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2014 HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK


It's that time of year again.
Although this Spring has been a little sluggish to get going for much of the Province, we will soon be into the month of June, which is the official beginning of the 2014 tropical storm & hurricane season. 
As always, the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Climate Predication Centre has released its prediction for the Atlantic tropical storm season and the next 6 months are expected to be quieter than average.
NOAA's forecasters are projecting at 50% chance of a below average season, 40% chance of an average season & just a 10% chance of an above average number of storms. 
This year NOAA is predicting overall numbers of 8-13 named storms, of which 3-6 could become Hurricanes, including 1-2 major hurricane. 
The 1981-2010 average is 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes & 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are Categories 3, 4 or 5.

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OTHER PREDICTIONS
Private weather companies in the U.S. like Accuweather (10 named storms & 5 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes) & The Weather Channel (11 named storms & 5 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes) are also forecasting a below average season. 

CSU Updated Forecast June 2nd: Well respected Meteorologist Dr. William Grey & his team at Colorado State University are also predicting a quieter season with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, including 1 major hurricane.

12 of the past 20 hurricane seasons have been above average, with the Tropical Atlantic, however this year year that periods of high activity is expected to be subdued.   

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MAIN FACTORS
A developing El Nino in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, is expected to have a major influence on the Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season. An 'El Nino' is warmer than normal water in the Tropical Pacific and when that happens we often see stronger trade winds and stronger wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. Those stronger winds typically hinder tropical storm development and strengthening as thunderstorms are blown apart as they rise into higher atmosphere. Ocean temperatures are also expected to be near average, as opposed to above average which should also keep storm numbers lower. 

IT ONLY TAKES ONE
With all of this said, there will certainly be storms firing up in the Tropical Atlantic this Summer and Fall and we'll have to keep a watchful eye. As we've seen over the past few years, it only takes one storm in a season to track into the Province and cause damage.
Climatology stats show that 1-2 storms per year, directly affect Atlantic Canada. 2-3 threaten our offshore waters. 
In terms of when we see Storms here in Newfoundland, no month compares to September. Since 1900, 33 named Storms have made landfall in Newfoundland! Percentage wise, more than 40% of our named storms have made landfall in September!

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List of Hurricane Names for 2014
Did you know that Hurricane names are used in rotation and re-used every six years? The exception of course is when we see a large destructive storm like Hurricane Igor or Hurricane Katrina. Those names are retired and won't be used again. Here is this years list of names.






Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred


Ryan

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