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LONG RANGE: HIGH PRESSURE & FOG

Hey Folks,


The warmer Spring time air has arrived in NL and it appears (generally speaking) it's not going anywhere! 

-Over the past week, much of NL had it's first taste of double digits. Corner Brook, Gander, Badger, Bonavista & many more hit 15° this past Saturday. St. John's, Stephenville, Twillingate & a few more ended up falling just short of the magic 15° mark. Deer Lake was the big winner with temps of 20°.

-Tuesday, Thursday and even today here in the East, temperatures rebounded with more double digits and temps back into the teens! Daniel's Harbour hit 20° on Thursday and for St. John's, Friday it was our first 15° day of the season! 

-Here's Rodney Barney's chart of when we typically hit the 15° mark across the Island. This Spring, we've been right in that range for Newfoundland. Your turn is coming Labrador!

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WEEKEND TIME

-A Significant Freezing Rain event still looks likely for tonight over the Northern Peninsula and Southeastern Labrador tonight. Freezing Rain Warnings are in place with some solid ice accretion possible. Treacherous roads and even some power outages are certainly possible.

-Tonight and into Saturday will continue very wet in Western Newfoundland. Rainfall Warnings remain in place for Western Newfoundland & the Southwest Coast. Showers continue in Central on Saturday and another warm, pleasant but mostly cloudy day here in Eastern Newfoundland. 

-Our trough slowly edges Eastward on Sunday, bringing some relief for the West Coast, a few more showers for Central, and a better chance of some showers & fog in the mix (especially along the Coast) in Eastern Newfoundland.

-Things turn nasty in Southeast Labrador tonight and into Saturday with Snow, Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain & Rain. Could see 5-10 cm from the Straits to Cartwright. It looks like High pressure will keep HV-GB in the clear, with Western Labrador looking great as well. Temps building through the Weekend and back into the double digits and teens by Sunday-Monday in HV-GB. 15° looks like a lock for you folks with 20° looking possible by mid-week.

NEXT WEEK

An interesting setup next week to say the least. High pressure will move North of the Island as we head into early next week. Looks like that setup will trigger a pesky Northeasterly wind flow for the Northeast Coast of Newfoundland and for St. John's Metro. Monday & Tuesday in particular, are looking cool & cloudy with fog in the mix. However with a Northeast flow, inland areas into Central, as well as the South & West Coasts are looking at warming temperatures & some Sunshine in the mix.

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By mid-late next week, some forecast models are bringing that High just far enough South over the Island, that the pesky moist Northeasterly flow would shift further South, which would allowing Metro & the Northeast Coast to warm up slightly (closer to seasonal) & perhaps even allow some Sunshine to break through during the daytime hours. However if that High stays further North... we could be hitting repeat on Monday/Tuesday for much of the week. Keep your fingers crossed! 

Again areas shielded from that Northeast flow, including Central, Western and Southern Newfoundland, as well as Labrador are looking really nice, especially mid-late next week. Forecast models are again flirting with temps into the mid-high teens!

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THE NEXT 10 DAYS

Here's the GEM Global Model ensemble look at temperatures over the next 10 days. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to continue across much of Atlantic Canada & especially in Labrador. Again, I think St. John's & exposed Northeast Coast will very much be dependent on the placement of that High pressure and just how strong and persistent those Northeast winds will be mid-late next week.

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THE NEXT 14 DAYS

The North American Ensemble Forecast System looks at temps 8-14 days into the long range. It's also showing a good chance of warmer than normal temperatures across Atlantic Canada through for the first week of May.

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EUROPEAN MONTHLY MODEL OUTLOOK

The ECMWF has a 30 day forecast model, which released once a week. Here here a few 'grain of salt' highlights from that, for the month of May.

May 5th-11th
-Plenty of High pressure. A quiet pattern, with no big systems rolling through. Temps normal to above normal.

May 12th-18th
-High pressure continues in the mix, holding over Labrador through mid week, before turning unsettled late week. Temps near normal, with potential East or Northeast winds for Newfoundland. 

May 19th-25th
-Overall dry again, with high pressure dominates just to the North and over the Labrador Sea. Again, this setup brings the potential for East or Northeast winds for the Island. Temps near normal. 

Again, big grain of salt territory, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. 

Environment Canada will issue their outlook for the month of May on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll be sure to pass it along. 

Ryan

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