View all posts »
WARM AIR ON THE WAY!
April 18, 2013 1:43 PM
Well the Weekend is almost here... and so too is the warm air! It's been a relatively average or even cooler than average April in terms of temperatures. Of course, temperatures warm through the month of April, with the warmest temperatures typically coming in the 2nd half of the month, however here's where we are in terms of daily highs from April 1st-April 17th.
St. John's: Avg Daily High: 4.5° (1971-2000 April Avg: 5.2°)
Gander: Avg Daily High: 4.1° (1971-2000 April Avg: 5.2°)
Deer Lake: Avg Daily High: 5.3° (1971-2000 April Avg: 6.1°)
Goose Bay: Avg Daily High: 2.4° (1971-2000 April Avg: 3.3°)
Labrador City: Avg Daily High: -0.8° (1971-2000 April Avg: +0.9°)
So we have some ground to make up here in the 2nd half of the month. Some good news from this past week, Happy Valley-Goose Bay (for the 2nd time this Spring) Cartwright and Deer Lake all officially hit double digits this week! For Deer Lake, 10.2° on Tuesday was the first official double digit temperature recorded on the Island this Spring and first since late January.
-Much of Newfoundland will be well into the double digits this Weekend as a system rolls up the Eastern half of North America, bringing a strong Southwesterly flow along with it. The warm front from this system will move across the Province on Friday bringing flurries and showers (and some accumulating snow for Labrador) before the warm air pushes in behind with showers for Saturday. Here's the latest European forecast model outlook, looking at 2 metre temperatures in 3° intervals for Saturday.
-You can see with a track far enough West, even Labrador will be taping into this warm air mass on Saturday.
-By Sunday (above), the cold front will push through Labrador and drop temperatures back below zero. The West Coast will be cooler on Sunday, however Central and Eastern Newfoundland will continue to see the warm air mass.
-The forecast indeed looks warm this Weekend, however you don't get temperatures into the teens in Newfoundland in April, without a strong Southerly wind pumping in it in. Winds do look strong on Saturday especially across the Island, with gusts in the 60-70 km/h range, even 80+ km/h right along parts of the Coast on Saturday. Winds will be lighter on Sunday, with gusts in the 40-60 range.
-The clouds look set to dominate on Saturday across the Island, with a few showers, but also a few Sunny breaks for East and Central Newfoundland. Clouds & showers look most dominate for Western Newfoundland and into Labrador. Fog looks likely for the South Coast with that moist onshore flow.
-By Sunday, the clouds and a few showers from our cold front will move into Eastern Newfoundland. Clearing skies over Western and into Central Newfoundland with a better chance of Sun.
NEXT WEEK- WILL HIGH PRESSURE HOLD?
-High pressure and cooler temperatures will funnel into the Province in behind our Weekend system for Sunday night and into Monday, but won't last long.
-A Southerly flow looks set to return on the backside of that High and ahead of our next system. As a result, temperatures look set to rise again Tuesday-Wednesday of next week, with forecast models again flirting with double digit temperatures.
-That system off to our West will continue to edge closer and could bring some showers into the mix for Wednesday/Thursday, especially for Labrador. However much will depend on the strength of that High, which could keep the Island dry & even bright. Either way, a Southerly flow should keep temperatures mild.
-Mid-late next week will be a very interesting set-up indeed. With the trough of low pressure and unsettled weather just off to the West and High pressure holding strong just to our East/Southeast, it looks like a big old battle between the two. (Cue the movie trailer voice) "Who will be stronger? Can the area of High pressure hold, all-week-long?"
-If that high can't hold, the Island would turn damp and unsettled as the trough moves Eastward for the latter half of the week. Stay tuned.
-As Thursday afternoon, the GFS, GEM & Euro area are all holding that High strong, just off to our Southeast perhaps right into next Weekend. That would keep the Island mostly dry and mild/warm with a Southerly flow through next week. However Labrador, would be unsettled.
-Environment Canada's 10 day Ensemble Outlook backs up the warmer the normal outlook through next Week here in Atlantic Canada.
-The latest Long Range NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecasting System) system outlook goes one step further, showing warmer than normal temperatures continuing into early May for Newfoundland and Labrador.
-A quick check of the latest European Monthly Outlook also shows a mostly dominate South or Southwesterly flow and warmer than normal temperatures for the remainder of April. In fact, it goes one step further and holds this pattern setup into the first half of May across the Island.
View all posts »