go, but interesting that the last time we didn't reach double digits at YYT in March OR April, was 2001. It took us until May 7th, when we hit 11°. We reached 20° just 2 days later! Of course, we were coming out of the famous Winter of 2000-2001 :)

THE RACE TO 15°

Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost tweeted this chart out last week. It shows the first date each region has reached 15 degrees over the past 5 years.

Last year was of course unprecedented here in St. John's. We hit 15° and 20° degrees for the first time last year on the same day, April 17th and then did it again the next day! In the end, St. John's hit 15° a total of 6 times last April... and again 2 of the those days we went on to hit 20°. Remember, that was the warmest April on record. :)

SHORTER RANGE

Temperatures will hover near or slightly below normal for the rest of this week and into the Weekend as well. However as our Weekend system departs, an area of high pressure will move into the region. It looks like that High will indeed set-up for a day or 2 (Mon-Tues) next week, which will allow for some warming temps. As of now, looks like we'll certainly see some high single digit temps across the Island and perhaps even flirt with double digits in some spots in West/Central.

How warm we get, will depend on the set-up of that High and the speed of our next system, which at this point, forecast models are bringing in for Wednesday. Still a few ideas on this one, which looks set bring another wet snow/rain threat.

LATE NEXT WEEK WARM SHOT

Following our mid-week system the LONG range forecast models have been hinting at a system for late next week (Fri-Sat), which could bring a solid shot of warm air and rain up the Eastern Seaboard and into Atlantic Canada. Again, this is long range... but right now this looks like our next real chance at some wide spread double digit temperatures across the Island.

Here's a look at the NAEFS (North American Emsemble Forecast System) Outlook which shows temperatures 8-14 days from now... (April 18th to April 25th). As you can see it's expected that temperatures will warm slightly towards the end of the month, with normal to above normal temperatures expected.

A quick look at the weekly ECMWF month long forecast model, backs up this idea showing a warm up for the week of the 22nd and more seasonal temperatures for the end April and into early May. It's also showing seasonal to above seasonal temps for the first full week of May. Again, this is an extremely long range forecast model, big grain of salt territory, but fun to look at for sure!

NEW STUDY FINDS MORE PRECIPITATION IN FUTURE STORMS

In the Climate File this week, a new NOAA led study has found that a warming world will further intensify extreme precipitation events.

The study reports that as the globe warms from rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will be capable of holding moisture, which will make the most extreme precip events, even more intense.

"We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events" says Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D, senior research professor at CICS-NC and lead author of the paper.

Ryan

]]> A look ahead to the next few weeks, as we wait for the double digits temps to arrive in NL.

A LOOK BACK, A LOOK AHEAD

2013-04-03T21:45:39Z

A look back at March and a look ahead to the next few months across the Province.

MARCH SNOW

March was an interesting month indeed. A quiet start to the month for the Province, with not much Snow for most, however it certainly picked up. The Weekend of March 23rd, Southeastern Labrador was POUNDED with Snow and Wind. Forecast models were dropping 80-100+ cm of Snow and it appears they were bang on. The road from Red Bay to Lodge Bay was closed for 6 days and its no wonder why. The picture below was taken by Clyde Barney this past Monday.

You can see all of Clydes pictures here on Rodney Barney's Stormpost Website.

Our latest "March Out Like A Lion" Storm certainly didn't disappoint in terms of wind and pounding waves along the Northeast Coast. However, it also gave another blast of Snow to the Northeast Coast. Gander and parts of Central Newfoundland were the bullseye with over 50 cm in 3 days! That bumped March Snowfall totals over normal in Gander. Here's a breakdown of Snowfall across the rest of NL, courtesy of Rodney.

MARCH WARMTH?

Some more great numbers posted by Rodney Barney. Here are temperatures for the month of March.

Once again, NL ends March Warmer Than Normal, sticking with the recent trend.

NL WARMTH = UK COLD?

Some interesting stuff coming from the UK over the past few days. The final numbers from the month of March are in and the CET (Central England Temperature) shows that March 2013, was the coldest March since 1892. Impressive stuff. The CET is the world's longest temperature data set, started back in 1659. This info courtesy of Paul Hudson, who is a great follow on Twitter @HudsonWeather

We've seen this before. Record cold in England, while just across the pond here in NL we see warmer (in some cases much warmer) than normal temperatures. Perfect example: The Winter of 2010-2011. A Winter not soon forgotten in UK for it's record Snow & Cold and not soon forgotten here in NL for it's warmth. Especially in Labrador.

BLOCKING HIGH

Much like the early Winter of 2010-2011, higher than normal pressure completely dominated over the Arctic and Greenland this past month. Below is map of the Northern Hemisphere, looking a Sea Level Pressure Anomalies for March 2013. The bright yellow, orange and reds show the impressive Higher than normal pressure over Greenland and the Arctic. Meanwhile, look how much lower than normal the pressure was Southeast of Newfoundland and across the Atlantic.

This type of Blocking High setup typically keeps the UK cold with North/Northeasterly winds wrapping into the region. However here in NL, especially in the Winter, it can keep us milder by keeping the cold Arctic air out, with an more dominate onshore Easterly flow. However as we move into May, June, July & August this type of setup is NOT typically a good thing. Remember Juneuary & Fogust? The Summer of 2011 was dominated by this type of a setup.

LESS SEA ICE = MORE BLOCKING?

As I've mentioned on some previous posts, there's some debate in the scientific community surrounding the recent lack of Summer and Fall Arctic sea ice and whether it's linked to these blocking patterns and cold Winter UK outbreaks. Here's a great blog post by Stefan Rahmstorf (who is the head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) on the issue. Have a read if you're interested: http://rabett.blogspot.de/2013/03/melting-ice-and-cold-weather.html

SPRING FORWARD

Still with the blocking issue, we're already starting to see some improvements with the blocking high easing over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions. When the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) are in a negative phase, higher than normal pressure dominates in these regions. However as you can see, both the NAO and AO are set to rebound over the next few weeks. Again, good news for us as we move into the warm season.

APRIL MAY AND JUNE WARMTH TOO?

As we look ahead... Environment Canada has released it's outlook for the next 3 months and once again, NL is expected to see warmer than normal temperatures.

In terms of probabilities... EC is giving much of the Province a 60-100% chance of warmer than normal temps over the next 3 months.

SHORT TERM->WEEKEND SPRING STORM

UPDATED: AN UPDATE ON THE WEEKEND STORM HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE LIVE BLOG HERE.

If you've been watching Here & Now the past few nights, or checking out the Live Blog, then you likely already know we have something brewing for Saturday. Forecast models continue to develop a system from the Southeast U.S. up the East Coast and then track the Storm into NL on Saturday. However. there remains some disagreement. The past few days, the GFS & GEM models are were showing a track which would bring a decent Rain & Wind Storm for most of the Island, with some Snow to Rain for the West Coast & Snow and Wind on tap for Central/Eastern Labrador. The European model had been tracking the system further East, keeping Snow a possibility for Western & even Central Newfoundland. Now this afternoon, the latest GFS has shifted a bit further East and the European further West! And Cha-Cha-Cha go the forecast models!

It's still only Wednesday, stay tuned to the live blog for the latest. Either way, it appears this Storm will pack a punch with strong winds.

Ryan

]]> A look back at March and a look ahead to the next few months across the Province.

ONSHORE FLOW, ALL WEEK LONG

2013-03-25T21:32:48Z

For Newfoundland and Labrador, March is set to end, just as it began... cool & unsettled.

A strong blocking High over the North Atlantic will keep an area of Low pressure sitting just East of Newfoundland, all week long. As a result, it's a straight up onshore flow on the menu for the North Coast of Newfoundland and Coastal Labrador.

We'll see drizzle and fog patches along the Northeast Coast on Tuesday. However if there is a positive in this set-up, especially for mid-late week, it'll be the change to North Northwesterly winds, instead of those Northeasterly winds which tend to bring the typical R-D-F completely socked in pattern.

As result, we're set to see a little taste of everything. Mostly dominate cloud cover, some showers, drizzle, freezing drizzle, flurries, but more than anything the chilly Northerly winds, as temperatures that hover at or just above the freezing mark in Metro & along the North Coast.

Certainly not the Spring pattern you'd hope for, to end the month of March.

The current set-up really is quite remarkable. What is typically a prevailing Westerly flow, right now is a dominate Easterly flow which stretches from Eastern Europe, through the UK and across the Atlantic into Eastern Canada.

Again, the reason we're going to be locked into this set-up is because of High pressure dominating from the Arctic region, right across North Atlantic. That high pressure is creating a road block and won't allow the big old area of Low pressure East of the Island to kick out.

So when might this pattern break down?

One of the best indicators of a pattern change lies with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). As you've likely heard me saying countless times before, when the NAO is in a negative phase, pressure is higher than normal over the North Atlantic, which leads to the blocking pattern we'll be in for this week. The good news is, long range forecast models are hinting that the NAO index will move more towards a neutral phase by this Weekend and especially into early next week.

The Long Range ECMWF (European model) is also indicating this relentless pattern will begin to ease late this weekend and into early next week, with a more West to East flow and a few systems shooting in and perhaps even an area of High pressure! Have a look.

Stay tuned to the live blog for the latest.

Ryan

]]> March is set to end across NL, just as it began... unsettled.

18 YEARS OF NL WINTER WARMTH

2013-03-07T16:30:42Z

Hey Folks,

Another Winter has come and gone. Meteorological Winter is December, January and February. Statistically, these are the three months when we experience the coldest temps & snowiest weather across most of NL. However once again this Winter, temperatures were warmer than normal right across the Province, an ongoing trend that perhaps could be called, the new normal.

You'll often hear Nan and Pop say... "Winters certainly aren't what they used to be". And it seems our elders are right, especially when it comes to the past 2 decades. For some places, like Gander and Deer Lake, this past Dec-Jan-Feb was your 18th straight with normal and mostly warmer than normal Winter temps! An almost unbelievable run. In Stephenville, Labrador City, and St. John's the only 'colder' than normal Winters have only been cooler by less than half a degree. Newfoundland and Labrador really hasn't experienced a widespread colder than average Winter, since the 1994/1995 season.

I've gone all the way back and crunched the numbers for the past 20 Winters across the Province. I need to mention right off the top here, that this is an unscientific number crunch. I looked at 8 locations across NL and used the average temperature from December, January and February from each of the past 20 years. I then compared that average temperature, to the '30 year normal' for those months.

Note: The '30 year normal' temperatures I refer to are the 1971-2000 Environment Canada averages. It's expected that later this year those numbers will change to 1981-2010 averages. I will update you on those changes when they happen, because there is no doubt, those new numbers will look different.

Here's how things break down region by region.

St. John's
-This past Winter was the 10th straight, with warmer than normal temperatures.

-16 of the past 18 Winters have averaged warmer than normal. The other 2 Winters were within half a degree of normal. Yes the famous 2000-2001 Winter included!

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 1.1° degrees warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 1.7° degrees warmer than the 30 year normal.

Gander
-This past Winter was the 18th straight, with near normal or warmer than normal temperatures!

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 1.5° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 2.1° warmer than the 30 year normal.

Deer Lake
-This past Winter was the 18th straight, with near normal, or warmer than normal temperatures.

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 1.8° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 2.5° warmer than the 30 year normal.

Stephenville
-This past Winter was the 10th straight, with warmer than normal temperatures.

-17 of the past 18 Winters have averaged near or warmer than normal. 02/03 was just -0.1° 'cooler' than normal.

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 1.7° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 2.4° warmer than the 30 year normal.

Cartwright

-Cartwright comes in at 2nd, in terms of Winter warming over the past 10 & 20 years.

-This past Winter was the 5th straight, with warmer than normal temperatures.

-17 of the past 18 Winters have averaged near or warmer than normal.

-Interesting that Cartwright is one of only two locations to have experienced a Winter, cooler than 1° below normal in 18 years.

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 2° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 2.9° warmer than the 30 year normal.

Nain
-Out of our 8 locations, no region has witnessed a larger rise in Winter temps than Nain.

-This past Winter was the 5th straight with warmer than normal temperatures.

-Nain is the only other of the 8 locations to experience a Winter, colder than 1° below normal over the past 18 years.

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 2.1° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 3° warmer than the 30 year normal.

Happy Valley-Goose Bay
-This past Winter was the 5th straight, with warmer than normal temperatures.

-17 of the past 18 Winters have averaged near or warmer than normal.

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 1.9° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 2.7° warmer than the 30 year normal.

Labrador City
-This past Winter was the 8th straight, with warmer than normal temperatures.

-17 of the past 18 Winters have averaged near or warmer than normal. 04/05 was just 0.2 'cooler' than normal.

-The past 20 Winters have averaged 1.8° warmer than the 30 year normal.

-The past 10 Winters have averaged 2.6° warmer than the 30 year normal.

*All statistics are from Environment Canada Weather Stations.

-Ryan

]]> A look back at the temps over the past 2 decades shows that NL Winters aren't what they used to be.

HERE COMES THE RDF

2013-02-27T16:11:38Z

WINTER REPORT CARD

A big thanks to Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost for passing along some of these Winter numbers to share with you. I thought now, (before the melt) would be a good time to check in and see where we are for Snowfall totals and Snow on the ground.

St. John's

Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 247.5 cm (40 cm above average)

Snow on ground today: 25 cm (average)

Gander

Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 253.6 cm (Almost exactly average 251 cm)

Snow on ground today: 120 cm (well above the 42 cm avg)

Deer Lake

Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 272.6 cm (Also very near the 282 cm avg)

Snow on ground today: 55 cm (below the avg of 80 cm)

Happy Valley-Goose Bay

Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 240.4 cm (About 20 cm above avg)

Snow on ground today: 123 cm (well above the 78 cm avg)

Labrador City

Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 291.2 cm (105 cm above average!)

Snow on ground today: 104 cm (slightly above 92 cm avg)

MAUZY SETUP

First of all, a big shout out to the GFS model. I wrote a blog back on February 14th and at the end, I mentioned that the long range GFS model had been hinting at a blocking pattern for the end of the month and into March. Long range 7-14 day forecast models change drastically from run to run, however they are helpful for this very thing; picking up on pattern changes and the 'overall setup' in the atmosphere. Kudos to the GFS, for signalling this pattern change, almost to the day, nearly 2 weeks ago!

The setup does indeed look 'mauzy' for St. John's and the Northeast Coast for the coming days. The ridge of High pressure 'blocking' the highway in the atmosphere really sets up this Weekend and it will be massive. By Saturday, forecast models stretch the ridge from Baffin Island to Europe! Nothing will be getting through. For St. John's and the Northeast Coast. Time to bring on the RDF!

-For St. John's and the Northeast Coast: It looks like this RDF pattern with East-Northeasterly flow will hold strong right through this weekend and into early next week. As is usually the case in these foggy set-ups, flights will likely be impacted at YYT and even YQX.

-Our current low will continue to weaken over the next few days, however it will wrap a decent pulse of moisture into Newfoundland and Labrador on Friday into Saturday. Periods of rain mixed with Snow is on the menu for the Island and into Southeastern Labrador.

-In the Straits and right along the Southeast Coast, you'll likely get into the Snow mixed with Rain action. However, for areas inland and up to Cartwright, Makkovik and even HV-GB this could be an all (or mostly) Snow event for you folks. Friday-Saturday is the time frame. Stay tuned.

-A new low moves into the Grand Banks on Friday-Saturday, which will help to keep this lovely pattern sustained through the weekend.

GOODBYE NL WINTER?

Alright, I know, I know. For those who love Winter, how could I say such a thing! For those who don't love Winter, I shouldn't jinx it, right?

True. There's no way Winter is truly over. March is a long month in NL, we're destined to see a few big Storms... calling Sheila! However, with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) set to remain negative into early March and the now the AO (Arctic Oscillation) set to tank in March... Winter will likely have a tough time getting 'setup' over the next few weeks. By then we're into Sheila time and then Spring begins March 20th!

Both a negative NAO and AO tend to bring a warmer than normal setup for Newfoundland and Labrador. And as we'll see over the next few days, the negative NAO can bring a full on East-Northeast coastal flow, which can last for days.

For a rundown on the NAO & AO and how they 'typically' influence the Weather patterns across North America and here in Atlantic Canada, here's a fantastic link.

Again, stay tuned to the Live Blog for the very latest on the day to day #NLwx!

Ryan

]]> North Atlantic Blocking High really sets up this Weekend. Time for our first taste of R-D-F

BLOCKING HIGH SET TO RETURN

2013-02-22T18:25:02Z

CURVE BALL STORM MOVES OUT

-Just a few quick thoughts on our latest Storm. Perhaps the fact that the GFS wouldn't agree with the GEM and Euro, right up until the 11th hour, was our sign that the forecast models never really had a good handle on this system.

-The setup wasn't typical either. All of the snow was falling along an elongated trough, which ended up being much narrower than forecast models were projecting. The trough also ended up moving further North than was originally thought, those 2 factors ended things early for St. John's yesterday, after only 5 cm of Snow. Still, Clarenville, Terra Nova & Bonavista did get their expected Snow through the day on Thursday.
-However as I mentioned on the Live Blog last night, forecast models were holding our trough together nicely overnight and bringing it back across the Avalon overnight and into Friday morning. They certainly nailed that. Still waiting for official totals, but about 17 cm fell in St. John's last night and through this morning. A little redemption for us forecasters and the models!

-Final thought. No doubt, the forecast models did a poor job with this system. However the last 'busted forecast' I can think of was our 'White Ninja' storm late last January. We've had 14 Storms or systems move through since the big East Nfld Blizzard back on January 10th... and the forecast models have done a pretty solid job with 13 of them. 90+% isn't half bad, especially when you're on rock in the middle of the Atlantic!

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN

High pressure is taking over and turning things quiet over the next few days. Northerly winds, cool temperatures and a few flurries will be on the menu for the Northeast Coast through the day on Saturday, however we'll see lots of Sunshine for the rest of the Province. Sunday looks like a great day for the entire Province. Sunshine in the mix for everyone, temps just below zero across the Island and temps a few degrees above seasonal in Labrador. Here's the GEM Regional projection for the next 36 hours.

RETURN OF THE BLOCKING HIGH- PART 337

It's baaaaaaack. As I mentioned in last weeks post, forecast models had been hinting at the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) turning into a negative phase. That switch to negative is now well under way and will continue right through next week.

A negative NAO indicates higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and quite often a blocking pattern sets up. That pattern can often lead to long periods of an unfavorable onshore flow for the Atlantic Coastline of NL. That blocking pattern will be on the menu for mid-late next week as an area High pressure sets up over Greenland. A storm which will be moving South of the Island on Monday, will want to cross the Atlantic as usual, but will be blocked from doing so. Instead, the system will sit and spin to the Southeast of Newfoundland and will wrap precip back into NL late Wednesday or Thursday. That good ol' East/Northeast coastal onshore flow will set up and could hold right through next weekend. Have a look at the long range European model, to see our blocking High in action.

JANUARY WARMTH

As I mentioned in my December-January recap, January temperatures were slightly above average in NL. However across the planet, January was the 9th warmest January since record keeping began back in 1880, according to NOAA. Land temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, while ocean temps were 8th warmest.

Image Courtesy of NOAA Climate.gov

The craziest stat is our on going trend. January was the 335th consecutive month with warmer than normal global temperatures, based on the 20th century average. The last time we had a below average month? February 1985. For more check out this Global Temperature Update.

Ryan

]]> High pressure sets up through the Weekend. Blocking High is set to return mid-next week.

A MONTH OF MADNESS!

2013-02-14T19:00:31Z

What a crazy month of Weather we've had across the Province. After a quieter start to the season, Winter really kicked in mid-January and we haven't looked back. Generally across NL, Winter has been full on since the big Blizzard in Eastern Newfoundland on January 11th.

Including the Blizzard, we've had 12 systems/storms in the past month. The past few weeks have been the most intense. As a whole we've had 7 systems or storms move through since the January 30th, including Tuesday's snow-maker. That's 7 systems or storms in 14 days. It's been active!

Here are a few highlights from our month of Winter madness.

January 10th-11th: EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BLIZZARD

-Over 50 cm in St. John's, and 70-90 cm in the Trinity Bay area. Peak winds gusts over 130 km/h. 30 hours of Freezing Drizzle in Gander. Biggest Storm in years. Enough said.

January 14th-15th: LAB WEST STORM. NL WARM UP

-System brings record breaking 4.0° temps to HV-GB and warm air to SE Labrador and right across the Island. Temp rises to 6°-8° in Metro. Meanwhile in Labrador West 18 cm of Snow, following by an intense cold front, which set the stage for a bitter cold snap.

January 18th: EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SNOW, COLD FOR ALL

-As Arctic air floods into NL, especially Labrador. St. John's and Eastern Newfoundland gets clipped by a system passing SE of the Avalon. Snow is light and fluffy with reports from 10 cm at YYT to 27 cm in the Southlands! Following the Storm, Wx stations across the Province dip to some of their coldest temps of the Winter. #YYT drops to -16.4°, the coldest temp recorded since 2008!

Jan 20th-21st: SNOW FOR LABRADOR. SNOW-FREEZING RAIN-RAIN IN NFLD

-Not a huge event for the Province as a whole, however this system prompted Blizzard Warnings along the Coast of Labrador, dropping 10-20 cm of Snow.

Jan 22nd: EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SNOW

-Another system passing along this Winter's most popular track, just SE of the Island. This system was a decent Storm for the Avalon, dropping 22 cm at YYT, 25 in Port Union and 15 cm in Whitbourne. Peak Wind Gusts 80-90 km/h.

Jan 23rd-24th: SNOW SQUALL MACHINE

-This wasn't officially a "Storm" however try to tell that to the folks living along the West & even South Coasts. The Snow Squall machine, as I sometimes call it, was in firing on all cylinders for 2-3 days. Strong Winds, white-out conditions and lots of accumulation for some along the West Coast.

A BREAK.... our only other break since this Winter kicked in.

Jan 30th-31st: LAB WEST STORM, HUGE WARM UP FOR NFLD

-The highlight of this Storm was certainly the warm air. Double digit temperatures pushed in across the Island, breaking numerous records. Rainfall amounts reached 60+ mm in Stephenville and 20-40 mm in . In Western Labrador over 50 cm of Snow in 3 days! Peak winds were clocked at over 100 km/h.

Feb 2nd: EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SNOW

-Yet another system passes Southeast of the Avalon. More shoveling for St. John's, with Snowfall totals in the 12-15 cm range across the Avalon.

Feb 3rd-4th-5th: SNOW FOR LAB. SNOW/RAIN FOR NFLD & WIND FOR ALL

-We could certainly call this one, the strongest Storm of the season for the Province. The central pressure of this one dropped to a very impressive 947 mb! Wind was the big headline with our early February storm. Peak wind gusts were in the 120-140 km/h range. Bonavista had gusts of 122 km/h, which was enough to cause damage. Gander recorded winds gusts of 120 km/h, for the first time in 17 years! 15-30 cm of Snow dropped along the West Coast and we had 15-30 mm of Rain in Eastern Nfld. In Labrador, 64 cm fell in Nain and 52 cm in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, which was the 2nd largest one day snowfall total on record.

Feb 5th: RETURN OF THE SNOW SQUALL MACHINE

-The West Coast takes another pounding.

Feb 6th: EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SNOW

-Our 4th system in 4 weeks passes Southeast of the Avalon dropping yet another 10 cm on St. John's and the Metro area.

Feb 7th: THE ALBERTA CLIPPER

-A quick shot of Snow and Wind for the Island, more Snow Squalls fire up along the West Coast.

Feb 9th-10th: BIG SNOW FOR NFLD

-Last weekend's Storm dropped a lot of Snow across the Island, but the most from Southern Newfoundland and up into Central. The picture above was taken in Rose Blanche last Sunday. In the end, 55 cm in Gander, 49 cm in Terra Nova, 28 cm in Bonavista & 22 cm in St. John's. Peak Wind Gusts over 100 km/h. Wreckhouse tops out at 141 km/h.

Feb 12th: MORE NEWFOUNDLAND SNOW

-Our latest system dropped a widespread 10-20 cm of Snow across the Island. 20 cm in Gander, 18 cm in Stephenville, 12 cm in Deer Lake and 10 cm in St. John's.

AND BREATHE... for a few days anyway. For the first time since late January, we have 3-4 day stretch with no systems rolling in. That all changes again Sunday/Monday with another Snow, Wind & possibly Rain system for NL. (Stay tuned to the Live Blog for more on that) As of now, it appears this will stay some what active with another system mid next week and possibly another system moving through the area next weekend. Of course, this is loooong range and "take it with a grain of salt territory."

Beyond next week, the even longer range 16 day GFS model outlook has been hinting at a bit of a pattern change. That model has been flirting with the idea of a Greenland High type setup for late February and into early March. A quick look at the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) forecasts, shows it's not alone, with forecast models indeed trending toward a pattern change and more negative NAO over the next few weeks.

This is even larger grain of salt territory, but something to watch for sure. A more negative NAO tends to bring Higher pressure over Greenland and Iceland, which can slow down this active West to East pattern of systems we've been seeing over Newfoundland.

We shall see!

Ryan

]]> 7 systems/storms in the past 14 days, 12 in the past month. But is there a pattern change in the long range?

OUR WINTER... SO FAR

2013-02-07T19:32:52Z

It's never dull when you're talking about the Weather in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Winter so far as certainly been interesting. A bit of a slow start again this year, however for Winter lovers, January more than made up for a quiet December. Our 7-10 day Arctic blast to end January was certainly a frosty one and the Storm train is now rolling full steam ahead here into February. We've had cold air and snow... it's been real 'Winter' for most of us.

Here's a quick breakdown of how things have played out so far.

ST. JOHN'S

December was another warmer than normal (+1.9°) month across the Metro region, helping to cap 2012, which was the warmest year on record. December was quiet here in the East. Snowfall was limited to a few cm here and there, with the exception of a 20-25 cm Storm in the middle of the month. Snowfall finished about 25 cm below average. A 30 mm shot of Rain on Tibs Eve, all but washed away our Snow for Christmas.

As we all know, January brought with it our HUGE 50-60 cm blizzard and also a very cold shot of Arctic air, but not until the end of the month. From January 1st-21st, our average High was actually above zero (+0.6°). However to end the month our high was closer to -5°, not including our 10° warm up on the 31st. Based on the 1971-2000 average, January finished just slightly (+0.2°) above normal. Snowfall ended the month at 111 cm, which is 30 cm above average, again mainly thanks to our (official) 52 cm.

Amazing picture taken Jan 28th in Bay Roberts, courtesy of Margaret Ayad.

St. John's Numbers

December: Avg High: +2.11°, Avg Temp: -0.32° / Rain: 100.2 mm, Snow: 36.3 cm

January: Avg High: -0.95°, Avg Temp: -4.58° / Rain: 64.6 mm, Snow: 111.1 cm

GANDER

Temperatures averaged +2.5° warmer than normal in December, but just slightly above average (+0.4°) in January at YQX. If there's one thing that stands out for Central Newfoundland, it's your lack of Snowfall. Just over 100 cm for December-January is near 70 cm below average. Just 3 times over the past 2 months have your received a 10 cm shot of Snow or more. Warm air and rain to end January and again here in early February hasn't helped the Snow situation. This photo was taken on Feb 6th in New Wes Valley. Thanks to Don Sturge!

Gander Numbers

December: Avg High: +0.65°, Avg Temp -1.72° / Rain: 44.8 mm, Snow 54.2 cm

January: Avg High: -3.11°, Avg Temp: -6.97° / Rain: 15.2 mm, Snow 50.8 cm

DEER LAKE

Again, December was warm on the West Coast, averaging +2.7° above normal. January was still warm at +1.7° above average. Snow wise it was a bit of a slow start to December, with just 75 cm. However, since late December and into January the Snow Squall machine has been in full force this Winter, plus a few solid storms, including the West Coast Storm after Christmas. At the Deer Lake Airport, Snowfall totals were average in January, so you now only about 25 cm below average. However, I'm thinking closer to Corner Brook and areas more exposed to Snow Squalls are were likely above average in January.

The Church in Wiltondale on the Great Northern Peninsula. Picture courtesy of Rod Morgan.

Deer Lake Numbers

December: Avg High: +0.82°, Avg Temp: -2.71°, Rain 45 mm, Snow 75.8 cm

January: Avg High: -3.75°, Avg Temp: -7.23°, Rain 17.6 mm, Snow 103 cm

HAPPY VALLEY-GOOSE BAY

December was also warm in Central Labrador. In Happy Valley-Goose Bay temperatures were +4.6° warmer than normal, while January was +1.7°. The warmer than normal temperatures in December certainly didn't hurt the Snowfall totals. 115 cm in December was more than 30 cm above average and enough to put a solid snow base on the ground. At YYR, there has been 30 cm of Snow or more on the ground since December 10th and 70 cm or more since December 31st. Snowfall in January was quiet with just 2 systems dropping 10 cm or more. However, you've made up for that to start February!

Picture courtesy of Melissa Morgan in Happy Valley-Goose Bay.

HV-GB Numbers

December: Avg High: -5.3°, Avg Temp: -9.3° / Rain 2.6 mm, Snow 115.8 cm

January: Avg High: -11.7°, Avg Temp: -16.4° / Rain 7.0 mm, Snow 45.6 cm

LABRADOR CITY

Labrador West was warm in December too, with temperatures averaging +3.8° warmer than average. January finished +1.5° above average. A little bit of Snow most days bumped your Snow totals up 86 cm in December, which is slightly above average. In January there was only 1 day when it didn't Snow in Labrador City, as a result, you picked up a whopping 131 cm of Snow! That's 50 cm above average and the most Snow in the month of January since 2006!

Francis Bolger posted this on my Facebook page, to remind me Winter was still full on in Western Labrador!

Wabush Numbers

December: Avg High: -10.9°, Avg Temp: -14.94° / Rain 11.8 mm, Snow 86.6 cm

January: Avg High: -16.24°, Avg Temp: -21.02° / Rain 1.2 mm, Snow 130.8 cm

A LOOK AHEAD

All indications are that temperatures will continue above average over the next few months. Environment Canada's Climate models are predicting a warmer than normal February and March for most of Newfoundland, while Labrador is forecast to have near normal temperatures.

The long range European forecast model appears to be forecasting the same thing, with warmer than normal temperatures right into early March. Although I know Winter is far from over, I'm thinking our recent 7-8 day blast of Arctic air across the Island in late January, was the worst 'sustained' cold that Newfoundland will see this season. It takes a big Arctic air mass to cool the Island down that much, for that long.

But of course this is Newfoundland and Labrador, where the rules never really apply and only time will tell!

Ryan

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Ryan Snoddon

NL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS

ACTIVE TROPICAL SEASON ON THE WAY

STORM CHASING IN TORNADO ALLEY

On the ground in Moore, Oklahoma

TURNING UP THE THERMOSTAT

LONG RANGE: HIGH PRESSURE & FOG

WARM AIR ON THE WAY!

WAITING FOR THE DOUBLE DIGITS

A LOOK BACK, A LOOK AHEAD

ONSHORE FLOW, ALL WEEK LONG

18 YEARS OF NL WINTER WARMTH

HERE COMES THE RDF

BLOCKING HIGH SET TO RETURN

A MONTH OF MADNESS!

OUR WINTER... SO FAR