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ARTHUR ON THE WAY

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An amazing picture of Hurricane Arthur, taken Thursday by Astronaut Reid Wiseman, aboard the International Space Station. 

UPDATED-FRIDAY 8PM.
For the most recent updates check out the Live Blog Here.

Our 2014 Tropical season is off to quick start. Typically we have to wait until late August or September to get any visitors from the tropics, however Arthur is set to pay us a visit this weekend. Here's what we can expect... 

ARTHUR TRACK & STRENGTH
Hurricane Arthur is spinning back out into the Atlantic Ocean, after making landfall in North Carolina last night. Forecast model guidance continues to be in good agreement that Arthur will roll Northward making landfall in Nova Scotia on Saturday, as it transitions to a Post Tropical Storm, before rolling into NL on Saturday night & Sunday. 

Don't be fooled by that 'Post Tropical' classification. Post Tropical just means the Storm will have changed the way that it functions & fuels itself. As a Hurricane, Arthur is currently fueling itself from the warm Atlantic ocean water & convection. When Arthur moves this far North, it will change the way it functions and will get it's fuel from temperature contrasts instead.

So what does that mean? Well, even though Arthur will be Post Tropical, it will likely remain at Category 1 Hurricane strength as it rolls through the Maritimes on Saturday. By the time it reaches Southwestern Newfoundland on Saturday night, it will likely be Tropical Storm strength with projected sustained winds near 100 km/h & gusts to 120 km/h near the centre of the Storm. It will continue to weaken as it tracks up through Western Newfoundland on Sunday, however will likely remain Tropical Storm strength until it departs into the North Atlantic on Sunday evening. This is of course the centre of the Storm, however the impacts of will be felt far to the West & East of the centre of the Storm. 

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The many different forecast models (each a different line) are in good agreement with a track through Western Newfoundland, Saturday night & Sunday. 

RAIN
The heaviest rain from Arthur will fall along and to the West of the track. The rain will begin long before the storm arrives as a trough comes into the region and moisture funnels up and into Atlantic Canada beginning today, before the heavier rains move in for Saturday & Sunday. The Maritimes is currently set to take the brunt of the Rainfall where forecast models are showing some 80-100+ mm bulls-eyes. The heaviest swath of Rain will then track up into Gulf of St. Lawrence & Southeastern Newfoundland, clipping the West Coast of the Island and then across the Northern Peninsula. Forecast models are dropping a solid swath 30-50 mm of rain by Sunday night. Within that overall area, forecast models are projecting some localized pockets of 50+ mm from the Northern Peninsula to Cartwright to the Lower North shore of Quebec. Stay tuned to the Live Blog for updates on rainfall totals as the storm gets closer.
For Central & Eastern Newfoundland, rain won't be big deal at all. A band of rain will work in Saturday night & into Sunday, with total amounts near 5-15 mm by Sunday night.

WIND
The strongest winds with these storms are along & East of the track. For Newfoundland, the strongest winds look set for Southwestern Newfoundland where we could see gusts 80-100+ km/h (especially in Wreckhouse) as the centre of Arthur approaches for Saturday night. For the rest of the West Coast, South Coast, as well as Central, Northeast & Eastern Newfoundland we'll likely see gusts in the 60-80+ km/h range (strongest along the Coasts) on the menu for Saturday night & through Sunday. This may not sound like much compared with some of the Winter storms we see and that's true, however this time of year, the trees are loaded heavy with leaves and they catch a lot more wind. With that in mind, we could certainly see some tree limbs come down. 
Depending on the track, coastal Southeastern Labrador from Groswater Bay to Mary's Harbour and the East side of the Northern Peninsula could also see some strong gusts (60-80 km/h) on Sunday night & into Monday morning. 

WAVES
We'll see some good sized waves along the South Coast of the Island Saturday night into Sunday, with wave heights in the 3-6 metre range. 

Stay tuned for updates as Arthur moves in and through the Province over the next 24-48 hours. The live blog will have fresh updates through Friday & the Weekend at: cbc.ca/ryansnoddon

Ryan

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