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ACTIVE TROPICAL SEASON ON THE WAY
June 10, 2013 8:06 PM
Well, our first brush with a Tropical system this season, wasn't anything to write home about. However as expected, Andrea did drop a pretty decent shot of Rain over the Southeastern parts of the Island this weekend. About 60 mm of rain was recorded on the Burin Peninsula.
June 1st is the beginning of Tropical Storm & Hurrricane Season, so although Andrea was an early season storm, we've certainly had plenty of June storms. Even here in NL, we've had a few. Since 1900, 3 named Storms have made landfall in NL, in June. 1945's Hurricane One. 1959's Hurricane Three and 1995's Allison. All 3 were Post Tropical Storms when they reached NL.
In terms of when we see Storms here in Newfoundland, no month compares to September. Since 1900, 33 named Storms have made landfall in Newfoundland! Percentage wise, more than 40% of our named storms have made landfall in September!
2013 SEASON PREVIEW
Over the past few weeks, the Hurricane experts at the National Weather Service and well respected scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) have released and updated their 2013 Hurricane season outlooks. Both outlooks are similar and predict an active Atlantic Hurricane season.
NOAA is predicting between 13 and 20 Named Tropical Storms, of which 7-11 will become Hurricanes, of which 3-6 will develop into a Major Hurricane (Category 3-5). Colorado State University is also predicting an above average year with 18 Named Storms, including 4 Major Hurricanes.
There are a few main factors that go into this years forecast.
-Continuation of the ongoing era of high Hurricane activity in the Atlantic since 1995. The warm (positive) AMO continues with a strong West African monsoon and a strong Easterly jet.
-Neutral phase of ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) is expected to continue. An El Nino phase can be a hindrance for Tropical Storm development, by increasing wind shear in the Caribbean.
-Warmer than average water temperatures are expected in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean. Note the warmer than normal temperatures here in Atlantic Canada already. This will be something to keep an eye on, especially later in the season.
ACTIVE FOR NEWFOUNDLAND
The active pattern means Newfoundland will once again have to keep a close eye on developing Storms, which is something the Island should be getting accustomed to. Newfoundland has had a land falling Tropical Storm or Hurricane every year since 2009, with Leslie, Ophelia, Maria, Igor & Bill.
We've also seen some powerful Post Tropical Storms in recent years. Everyone remembers Chantal in 2007 and Gabrielle, which actually tracked just East of the Avalon in 2001 and brought flooding rains to St. John's.
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