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WAITING FOR THE DOUBLE DIGITS

April1113-2.jpgI thought I would begin with a beautiful shot from Portland, Bonavista Bay, courtesy of Maurice Simmonds. This picture proves that even a grey foggy day can be a gorgeous day in parts of NL. 

You know, it really hasn't been a bad start to April, but I'm sure getting plenty of questions asking... "When are we REALLY going to warm up?" Following the warmest April on record in St. John's & just an overall great Spring for NL last year, it's understandable that everyone is 'chomping at the bit'. 

THE RACE TO 10°

We've had a few days flirting with 10° so far this month, last Friday was the first one and this past Tuesday was the other, however no official 10° temps recorded at official EC weather stations so far this month. The funny thing is, St. John's, Gander & Deer Lake have all hit the magic 10° mark this year. However it was way back during the huge 'Winter Storm' warm up on January 31st... and we haven't returned to that mark since. Happy Valley-Goose Bay hit 10° with a big warm up back on March 14th. Stephenville hit 9.8° on April 1st and that's your warmest temperature this year. Labrador City your warmest temp so far is 4.7° on April 1st. 

Stat: We still have more than half a month to go, but interesting that the last time we didn't reach double digits at YYT in March OR April, was 2001. It took us until May 7th, when we hit 11°. We reached 20° just 2 days later! Of course, we were coming out of the famous Winter of 2000-2001 :)

THE RACE TO 15°

Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost tweeted this chart out last week. It shows the first date each region has reached 15 degrees over the past 5 years. 

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Last year was of course unprecedented here in St. John's. We hit 15° and 20° degrees for the first time last year on the same day, April 17th and then did it again the next day! In the end, St. John's hit 15° a total of 6 times last April... and again 2 of the those days we went on to hit 20°. Remember, that was the warmest April on record. :) 

SHORTER RANGE

Temperatures will hover near or slightly below normal for the rest of this week and into the Weekend as well. However as our Weekend system departs, an area of high pressure will move into the region. It looks like that High will indeed set-up for a day or 2 (Mon-Tues) next week, which will allow for some warming temps. As of now, looks like we'll certainly see some high single digit temps across the Island and perhaps even flirt with double digits in some spots in West/Central. 

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How warm we get, will depend on the set-up of that High and the speed of our next system, which at this point, forecast models are bringing in for Wednesday. Still a few ideas on this one, which looks set bring another wet snow/rain threat. 

LATE NEXT WEEK WARM SHOT

Following our mid-week system the LONG range forecast models have been hinting at a system for late next week (Fri-Sat), which could bring a solid shot of warm air and rain up the Eastern Seaboard and into Atlantic Canada. Again, this is long range... but right now this looks like our next real chance at some wide spread double digit temperatures across the Island. 

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Here's a look at the NAEFS (North American Emsemble Forecast System) Outlook which shows temperatures 8-14 days from now... (April 18th to April 25th). As you can see it's expected that temperatures will warm slightly towards the end of the month, with normal to above normal temperatures expected.

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A quick look at the weekly ECMWF month long forecast model, backs up this idea showing a warm up for the week of the 22nd and more seasonal temperatures for the end April and into early May. It's also showing seasonal to above seasonal temps for the first full week of May. Again, this is an extremely long range forecast model, big grain of salt territory, but fun to look at for sure! 

NEW STUDY FINDS MORE PRECIPITATION IN FUTURE STORMS

In the Climate File this week, a new NOAA led study has found that a warming world will further intensify extreme precipitation events.

The study reports that as the globe warms from rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will be capable of holding moisture, which will make the most extreme precip events, even more intense. 

"We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events" says Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D, senior research professor at CICS-NC and lead author of the paper. 


Ryan 

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